ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - MODELS

[HouTXmetro]

SHift or no shift, the question is, is that Ridge on top weakening or building near landfall?

[rockyman]

Para--TX/LA border (shift east from 00z...which showed a hit between Galveston and Corpus)

thats not the border my friend more like SETX...ridge on top of it...

I did put "TX" first

[rockyman]

Looking at both GFS models, it appears that high strengthens for a while, then weakens right at landfall, so we'll possibly get a "stair-stepping motion" across the Gulf.

[Wx_Warrior]

EURO wasn't garbage....PLEASE

It was west when GFS, et al, had 97L going up the east coast.

If this veries, EURO slam dunk, yet AGAIN.

[Stormcenter]

Exactly.

EURO wasn't garbage....PLEASE

It was west when GFS, et al, had 97L going up the east coast.

If this veries, EURO slam dunk, yet AGAIN.

[barometerJane61]

EURO wasn't garbage....PLEASE

It was west when GFS, et al, had 97L going up the east coast.

If this veries, EURO slam dunk, yet AGAIN.

Looks like the EURO is the model to rely on this season

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

wasn't it the canadian that actually was calling for development early on, and a decent general path? the Euro wasn't even calling for development at all, and then barely, after all the other models had already done so. Then, it took it over Cuba, and continues to do so. Sure, it didn;t take it up the east coast of Florida like some did, but it has so far not been any more accurate than they were at this point in the game. it went far left, some went far east. the bamms and canadian seem to have had it better so far.
that said, the canadian probably over did the strengthening, like it always does, down the road on this one early on.

I'm generally in the pro-Euro camp, but I wouldn't say it was anywhere near a slam dunk calling this one. -at least not yet.

[Weatherfreak000]

wasn't it the canadian that actually was calling for development early on, and a decent general path? the Euro wasn't even calling for development at all, and then barely, after all the other models had already done so. Then, it took it over Cuba, and continues to do so. Sure, it didn;t take it up the east coast of Florida like some did, but it has so far not been any more accurate than they were at this point in the game. it went far left, some went far east. the bamms and canadian seem to have had it better so far.
that said, the canadian probably over did the strengthening, like it always does, down the road on this one early on.

I'm generally in the pro-Euro camp, but I wouldn't say it was anywhere a slam dunk calling this one. -at least not yet.

That's what i've been calling on, CMC over EURO. It has gotten nothing but contest. But like another member said earlier this EURO subject is doing nothing but hurting model discussions. Severely.

[sphelps8681]

When does the Euro come out next?

[Macrocane]

In about two hours

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I'm sure there isn't a meterologist out there that will tell you to just follow one model anyway. The reason we have a few of them, is that they all have their own strengths and weaknesses. I like the GFS models for their overall synoptics...especially where the highs and upper lows will be. Euro is often good for intensity and usually really good on tropical development and general motion too, though it has a west bias. The GFS tends to have a right bias. The BAMMS I like for weaker systems (shallow), but they can often be out to lunch. Canadian like to stir up ghost systems and usually way overdoes intensity, but it is great for sniffing out formation early. The best thing to do is use them all, knowing where their strengths and weaknesses are. That's what the analysis fun is all about.

[tolakram]

Just remember that in the short term the Canadian was by far the most accurate. So now that a storm has developed I look at the Canadian track out to 72 hours. The 0Z had it just brushing south Florida, will be interesting to see what the 12Z will show.

Beyond 72 hours the Canadian is comic relief. In my opinion, of course.

[caneman]

Please stop with the Euro crap. It's old and tired. How about a little help here mods. Last I checked Euro has it going over Cuba and dying. The NHC uses all models for a reason. Nuff said.........

[MWatkins]

In an non-euro related note...NOGAPS appears to have been initialized too far south just about on the north coast of Cuba, and it tracks inland in 12 hours.

From there, it brings (sigh) an open wave through the keys, but putting 30 knot winds as far north as Palm Beach county.

In 72 hours, it's close to the central/western sections of Louisiana (in that model) barely hanging on as a closed low.

MW

[cycloneye]

Canadian to SE Texas. Dual landfalls.

12z CMC

[Bocadude85]

In an non-euro related note...NOGAPS appears to have been initialized too far south just about on the north coast of Cuba, and it tracks inland in 12 hours.

From there, it brings (sigh) an open wave through the keys, but putting 30 knot winds as far north as Palm Beach county.

In 72 hours, it's close to the central/western sections of Louisiana (in that model) barely hanging on as a closed low.

MW

The GFS looks as if it shifted to the north a little taking this into the extreme southern tip or Florida

[lebron23]

12Z CMC into galveston with a double punch storm

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[tolakram]

It's crazy how stable the Canadian can be to 72 hours, and then the model completely falls apart. As a software engineer myself I have to wonder if there's a bug in the routine somewhere.

[srainhoutx]

12Z CMC into galveston with a double punch storm
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

That double punch is also on the Para GFS, but a little SW of the Canadian. That discussion is for another topic though.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Please stop with the Euro crap. It's old and tired. How about a little help here mods. Last I checked Euro has it going over Cuba and dying. The NHC uses all models for a reason. Nuff said.........

WRONG!!!!!!!