ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[gatorcane]

it does seem that the ULL is heading west at a faster speed than 97L is moving. So there is likely going to be a window where conditions improve for development prior to reaching Florida.

[tolakram]

Appears convection trying to wrap around "center"



MADIS station link: http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... ?ID=MD0758

[Weatherfreak000]

Convection has gotten better organized, as well as structure.


The next 6 hour time frame until the next TWO may be crucial.

[wxman57]

Did someone say Katrina? Here's a shot I saved from Tuesday, August 23rd, 2005. That was the day it became TD 12. It had been sheared really badly just before Tuesday, but you can see the upper winds becoming anticyclonic on the image below:

[Florida1118]

Its got until mid Fri. When are the conditions going to be the best?

[AdamFirst]

Its got until mid Fri. When are the conditions going to be the best?

Tomorrow is the big day, do or die for 97L. It's slowly coming together right now.

[AdamFirst]

Did someone say Katrina? Here's a shot I saved from Tuesday, August 23rd, 2005. That was the day it became TD 12. It had been sheared really badly just before Tuesday, but you can see the upper winds becoming anticyclonic on the image below:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/katrina1.gif

I can see the similarities in development. Is the wind shear cooperating for 97L? I understand yesterday it was under a pocket of low shear but I don't know things are right now.

[jlauderdal]

Convection has gotten better organized, as well as structure.


The next 6 hour time frame until the next TWO may be crucial.

i say 70% at next update, that is assuming avila isnt working, if he is than 60 at the most

[Bocadude85]

Its all going to depend on the ULL and how quickly it moves westward. Though I am not sure it leaves 97L much time to become much more then a TD before it arrives in Fl

[Vortex]

Hats off the WXman57, This morning he identified where he thought we should watch for llc formation and low and behold latest vis indicates just that. The LLC is exactly where he thought it might be. While it's in its formative stages in certianly looks like from this point on and especially thursday we could see steady intensification. Nice call WXman57

[tolakram]

Water vapor loop. Looks to me moving in tandem.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30

[gatorcane]

Can somebody post an SST graphic for the Bahamas area that it is moving into? Thanks

[jlauderdal]

Hats off the WXman57, This morning he identified where he thought we should watch for llc formation and low and behold latest vis indicates just that. The LLC is exactly where he thought it might be. While it's in its formative stages in certianly looks like from this point on and especially thursday we could see steady intensification. Nice call WXman57

he nails it once a season , good work by 57 now he just needs that hurricane warning to go up on the SE coast tomorrow morning to verify last nights write up

[AdamFirst]

Can somebody post an SST graphic for the Bahamas area that it is moving into? Thanks

[gatorcane]

thanks, so it is over some very warm SSTs at the moment.

[Nimbus]

it does seem that the ULL is heading west at a faster speed than 97L is moving. So there is likely going to be a window where conditions improve for development prior to reaching Florida.

We don't know what the surface pressure gradient is near the center axis of the wave. Typically if a system like this undergoes shear long enough the pressure gradient flattens out so it can't spin back up with a CDO. I agree that unfortunately our friend the ULL will not be able to match pace with 97L all the way to the gulf coast. As you stated the convection is already on the increase and the ULL has jogged west in the last few frames.

[Aric Dunn]

thanks, so it is over some very warm SSTs at the moment.

[wxman57]

he nails it once a season , good work by 57 now he just needs that hurricane warning to go up on the SE coast tomorrow morning to verify last nights write up

I'm beginning to think that's unlikely. I think someone here may well have his math test on Friday. Better study.

[Ivanhater]

he nails it once a season , good work by 57 now he just needs that hurricane warning to go up on the SE coast tomorrow morning to verify last nights write up

I'm beginning to think that's unlikely. I think someone here may well have his math test on Friday. Better study.

What about that 2nd "landfall" if any. I have a test coming up as well

Im feeling better there will not be any significant weather for my area.

[jhpigott]

he nails it once a season , good work by 57 now he just needs that hurricane warning to go up on the SE coast tomorrow morning to verify last nights write up

I'm beginning to think that's unlikely. I think someone here may well have his math test on Friday. Better study.

Yea, looking like Hurricane warning for SE Florida are unlikely. What about the odds of Tropical Storm warnings?