ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - MODELS

[redfish1]

i think we are going to start seeing the models shift to the west from this point on....just my opinion

[lebron23]

HWRF GFDL shift west.

[ROCK]

not to mention this is going to clip Cuba and the Keys....look at the motion due west...no one seems to notice....

[ROCK]

HWRF GFDL shift west.

they will until the EURO shifts right if it ever does....

[rockyman]

18z CMC Regional (shifts a little north):

[rockyman]

18z HWRF landfalls on MS Coast (VERY weak):

[thetruesms]

HWRF GFDL shift west.

It's about time

[rockyman]

18z GFDL--Miami then LA/MS area:

[SFLcane]

another view at the 18z model plots...

[KWT]

Once again models weaken this after landfall and keep it weak and in fact maybe even weakening further...looks like the models must be seeing a new burst of shear in the Gulf...

[floridasun78]

how strong as ts before fl do model have with new runs?

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Model Suite

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0038 UTC THU JUL 22 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20100722 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100722  0000   100722  1200   100723  0000   100723  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    21.4N  72.8W   21.9N  75.7W   22.5N  77.9W   23.3N  80.3W
BAMD    21.4N  72.8W   22.3N  74.8W   23.4N  77.3W   24.7N  80.3W
BAMM    21.4N  72.8W   21.9N  75.1W   22.8N  77.3W   23.9N  79.8W
LBAR    21.4N  72.8W   22.1N  75.3W   23.1N  77.8W   24.2N  80.6W
SHIP        30KTS          31KTS          35KTS          39KTS
DSHP        30KTS          31KTS          35KTS          39KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100724  0000   100725  0000   100726  0000   100727  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    24.4N  82.3W   26.5N  86.4W   28.3N  90.4W   30.5N  93.8W
BAMD    26.1N  83.6W   29.3N  89.8W   32.4N  93.5W   35.4N  95.5W
BAMM    25.1N  82.3W   27.5N  87.3W   29.6N  91.4W   32.3N  94.5W
LBAR    25.5N  83.4W   28.9N  88.2W   32.7N  90.2W   36.0N  87.4W
SHIP        42KTS          47KTS          52KTS          55KTS
DSHP        42KTS          47KTS          42KTS          29KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  21.4N LONCUR =  72.8W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =  12KT
LATM12 =  20.7N LONM12 =  70.1W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 =  12KT
LATM24 =  19.8N LONM24 =  68.2W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[redfish1]

i think this is going to be a texas or louisiana storm

[ericinmia]

i think this is going to be a texas or louisiana storm

Reasoning?

[redfish1]

i think this is going to be a texas or louisiana storm

Reasoning?

it has not gained much strength and the models are starting to see that and plus it is still moving on a westerly path

[ROCK]

I wouldnt go all the way to Texas with it but the EURO has been hinting about it all week.....so it cant be discounted.....the model are finally seeing what the EURO is seeing.... a sheared mess with an ULL right in front of it across the GOM....all this talk about its looking better...ULL is weakening, its moving away...yada yada...nice to make assumptions based on sat views but at some point you have got to put some guidance in with it....anyway JMO....

[ROCK]

12z EURO from a different perspective. not great resolution but this was the only way you could see the progression across the GOM...

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 112!!step/

[redfish1]

12z EURO from a different perspective. not great resolution but this was the only way you could see the progression across the GOM...

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 112!!step/

i could not pull it up...whats it showing???

[ROCK]

12z EURO from a different perspective. not great resolution but this was the only way you could see the progression across the GOM...

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 112!!step/

i could not pull it up...whats it showing???

just showing what it has been showing for days now....same path...weak...try this link..play with it until you get north america

http://www.ecmwf.int/

[brunota2003]

>>> 18z HWRF landfalls on MS Coast (VERY weak) <<<

That actually looks like it is either a nontropical low pressure area, or at best, a subtropical depression making landfall. Strongest winds shifted wayyy to the NE of the circulation center in the image, with nothing over/to the NW/W/SW/S of the center.