Invest 91L - Slowly consolidating -

[Stormsfury]

Ok ... this morning, so far, the LLS due to the South of the system ... is still there ...

However, some subtle changes have occurred in the last 12-18 hours .. so let's lay out the information on the table.

1) The problem the LLS down to the south is that TUTT low south of the system ... and now, notice it's moving west...
2) Look at what we're looking at ... looks like a rex-block - Upper high/upper low trapped beneath it and look at how BOTH are moving ... westward, in tandem with our invest ...

http://orbit-net.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/a ... loope.html

The ETA's depiction of the surface trough signature progged yesteday is verifying quite well (the trough to the north is moving faster than the LLC)
I recommend high speed connection for viewing these visible satellite loops --- notice yesterday's loop how the surface trough is orientated SW/NE ---- notice today's depiction --- more north to south ---

Yesterday afternoon's Loop
This morning's loop

Also notice the expanse of the convection is not stretched out as far as yesterday (with the exception of the convection now well separated from the northeast) ... Notice the convection is slowly consolidating to a common point. ... also on this morning's loop, notice the low-level swirl coming into view around 22ºN, 64ºW, but that's not important ....

Unlike yesterday, where the winds in the deep convection were SSE to SE on the southwest, south, and southeast side of the convection, and E and ENE on the western and northern end of the convection. NOW, compare today's convection ... still southeast winds on the southeastern side of the convection (with south winds through the deep convection according to the buoy report - or a ship report) --- however, now we're seeing some ENE winds south of 26ºN and some NE winds south of 25ºN on the western side of the convection .... in fact, winds along the Florida coast have come around to the NE from SE yesterday ...

http://orbit-net.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/a ... loope.html

Yesterday's LLS swirl is still there, but notice the middle level (a suspected center) --- down around 25.5ºN ---- getting closer to the LLS ----

What I think is happening here is this ...

A broad scale low pressure center is going to develop shortly. The LLS and MLC are slowly coming together and consolidating ... I do not look for any immediate development as it heads towards Florida, possibly at worst, a tropical depression ... Once it gets into the GOM, all bets are off because as the LLS and MLC are coming together (my rough estimate of this occurring will be 24ºN-26ºN latitude line)... IMO, the chances of development in the GOM are looking quite good ... I'll place it at 60% right now...

[Portastorm]

wow! thanks for a very thorough and interesting discussion.

Us GOMers will watch with interest ....

[cycloneye]

Stormsfury that has been the best complete anaylisis of all the factors I haved seen so far of this system .

[wxman57]

Ok, here's an image I just snapped of the system with ship/land plots. Definitely no LLC, but a nice MLC. Note the 1019mb pressure in the northern Bahamas.

[Lindaloo]

i agree with luis. thanks stormsfury.

[southerngale]

And the track still looks westward in the GOM with nothing to steer it northward at some point, right?

[cycloneye]

Yes SG still track westward into GOM and MEX/South Texas as bullseye so far.

[southerngale]

Ok, thanks cyc

[mf_dolphin]

Looks like the ULL SW of the system may be tracking a little to the WSW. So many players to watch all at once

[Guest]

How will the ULL to the south affect the LLS if ULL is moving WSW?

[Stormsfury]

How will the ULL to the south affect the LLS if ULL is moving WSW?

The mean flow between the building ULH and ULL to its south is affecting the actual LLS with easterly shear.. probably at least for another 24 hours ... as the ULL begins to pull away (towards the west/southwest - progged by the ETA/GFS couplet, environmental conditions are progged to become more favorable once the invest crosses the Florida Straits and into the GOM.

SF

[Stormsfury]

Anybody noticing the consolidation of the convection right around 25ºN? ...

SF