SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[srainhoutx]

More showers today. I'm nearing 6 inches since last Friday in the old rain bucket. Tropical waves have certainly pushed to #4 in the record books (IAH for the month of July) as far as rainfall is concerned. Now 98L and 97L are in the picture. The bugs are terrible!

[jasons2k]

You don't see this every day...

[southerngale]

Jason, you just had to make that post the other day, didn't you?

[vbhoutex]

Thanks Jason! We are currently having torrential downpours here in Spring Branch area. This has been happening for the last hour in an on again off again fashion. We really don't need any more rain for a while, especially if we have to deal with possible TS Bonnie this weekend.

[southerngale]

Geesh... our rain chances were rather low today. About 6:30 pm, got one DOOZY of a storm. Pouring down rain, sideways, wind whipping around like crazy, and a lot of thunder and lightning. It knocked out the electricity for several hours. I was left with limbs and stuff scattered around the yard.

[srainhoutx]

Not a drop of rain yesterday to mess up an afternoon/evening by the pool. It doesn't look so promising for the rest of the weekend and at least through Wednesday. The forecast does look fairly wet and even a stronger mention of heavy rainfall potential. July has certainly been awefully wet for the Houston Area. Just a touch over 2 inches (one good slow moving storm could about achieve that) of rain this week at IAH would put us into the # 1 spot for the wettest July on record.

HGX:

UPDATED RAINFALL STATS THROUGH YESTERDAY SHOW JULY`S IAH TOTAL AT 12.10
INCHES WHICH CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE 4TH WETTEST JULY ON RECORD. THE
WETTEST JULY IS 14.80 INCHES SET IN 1900. HOU`S JULY TOTAL STANDS AT
12.17 INCHES WHICH ALSO CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE 4TH WETTEST JULY ON RECORD.
HOU ONLY NEEDS AN ADDITIONAL 0.80 INCHES TO MAKE 2010 THE 2ND WETTEST
JULY ON RECORD. ANOTHER 5.08 INCHES IS NEEDED TO MOVE JULY 2010 INTO
1ST PLACE.

[Flyinman]

Well we received a Gully washer. We have small trees, large branches and other lawn objects scattered around. I did not have a working wind guage last night but would say we received gusts in excess of 40 mph. There was heavy rain for about 20 minutes ( almost 3/4 "), lightning everywhere but not much cloud to ground lightning. Driving around this morning, there is debris alll over the road and in parking lots. I appreciated the rain, but hope we do not receive anything like this for a while.

[TexasSam]

Just had a interesting little storm here. Lots of lightning & Thunder, good strong wind. Knocked the power out for about a minute. Now just mod. rain, and general Lightning & Thunder.

[vbhoutex]

Just had a interesting little storm here. Lots of lightning & Thunder, good strong wind. Knocked the power out for about a minute. Now just mod. rain, and general Lightning & Thunder.

It sure wasn't that way yesterday!! I was at HRP and it was downright brutal yesterday in Baytown! Driving home to West Houston what do we see? Heavy tstorms ahead of us with plenty of CG lightning. Not a drop at my house though, And yesterday while we were frying at the track it was storming in Beaumont 25 miles to our NE. Strange weather.

[srainhoutx]

Looking mighty wet for the next several days. I wonder if we will break the record for the wettest July set in 1900?

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
437 AM CDT MON JUL 26 2010

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-271200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
437 AM CDT MON JUL 26 2010

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DEEPENING TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...TOTALLY 1 TO
2 INCHES OR MORE...WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOCATIONS RECEIVING HEAVIER RAINFALL
COULD SEE SOME FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO AND THREE...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST AND WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...TOTALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OR MORE...WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LOCATIONS RECEIVING HEAVIER RAINFALL COULD SEE SOME FLOODING.

.DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL DRY MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
OUT AND WARM UP TEMPERATURES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HIGHS BY THE WEEKEND
COULD REACH THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MIGHT BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

[vbhoutex]

The latest from Jeff for our area:

Another week with the same ole story for the region….

Upper level low located over NC TX this morning with another upper low over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and copious amounts of tropical moisture across the western Gulf of Mexico. NC TX upper low is gradually sliding west while eastern Gulf system is moving WNW. Both of these systems will combine with the increasing moisture to provide very good rain chances today through late Wednesday.

Already have numerous showers/thunderstorms over the NE Gulf waters into our coastal counties this morning on the leading edge of the increasing moisture plume. PWS over the NW Gulf range from 2.2-2.5 inches and this deep tropical moisture will be moving inland during the day today with numerous showers/thunderstorms developing. Favorable upper air divergence over the area (especially over the Matagorda Bay region) combined with low trigger temperatures (mid 80’s) and weak wind fields (good seabreeze) all point toward widespread coverage. Inverted V sounding profile from over the weekend is now gone with the dry slots being replaced with saturated layers…this will reduce the damaging wind threat we had over the weekend with the pulse severe storms. Threat will now transitions toward excessive rainfall as atmosphere becomes nearly saturated and NW Gulf continues to load moisture into the region. Storm motions today should be fast enough to preclude any major flooding concerns, but motions may slow some on Tuesday and this could cause a few problems if the heavy rains concentrate in the urban areas.

Wet through Wednesday with periods of showers/thunderstorms as PWS remain at or above 2.0” as has been the case for most of July. Upper ridge will begin to build and Thursday from the east and rain chances lower quickly from east to west. By Friday, upper air ridge should have a good foothold on the region with temperatures warming into the upper 90’s (possibly low 100’s) under strong compressional heating. Sinking air aloft under the ridge will cap off chances for anything more than an isolated late day thunderstorm along the seabreeze. Surface flow looks to go SW and maybe even W during this period supporting a slight decrease in humidity, but allowing inland heat to advect toward the beachfront. Will likely need to temper highs a tad Friday and Saturday given wet grounds and standing water along with unusually green vegetation for this time of year. Depending on how much rain falls over the next few days, may be able to cut 100’s out of the forecast altogether for the weekend if soggy ground persist.

[southerngale]

Wash, Rinse, Repeat - right, guys?

I thought the LCH discussion was pretty interesting...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1010 AM CDT MON JUL 26 2010

.UPDATE...MORNING LCH SOUNDING SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER AT A
VERY MOIST 2.21 INCHES WITH NO CAPPING. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN INTO THE MID 80S AND CURRENT SURFACE BASED CAPES ACROSS
THE AREA RUNNING FROM 3000-4500 J/KG. ALREADY SEEING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG COASTAL SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. EXPECTING LIKELY POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO EASILY PAN
OUT AIDED BY A LOW LFC AROUND 2K FT THAT WILL ACT TO ENHANCE
OUTFLOW/COLD POOL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
POTENTIAL FLOODING WITH FORECAST STORM MOTION GENERALLY UNDER 10
MPH. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO UPDATE COMING.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 AM CDT MON JUL 26 2010/

AVIATION...
L&V WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
SHRA/TSRA WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...WITH VCTS BEGINNING ~14-15Z...AND TEMPO GROUP FOR
TSRA BEGINNING AT 17Z FOR BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. FOR AEX...TSRA WILL BEGIN A BIT LATER TOWARDS
18Z. VFR EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT MON JUL 26 2010/

SYNOPSIS...

A SHALLOW TROUGH...EXTENDING THROUGH SHREVEPORT TO LAREDO TEXAS THIS
MORNING...WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH TOMORROW.

FURTHER EAST...A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE...A WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...IS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA.

THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...REACHING SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA ON THURSDAY. THE
SHALLOW TROUGH WILL FILL-UP ACCORDINGLY.

DISCUSSION...

EASTERLY IMPULSES ARE SWINGING AROUND THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE
GEORGIA DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE...ASCENDING UPON REACHING THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHALLOW TROUGH. THIS PURPORTED RING-OF-FIRE WILL BE
IN PLACE TODAY AND TOMORROW...AUGMENTING THE CONVECTIVE LIFT WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC LIFT.

THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST STATES IS PRIMED
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE DAYTIME AIR COLUMN WILL BE VERY MOIST. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
CURRENTLY RUNNING AROUND 2.5 INCHES WHICH IS 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL
FOR LATE JULY.

THE DAYTIME AIR COLUMN WILL BE STATICALLY UNSTABLE. THE LIFTED
INDEXES WILL BE RUNNING AROUND MINUS 8 C DEGREES. THE SHOWALTER
INDEXES WILL BE RUNNING AROUND MINUS 2 C DEGREES. THE LATENT
INSTABILITY OR CAPE WILL BE RUNNING FROM 3500 TO 4000 J PER KG.

CONSEQUENTLY... HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THE
COMBINED CONVECTIVE-SYNOPTIC LIFT RELEASES THE MOIST INSTABILITY.
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
DOWNDRAFT WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...BUT SHOULD TAPER OFF BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT
SEASONAL FOR LATE JULY...WHILE THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE BENCHMARK NORMALS.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DECREASING...AS HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES LOUISIANA. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL
INTRUDE IN FROM GEORGIA AND ALABAMA.

[srainhoutx]

Noisy thunderstorm in NW Harris County at this time. HGX thinking tomorrow/Wednesday will be a bit wetter with higher PW's and lower convective temps.

[southerngale]

Wow... another intense storm. Lots of thunder & lightning and dropped 1.61" in about 30 minutes. Looks like another developing cell will be here shortly.

But I still have electricity this time!

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
314 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2010

.DISCUSSION...WE TOOK A LIGHTNING STRIKE AT OF NEAR THE OFFICE.
CLOSE ENOUGH TO MAKE ME JUMP. RADAR THEN WENT OFF LINE. ELECTRONICS
STAFF HAS INFORMED US THAT THE RADAR WILL DOWN AT LEAST INTO
TOMORROW.

[Flyinman]

Yeah the lightning was very dangerous today and quite unpredictable. I was outside about 5pm playing with the weather on my GPS and a bolt of lightning hit the golf course behind our house. The clouds at the time were very light with even some sun in a few areas. We had strong winds and heavy rain once again today. Received just over 1" for the day.

