Special Statement Issued by NHC

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drezee
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Special Statement Issued by NHC

#1 Postby drezee » Wed Aug 13, 2003 1:29 pm

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2:30 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2003

AN AIR FORCE PLANE HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND SO FAR IT HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO FIND A
CLOSED CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...IT MEASURED WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OF LOWEST
PRESSURE WITHIN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BECAUSE SATELLITE IMAGES
SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND
A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY FORM AT ANY TIME...ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WILL CHECK THE SYSTEM THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE WESTWARD BRINGING SQUALLY WEATHER OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...FLORIDA AND THE KEYS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON LOCAL WEATHER
CAN BE FOUND IN STATEMENTS ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICES.

FORECASTER AVILA
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#2 Postby Guest » Wed Aug 13, 2003 1:31 pm

Woohoo Game is ON!

Thanks Dreeze
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Rainband

#3 Postby Rainband » Wed Aug 13, 2003 1:31 pm

Go figure :roll: I guess a picture tells a thousand words!!! :wink:
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#4 Postby Stormsfury » Wed Aug 13, 2003 1:32 pm

Note: Look who wrote the special statement ... Avila. Game on.

SF
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#5 Postby drezee » Wed Aug 13, 2003 1:38 pm

I like Avila
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#6 Postby Johnny » Wed Aug 13, 2003 1:38 pm

Do any of y'all see anymore weakening phases with this system?
I sure don't since the experts in here have basically said that conditions will improve dramtically once it enters the GOM.
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#7 Postby Stormsfury » Wed Aug 13, 2003 1:40 pm

*LOL* -

Did anyone notice the date? July 25th? ...

SF
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#8 Postby mf_dolphin » Wed Aug 13, 2003 1:41 pm

This means they could issue TS watches. I don't think I've ever seen them do it without having an official depression, but there's no reason why they can't. The combination of proximity to land and no closed low (yet) may put them in an uncomfortable situation. :-)
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#9 Postby Rainband » Wed Aug 13, 2003 1:44 pm

Stormsfury wrote:*LOL* -

Did anyone notice the date? July 25th? ...

SF
Nervous maybe lol
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#10 Postby Guest » Wed Aug 13, 2003 1:45 pm

Stormsfury wrote:*LOL* -

Did anyone notice the date? July 25th? ...

SF


Is the date just wrong or is it a bogus statement?
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#11 Postby drezee » Wed Aug 13, 2003 1:47 pm

Date is wrong...

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25.0N7 77.0W4 TO 24.0N6 73.0W0
SOUTH OF 26.0N8 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 40 KNOTS. METSAT IM­
AGERY AT 131200Z7 INDICATES ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
2. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER IS ANALYZING A 1011MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NR 23.4N9 75.4W6 AT 1200Z.UPPER LEVEL MINIMAL SHEAR EXIST OVER LOW AT
THIS TIME AND FORECASTS INDICATE SHEAR WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS ANALYZED TO BE 83F (28C).
3. REF A OTSR TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY THIS SYSTEM.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 141330Z2.//
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#12 Postby mf_dolphin » Wed Aug 13, 2003 1:49 pm

The technical terms for that is "OOPS" :-)
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#13 Postby alicia-w » Wed Aug 13, 2003 1:51 pm

they probably just used the last one as a template. the header for this message says:

000
WONT41 KNHC 131824
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2:30 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2003

they just forgot to edit the text of the message.
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#14 Postby drezee » Wed Aug 13, 2003 2:22 pm

They reissued it
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#15 Postby drezee » Wed Aug 13, 2003 6:51 pm

Here is the reissue

693
WONT41 KNHC 131844
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2:30 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2003

AN AIR FORCE PLANE HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND SO FAR IT HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO FIND A
CLOSED CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...IT MEASURED WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OF LOWEST
PRESSURE WITHIN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BECAUSE SATELLITE IMAGES
SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND
A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY FORM AT ANY TIME...ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WILL CHECK THE SYSTEM THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE WESTWARD BRINGING SQUALLY WEATHER OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...FLORIDA AND THE KEYS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON LOCAL WEATHER
CAN BE FOUND IN STATEMENTS ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICES.

FORECASTER AVILA
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#16 Postby southerngale » Wed Aug 13, 2003 7:13 pm

Isn't that the same one as earlier?
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#17 Postby deb_in_nc » Wed Aug 13, 2003 7:20 pm

The date is right this time.
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