ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - MODELS

[Weatherfreak000]

The models shift more west every run. I think the final landfall is going to be farther west than what most of us think.

The model consensus has actually shifted more East and North. Given the assumption this becomes Bonnie.

[StormClouds63]

Ivan:

You've got guts ... but never doubt the EURO! The initiation isn't so bad, though.

[Ivanhater]

Ivan:

You've got guts ... never doubt the EURO! Study for that test, too.

I never blindly follow one model, that's dangerous. But studying non the less

[americanre1]

The models shift more west every run. I think the final landfall is going to be farther west than what most of us think.

Agree. I am looking between Port O'Connor,TX and Gulfport, MS for a landfall IMO.

Now that is a very wide basis, but I actually agree with you. It all depends on the strength and speed of this system, the faster and stronger system will be Gulfport area, a slower and weaker system (slower to strengthen) system will be anywheres from Port O'Connor to Vermillion Bay

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[KWT]

Models somewhat shifting northwards with regards to any 2nd landfall. I think with the upper low to the north helping to tug the system via relocations towards the center a more northerly solution is certainly possible, though the motion should stay WNW.

The GFDL/HWRF look too far north IMO.

[robbielyn]

Models somewhat shifting northwards with regards to any 2nd landfall. I think with the upper low to the north helping to tug the system via relocations towards the center a more northerly solution is certainly possible, though the motion should stay WNW.

The GFDL/HWRF look too far north IMO.

Which would put it roughly where at landfall 1st and second

[ROCK]

Models somewhat shifting northwards with regards to any 2nd landfall. I think with the upper low to the north helping to tug the system via relocations towards the center a more northerly solution is certainly possible, though the motion should stay WNW.

The GFDL/HWRF look too far north IMO.

I would say the HWRF and GFDL have not been that good at all this year...Maybe because of the Ops and Para GFS and its struggles....I dont know but I hardly take them into consideration....more weight to the EURO,CMC, then UKMET...GFS and its cousins are last in line....JMO...

[Ivanhater]

Initialization looks to far South(south of Cuba) on this model but interesting to see the upper air evolution of the ridge

[KWT]

I would say the HWRF and GFDL have not been that good at all this year...Maybe because of the Ops and Para GFS and its struggles....I dont know but I hardly take them into consideration....more weight to the EURO,CMC, then UKMET...GFS and its cousins are last in line....JMO...

The GFS is a good model but it depends on the situation. Its a bit dodgy in sdituations where an upper high is eroding away, it tends to be a little too progressive with such features.

[kjg123]

Does anyone see this storm being similar to Hurricane Erin? Erin formed near the same area and had an UL low near it. Erin struck the Pensacola area with 90 MPH winds??

[Wx_Warrior]

I must not see what a good percentage of some are. IF this develops, just don't see it being a major player.

[ROCK]

anyone notice the latest GFS ensembles.....very telling IMO...

[Wx_Warrior]

post it rock, on my blackberry now

[Ivanhater]

Just took a look...ridge looks to break down the same as the ops. If Bonnie is in the Gulf looks like SE LA or MS coast

[bbadon]

Question, Will a developing system in the BOC change any thing in regard to 97L?

[ROCK]

Question, Will a developing system in the BOC change any thing in regard to 97L?

no that stuff will be inland in 48hrs or less...westward into MX....

[HouTXmetro]

anyone notice the latest GFS ensembles.....very telling IMO...

??????

[Stormcenter]

I agree 100%.

I must not see what a good percentage of some are. IF this develops, just don't see it being a major player.

[chzzdekr81]

Check out NOGAPS spaghetti model.
Update: Oops, I didn't notice it from last run. It was from 2PM.

[antonlsu]

Check out NOGAPS spaghetti model.

post it