ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - MODELS

[ROCK]

GFS bad initializing proves to me these 2 runs are for entertainment purposes only........NAM was interesting.....

[ROCK]

Ops misses FL all together clips Cuba....hmm wonder where we have seen that before...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042l.gif

[rockyman]

I just ran the IR loop again, zoomed into the northeast coast of Cuba, and there does appear to be a faint low level swirl down there, well removed from the convection. It appears to be moving SW, though, so it could be an eddy swirling around the broader center to the northeast.

[rockyman]

Ops misses FL all together clips Cuba....hmm wonder where we have seen that before...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042l.gif

Those Europeans are so smart!

[rockyman]

The Para takes it all the way south of Cuba in 30 hours.

The Operational takes it WSW along the northern Cuban coastline.

[ROCK]

Ops at 48hr.....look how it drives west at a good clip after Cuba... exactly like the EURO run for the past 2 days...see the high building on top of it....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048l.gif

[AtlanticWind]

The Para takes it all the way south of Cuba in 30 hours.

hard to see how this gets south of cuba

[ROCK]

yes it has a hint of south of west in this run but its eerily similar to the EURO runs....and know one jumped on board the EURO train....

[ROCK]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_066l.gif


pulling NW just a weak low...

[ROCK]

get prepared for a another west shift from all the models....well except the mighty EURO...its already west...

[tronbunny]

yes it has a hint of south of west in this run but its eerily similar to the EURO runs....and know one jumped on board the EURO train....

But hasn't the EURO basically run this as a non-event.
Where's the fun in that?

[ROCK]

The Para takes it all the way south of Cuba in 30 hours.

hard to see how this gets south of cuba

look at the high building on top of it....not that hard to believe with that set up....High slides east though and opens the door for the NW run..

[thetruesms]

Ops misses FL all together clips Cuba....hmm wonder where we have seen that before...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042l.gif

It's only for entertainment purposes until it spits out the track you want it to, amirite?

[ROCK]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072l.gif

72hr opens it up to a TW....

[ROCK]

Ops misses FL all together clips Cuba....hmm wonder where we have seen that before...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042l.gif

It's only for entertainment purposes until it spits out the track you want it to, amirite?

I find it entertaining that no one put weight to the EURO guidance and relys on the GFS and its jacked up para and ops runs....Runs in which other models run off on which jacks up their runs and so and so on....I think they initlized the 97L wrong on both of these so I can see some deviation in trackwise. However one cannot deny this mirrors the EURO run for the past 2 days....

[ROCK]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_090l.gif


90hr approaching SWLA Upper /TX coast as nothing more than a TW with some rain......Ivan if your out there me and WX Warrior have a nice big EURO seat for you to sit in....

[thetruesms]

I find it entertaining that no one put weight to the EURO guidance and relys on the GFS and its jacked up para and ops runs....Runs in which other models run off on which jacks up their runs and so and so on....I think they initlized the 97L wrong on both of these so I can see some deviation in trackwise. However one cannot deny this mirrors the EURO run for the past 2 days....

Who's "no one"? The Euro has been a strong component of every NWS forecast office in the southeast all week. If you're talking about more of the online community, ECMWF really only has themselves to blame by restricting the model's distribution so strongly. People can't take their model into account if they don't get to see quality products derived from it

As for this run, it does indeed mirror the Euro, but if it's initialized poorly, then its results are just as useless. At best, it will be right for the wrong reasons. At worst, it will be wrong for the wrong reasons. Who wants either?

But the important thing to remember is that I was just poking a little fun. It just amused me a little to see such a dichotomy in consecutive posts Dry humor does not carry well online, which sucks because my humor is about as dry as a martini with no vermouth

[ROCK]

I find it entertaining that no one put weight to the EURO guidance and relys on the GFS and its jacked up para and ops runs....Runs in which other models run off on which jacks up their runs and so and so on....I think they initlized the 97L wrong on both of these so I can see some deviation in trackwise. However one cannot deny this mirrors the EURO run for the past 2 days....

Who's "no one"? The Euro has been a strong component of every NWS forecast office in the southeast all week. If you're talking about more of the online community, ECMWF really only has themselves to blame by restricting the model's distribution so strongly. People can't take their model into account if they don't get to see quality products derived from it

As for this run, it does indeed mirror the Euro, but if it's initialized poorly, then its results are just as useless. At best, it will be right for the wrong reasons. At worst, it will be wrong for the wrong reasons. Who wants either?

But the important thing to remember is that I was just poking a little fun. It just amused me a little to see such a dichotomy in consecutive posts Dry humor does not carry well online, which sucks because my humor is about as dry as a martini with no vermouth

no worries...I know you were poking fun.... but I can tell you other METS on here have not even mentioned the EURO and it was only today the local AFD did as did Masters.....just find it curious...

[ROCK]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif

102hr upper TX coast with all the rain in SWLA....a sheared mess....nice..

[ROCK]

12z CMC....uh what is following 97L...a twin...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation