ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - MODELS

[Wx_Warrior]

How can you let a run like that go out!!! CMC = LOL

[HouTXmetro]

WHat is the double punch mess? I'm confused.

[petit_bois]

WHat is the double punch mess? I'm confused.

it shows td 3 rolling in to LA/TX followed by another right on it's heals a day later

[sjmballer]

yes im confused to on that cmc double punch...btw good afternoon storm2k ..port arthur, tx in the house

[clfenwi]

12Z HWRF similar to 06Z (as far as ultimate landfall goes, at least)



full loop

[caneman]

Please stop with the Euro crap. It's old and tired. How about a little help here mods. Last I checked Euro has it going over Cuba and dying. The NHC uses all models for a reason. Nuff said.........

WRONG!!!!!!!

You my friend are entitled to your opinion. Euro may be right more than others have lately but it doesn't change the fact that there has been a sickening cheerleading/love fest of the Euro that has taken place since last year on this board (keeping many people away). The NHC still uses all models so it's wise for everyone to take that into consideration. I respect your Met degree but it doesn't change those facts. With that said, I'm done with this subject and hopefully this board returns to Storm2k and not the Euro2k (otherwise, I as I'm sure others will just lurk). How about a seperate thread for a Euro love fest?

[tolakram]

I don't get it. The euro is just a model, we should be rooting for all models to be more accurate. If it was called the American would this change your opinion? Seriously, it's the anti-euro crowd I don't get. This is a place for discussion of models and model output, period.

[caneman]

It crosses the line when it becomes cheerleading and make no mistake it has since last year. Now I'm done. Lets move on.......

[cycloneye]

This is a place for discussion of models and model output, period.

Exactly,the thread is not to discuss about one model.

[Steve]

Gotta agree a little with caneman here. I favor the ECMWF over any other model, but its success in progging Western Gulf storms in 2010 is literally by default. Everyone should know that, and cheerleading for models is, I don't know, about the same as state casting since it's obvious that many of the people who worship or cheer for the European are in Western areas of the basin. There isn't any denying that. I always went out of my way not to do that and earned whatever respect I get around here, even if I haven't posted much in a few years, to being as objective and non-biased as possible.

As far as people freaking on the "double punch", go to Accuweather and watch Joe B's video from yesterday. Not sure if he's right or if he's wrong, but the setup was for this storm (TD #3) to come through without major problems but clearing the way for remnant moisture from TD #3 and the next wave to put something in the Central Gulf mid next week with much greater potential. Stay tuned even if you're not likely to see anything until Sunday or Monday (if ever).

Steve

[petit_bois]

When doe the next euro come out?
curious what it's going to do now that we have a defined center.

[TheBurn]

[Agua]

The models will likely continue trending west as they have historically had a problem with eroding ridges too quickly beyond 3 days. That's just my personal observation and not grounded in a quantitative study of any sort.

[Wx_Warrior]

12Z EURO:

Has it as TS or TD then weakens as it approaches TX/LA on Sunday.

[ROCK]

12Z EURO:

Has it as TS or TD then weakens as it approaches TX/LA on Sunday.

sounds consistant with its earlier runs...... all hail the ECM!! cheerleading? more like trying to persuade some there is another dynamic model other than the GFS and its cousins...

[Jagno]

I'm having some difficulty imagining a storm actually decreasing in intesity throughout the Gulf since this is not historically the case down here in the Gulf hot tub, nevertheless, I pray these are right and it doesn't intensify.

I do beg of you folks to please stop the model wars. There are alot of us on here who just want the information and facts from all of the reputable models and why you agree or disagree with the projection. State your opinion without bashing someone elses. We Gulf Coasters have a hell of alot more on the line this year along the Gulf coast besides rain and wind and this bickering back and forth isn't helping us to make informed decisions now, let alone when much larger systems come in.

[Ivanhater]

18z update

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1820 UTC THU JUL 22 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE (AL032010) 20100722 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100722  1800   100723  0600   100723  1800   100724  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    22.2N  74.9W   23.0N  77.5W   24.4N  80.0W   25.3N  82.4W
BAMD    22.2N  74.9W   23.4N  77.6W   24.7N  80.8W   26.0N  84.1W
BAMM    22.2N  74.9W   23.2N  77.4W   24.4N  80.0W   25.5N  82.6W
LBAR    22.2N  74.9W   23.0N  76.9W   24.1N  79.6W   25.4N  82.5W
SHIP        30KTS          33KTS          38KTS          42KTS
DSHP        30KTS          33KTS          38KTS          42KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100724  1800   100725  1800   100726  1800   100727  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    26.6N  84.9W   28.6N  89.6W   30.8N  93.3W   33.0N  94.6W
BAMD    27.4N  87.3W   30.7N  92.3W   34.0N  95.0W   36.4N  92.5W
BAMM    26.6N  85.4W   28.7N  90.3W   31.1N  94.2W   33.1N  96.2W
LBAR    26.8N  85.5W   30.1N  89.9W   34.2N  90.6W   37.8N  85.0W
SHIP        46KTS          53KTS          57KTS          57KTS
DSHP        46KTS          53KTS          32KTS          27KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  22.2N LONCUR =  74.9W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR =   8KT
LATM12 =  21.5N LONM12 =  73.8W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 =   8KT
LATM24 =  21.1N LONM24 =  71.4W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[SFLcane]

TVCN is north of TPC now so its probable the 5pm track may come north a bit.

[ronjon]

Extrapolated movement takes it into the FL peninsula so it must be jogging more NW now currently.