ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[miamijaaz]

Greetings from Beaches in the Turks and Caicos!

[Florida1118]

Looks like a great day for a vacation. I still think a 45mph Bonnie is possible. shes getting together...Again.

[tailgater]

Looks like T-storms very near the center, I would think it gets a little higher percentage this time around.

[chzzdekr81]

:uarrow: Looks like a great day for a vacation. I still think a 45mph Bonnie is possible. shes getting together...Again.

Could be a Colin

[rockyman]

Work on oil leak stopped by developing storm; cap may have to be opened
http://mobile.al.com/advmobile/db_96557 ... ue#display

[ConvergenceZone]

So far the waves this year have been very frustrating. Hopefully will have some normal ones where we will actually know what they are or aren't going to do...

Very frustrating season so far.

[AFWeather]

Looks like T-storms very near the center, I would think it gets a little higher percentage this time around.

Convection is firing up again, but I think NHC sticks with 50% for the 8PM TWO. Remember, politics play a role in what the NHC does and they don't want to keep jumping between different categories every update (low/medium/high) unless they have to.

[KWT]

Remember CZ its only July, plus this wave is really having fun interacting with the ULL.

Watch the ULL in the next 6-12hrs, if it can get sdpace between itself and 97L shear will decrease slowly in that period and given the current presentation we may not need 'that' low shear levels to get the job done, esp with some turning to the west of the convection.

[TexasF6]

Master Yoda: There is another, Sky--walker....invest 98L!!! just a suprise Aside, I still think once shear lessons over this (97L) one, it will get more organized, perhaps slowly as wxman57 sees things unfolding in time...

[StormClouds63]

So far the waves this year have been very frustrating. Hopefully will have some normal ones where we will actually know what they are or aren't going to do...

Very frustrating season so far.

Yes, very frustrating. Bonnie, where are you? Might have to wait until August until she finally decides to show up.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The waves are taking a long time to get their act together but im not complaining at all. Giving us a better chance for a weak min hurricane

[thetruesms]

I was kind of wrestling with what I was seeing earlier this afternoon, but the last several vis frames have me pretty well convinced that we don't yet have an LLC. However, it has certainly made quite a bit of progress since this morning. Also, in addition to the ULL now starting to move westward somewhat faster than 97L, there's definitely been a moistening of the area ahead of 97 to go along with it. It's starting to look like a path is open for some development. I don't feel it's going to be quick, and I don't expect it to be smooth, but it's at least a more conducive looking situation than earlier.

[artist]

I was kind of wrestling with what I was seeing earlier this afternoon, but the last several vis frames have me pretty well convinced that we don't yet have an LLC. However, it has certainly made quite a bit of progress since this morning. Also, in addition to the ULL now starting to move westward somewhat faster than 97L, there's definitely been a moistening of the area ahead of 97 to go along with it. It's starting to look like a path is open for some development. I don't feel it's going to be quick, and I don't expect it to be smooth, but it's at least a more conducive looking situation than earlier.

I keep looking a little further east of where the supposed llc was this morning and really think I might see something there. Am I completely out of my mind?

[Aric Dunn]

run 20 images and speed it up... you will see what is likely at tight eddy but has a well defined structure... its very close to being at TD... http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html


you will see the eddy shoot out from under the convection the image below just shows where too look.

[TexasF6]

can someone please post some reliable satelite movie links? NHC's are old or not working for me....very strange...thanks!

[KWT]

I'm not sure you can tell Aric, the only signs of it is when the sun starts to go down so it could jsut as easily be an optical illusion.

That being said its certainly possible as it would fit the general area any LLC is likely to form and fits the location of that eddy we had earlier.

[thetruesms]

run 20 images and speed it up... you will see what is likely at tight eddy but has a well defined structure... its very close to being at TD... http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html


you will see the eddy shoot out from under the convection the image below just shows where too look.
[img]http://img811.imageshack.us/img811/5057/goes22252010202hxzska.jpg[img]

I see what I think it is you're getting at, but I can see below that feature clouds that are more indicative of being along a wave axis.

Structurally better than last night, that's for sure. Now if it had some of that nice looking convection it had yesterday. The last few frames do look like the tops aren't getting blown off like they have been all day, though. At least, for now - that convection is pretty new. Too bad the sun is going down on it.

[Blown Away]

Convection is really starting to converge on the "LLC". Better structure than 18z so they have to go Code Red 00z?? IMO, IF the rate of organization continues we should have a TD by tomorrow morning!

[Aquawind]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
ABNT20 KNHC 212331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE
EAST OF THE TROUGH. DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET INDICATE THAT
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH THEY COULD BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE IN A DAY OR
TWO. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD OVER THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF CUBA AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW BEFORE IT
REACHES THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

[shortwave]

run 20 images and speed it up... you will see what is likely at tight eddy but has a well defined structure... its very close to being at TD... http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html


you will see the eddy shoot out from under the convection the image below just shows where too look.
[img]http://img811.imageshack.us/img811/5057/goes22252010202hxzska.jpg[img]

I see what I think it is you're getting at, but I can see below that feature clouds that are more indicative of being along a wave axis.

Structurally better than last night, that's for sure. Now if it had some of that nice looking convection it had yesterday. The last few frames do look like the tops aren't getting blown off like they have been all day, though. At least, for now - that convection is pretty new. Too bad the sun is going down on it.

for us non-pros...what in the cloud structure show more of a wave axis rather than something else?