ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - MODELS

[chzzdekr81]

Models move east dramatically.

[TheBurn]

[Ivanhater]

The NHC really likes to use the TVCN model (the silver line) and right now shows just SW of Nola.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I saw this image posted on another blog and thought it would be worth posting here..



It shows where the models initialized vs. the actual position of the LLC based on recon.

The actual storm center looks to be just north of all the current model initializations.

**Keep in mind: This image is not static and updates. It will show something completely different in a few hours compared to what it is showing now.

[MGC]

We will get a better picture on this once recon data is fed into the models...but, I'm with Aqua on this as the models almost allways erode the ridge too quickly......MGC

[Ivanhater]

[caneman]

We'll need to keep an eye on any slow down as well. Look at the bend North and NE within 1 day of landfall. Will be interesting to see what happens.

[TexasF6]

I think the models will shift back west due to the strength of the High Pressure being underestimated by these models. I think Wxman57 was right on his thinking, if I recall correctly he mentioned this movement to NW being temporary. Also, I hope Bonnie or TD3 does not go over this oil and bring it onshore....that would be a catastrophe.....

[ROCK]

Ivan...and your TVCN.....next you are going to post the NAM...

[Ivanhater]

Ivan...and your TVCN.....next you are going to post the NAM...

The TVCN is actually the NHC's preferred model, they usually go with that one for the track. Now the NAM is only fun to post if it has eye candy, which it only shows some light showers moving into the Nola area

[allicat1214]

I think the models will shift back west due to the strength of the High Pressure being underestimated by these models. I think Wxman57 was right on his thinking, if I recall correctly he mentioned this movement to NW being temporary. Also, I hope Bonnie or TD3 does not go over this oil and bring it onshore....that would be a catastrophe.....

Depending on the eventual strength, it wouldn't have to pass right over the oil spill area to make it a catastrophe.

I live in SELA and we've have several floods due to TS and hurricanes that hit as far away as NW TX coast. A storm making landfall to the west of NOLA will mean an onshore flow of water and winds, and that means the oil will infiltrate the marshes of St Bernard and Plaquemines, and in the Barataria Basin, and possibly invade Lake Pontchartrain as well.

[Stormcenter]

I actually thought the NHC put a lot weight on the GFS model.

Ivan...and your TVCN.....next you are going to post the NAM...

The TVCN is actually the NHC's preferred model, they usually go with that one for the track. Now the NAM is only fun to post if it has eye candy, which it only shows some light showers moving into the Nola area

[AdamFirst]

At this stage of the game I'd only trust the XTRP

[jlauderdal]

At this stage of the game I'd only trust the XTRP

xtrap isnt looking to bad right now

[Stratosphere747]

Ivan...and your TVCN.....next you are going to post the NAM...

The TVCN is actually the NHC's preferred model, they usually go with that one for the track. Now the NAM is only fun to post if it has eye candy, which it only shows some light showers moving into the Nola area

Correct.

You can generally get a good idea on what the upcoming track will be by looking at the updated TVCN plot when it comes out a hour or so before the NHC releases its full package.

It has been like that for the last few years.

[ROCK]

Ivan...and your TVCN.....next you are going to post the NAM...

The TVCN is actually the NHC's preferred model, they usually go with that one for the track. Now the NAM is only fun to post if it has eye candy, which it only shows some light showers moving into the Nola area

Correct.

You can generally get a good idea on what the upcoming track will be by looking at the updated TVCN plot when it comes out a hour or so before the NHC releases its full package.

It has been like that for the last few years.

However Scott is just a blend of the GFS and its cousins...average if you will. Not a model in its own right. I could blend some models right now to make a forecast....thats why its important not to focus on the line but the cone....

[Stratosphere747]

Paul,

The TVCN also incorporates the EURO.

[Countrygirl911]

when does the next models come out

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

For the western/central Gulf...models shifted one way yesterday, another today, they are going to
go back and forth for the next couple days...To get a clear idea of future
path, the properties of the ridge would be critical...how far does the axis
of the ridge extend for example...I don't recall but there is some type
of graphic similar to water vapor where you can watch the ridge build or see
other features moving around its periphery...the use of such a tool would clarify things
I think.

[clfenwi]

18Z HWRF



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