[southerngale]

LOL - saw that srain - I can relate to the jumping... got a few of those types of boomers today. Tons of thunder and lightning... and there's still a lot of lightning outside, but no rain currently. Storms are building and moving onshore though - it looks like many areas will see overnight storms.

[srainhoutx]

Well, another day and more rain ahead. HGX seems to be leaving the door open to a Flood Watch a bit later down the road. Appears at least another 48 hours of a heavy rainfall potential before the drying out begins...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
436 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

.DISCUSSION...
THE LARGE NEAR-STATIONARY UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW UP RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO AN DE-
STABILIZED ATMOSPHERE THROUGH TOMORROW. THUS...WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. DUE TO
THE SLOW-MOVING NORTHERN TREK OF CELLS WITHIN A INCREASINGLY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT/WEAK SOUTHERLY STEERING WIND FIELD AND NORTH-
SOUTH ORIENTATION LINE TRAINING HAS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE
PRIMARILY THREAT. FFG IS STILL SOMEWHAT HIGH...NEAR 3 INCH/HOUR
RATES TO PRODUCE FLOODING BUT AS DAY WEARS ON THESE NUMBERS WILL
LOWER. TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW`S FLOODING THREAT WILL BECOME MORE
OF AN ISSUE AS MORE BOUTS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FALL OVER
SATURATED GROUNDS. AS USUALLY IS THE CASE WITHIN THESE TROPICAL
AIR MASSES...MORNING FUNNEL CLOUDS OR WEAK WATERSPOUTS/NEAR-COASTAL
TORNADOES ARE A SECONDARY THREAT. OFFSHORE CONVECTION ENCOUNTERING
SPEED CONVERGENCE UPON THEIR INLAND ENTRY WILL INDUCE ENOUGH LL
WIND SHEAR TO PRODUCE ISOLATED FUNNELS.

OVERCAST AND RAIN WILL HAVE TUE-WED MX TEMPS COMING IN AN AVERAGE
5 DEGREES LOWER THAN NORMAL...MINIMUMS TO COME IN NEAR NORMAL. SOME
LOCALES EXPERIENCING STORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PASSAGES MAY DIP DOWN
TO AROUND 70 F.

AS EASTERN RIDGING ADVANCES IN OVER TEXAS ON THU-FRI...AND WEST
COAST TROUGH ENERGY RIDES UP AND OVER IT...UPPER LOW WILL DISSOLVE
OVER THE DESERT SW. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE ENSEMBLE TO BE
THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE EXTENDED WEATHER PATTERN. A SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER EASTERN AIR MASS ADVECTS IN UNDER 5H RIDGING GOING INTO
FRIDAY...AND SUBSIDENCE BEGINS TO WORK ON THE REGION. THUS...DRIER
AND MORE HOT WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR US OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL SWING BACK UP TO ABOVE NORMAL...OR THE MID TO
UPPER 90S FOR HIGHS...BEGINNING FRIDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE ONLY CHANCE FOR RAIN
COMING ALONG THE LOCAL BREEZE(S). WE GO FROM SOGGY TO SWELTERING AS
HEAT INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT...OR EXCEED...THE 105 F MARK.
THE ONLY SAVING GRACE OF ISSUING THE FIRST HEAT ADVISORIES OF THE
YEAR WILL BE THE POSITIONING OF THE HIGH WITHIN A RELATIVELY DRIER
AIR MASS...OR A MORE WEST (THAN SOUTH) WIND DIRECTION. AUGUST BEGINS
ON SUNDAY WITH NO HEAT ADVISORIES TO DATE...LETS HOPE WE DON`T SPEAK
IT INTO EXISTENCE! 31

[JenBayles]

The storm that dropped marble size hail on the Katy area Saturday evening brought some great mammatus clouds to Bear Creek. Lots of thunder going on again today! (Getting the dreaded red X on preview so including the the links to the pics.)

http://outdoors.webshots.com/photo/2965 ... 1437AQLxel



http://outdoors.webshots.com/photo/2808 ... 1437Iazzqj

[southerngale]

ouchie, it's gonna be HOT! Got a BBQ to go to late Saturday afternoon... too bad they don't have a pool.



My forecast:

Friday: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 97. Heat index values as high as 106. West wind around 5 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 101. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Sunday: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 101. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph.

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
433 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2010

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-301100-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
433 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2010

...OPPRESSIVE HEAT EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE EXPECTED
...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLIM...ALLOWING
FOR MAXIMUM HEATING POTENTIAL. HIGHS TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 90S. COUPLED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S...HEAT
INDEX READINGS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 102 TO 106 DURING THE TIME OF
MAXIMUM HEATING.

TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE SIMPLY OPPRESSIVE. WITH THE
STRENGTHENING HIGH OVERHEAD...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH 100
ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR...WITH LOWER 100S EXPECTED NORTH OF
US-190. COUPLED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S...HEAT INDEX
READINGS WILL RANGE 107 TO 111 DURING THE TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING.
NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO FALL BELOW 80 DEGREES EACH
NIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE
TO CREATE A SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE POSSIBLE. DRINK
PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM...STAY OUT OF
THE SUN...AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.

$$