ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[eastcoastFL]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

is that the center east of key largo?

[eastcoastFL]

is there a back side of this storm?

[petit_bois]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

is that the center east of key largo?

hard to see anything moving from west to east there. She may be open at this point.

[Steve]

>>We keep these (ULL)around and 2010 may really turn out to be a bust quantity wise.

Actually these types of "concentric" upper level lows which migrate throughout the basin in the early part of the season are often signatures of both active and US-threat seasons. You most often see them in +/- El Neutral years whereas you often have persistent tutt lows in strong El Nino years and splitting troughs in strong La Nina years. While it seems they are inhibitors now, that's not going to be the case as the pattern evolves. Trust me on that.

[sandyb]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-avn.html


look behind bonnie has she left something behind for us to get excited about?

[Bocadude85]

One gust of wind and the power goes out... go figure

[artist]

One gust of wind and the power goes out... go figure

so you've lost power in Boca?

[Bocadude85]

One gust of wind and the power goes out... go figure

so you've lost power in Boca?

Nope I am at work in Deerfield Beach..power was off for about 20mins or so as one of the heavier squalls moved through.

[Stormcenter]

I'm not saying because of this ULL this is not going to be an active season.
All I'm saying if we have them around at the right times they are truely a blessing.
I take them (storms) one at a time. If we don't have this ULL in GOM right now I'm pretty confident Bonnie is much more of a problem for everyone especially the GOM coastline. IMO

>>We keep these (ULL)around and 2010 may really turn out to be a bust quantity wise.

Actually these types of "concentric" upper level lows which migrate throughout the basin in the early part of the season are often signatures of both active and US-threat seasons. You most often see them in +/- El Neutral years whereas you often have persistent tutt lows in strong El Nino years and splitting troughs in strong La Nina years. While it seems they are inhibitors now, that's not going to be the case as the pattern evolves. Trust me on that.

[StormClouds63]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-avn.html


look behind bonnie has she left something behind for us to get excited about?

I think that's the moisture Joe B. had mentioned the other day when he hinted at possible development later next week. I don't subscribe to his service, so I don't know if he still believes development possible next week in the GOM. If you look at an overall water vapor image of the entire Atlantic basin, things don't look conducive for any significant development in the next few days. Lots of shear, ULLs, and dry air ... but things can change rather quickly. IMO, we wait until August before we see a hint of Colin.

Bonnie not looking well ATM. Perhaps she drops back down to TD status later today. Looks like the west/northwest track established.

[Steve]

>>I'm not saying because of this ULL this is not going to be an active season. All I'm saying if we have them around at the right times they are truely a blessing. I take them (storms) one at a time. If we don't have this ULL in GOM right now I'm pretty confident Bonnie is much more of a problem for everyone especially the GOM coastline. IMO

I understood what you were saying, but I wanted to point out that it's definitely an ominous signal for August-September.

[HURAKAN]

Radar

[hurricaneCW]

A recent convective blow-up should help keep Bonnie as a TS. All she is really doing is tailgating the massive ULL. That's a massive ULL, I'm surprised we have one so big in late July during a La Nina. I wonder if we'll see any more this season.

[eastcoastFL]

Its raining pretty hard right now! Wind picked up

[Stormcenter]

I and I'm sure many others are hoping those "onimous" signs don't pan out.

>>I'm not saying because of this ULL this is not going to be an active season. All I'm saying if we have them around at the right times they are truely a blessing. I take them (storms) one at a time. If we don't have this ULL in GOM right now I'm pretty confident Bonnie is much more of a problem for everyone especially the GOM coastline. IMO

I understood what you were saying, but I wanted to point out that it's definitely an ominous signal for August-September.

[xironman]

Windy http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=fwyf1

Code: Select all

ID      T1 TIME    LAT     LON DIST HDG WDIR  WSPD   GST  WVHT   DPD   APD MWD   PRES  PTDY 
           (GMT)                 nm  °T   °T   kts   kts    ft   sec   sec  °T     in    in 
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FWYF1    C 1400  25.59  -80.10    0   0   70    40    46     -     -     -   -  29.82 -0.08   

[hurricanefloyd5]

homestead looks to be a landfall area??!!!!!!!!!

[Category 5]

Looks like we are really gonna luck out with Bonnie, if not for this shear, I don't wanna think about it.

Important to remember, weak or not, it won't take a cat 3 to push more oil ashore, and its gonna come in at a bad angle it looks like when it makes landfall in the gulf, it will be weak, but the main impact will likely be oil.

[Bocadude85]

Another pretty good rain squall coming through right now

[ConvergenceZone]

Welcome back KWT ...I was wondering where you were yesterday in the heat of excitement....

I've been hoping this storm would get going, but as I mentioned last night, it just hasn't looked that healthy, like it wanted to get going but the shear was just too much...As they say, you never say never in the tropics, but this tiny storm doesn't look like it's going to do much.