Let's take a deep breath and relax

[cycloneye]

http://www.storm2k.org/Weather-Central/ ... lantic.htm

The 5:30 AM tropical weather outlook says it all.Nothing is going to happen at this time but as i said last night when it gets into the GOM things MAY change and the system may develop but that is no guarantee too.Right now our friend ticka has a deadline of labor day for the atlantic lull to end and that still stands this morning.Until nothing forms into a TD and a storm she will be in the drivers seat.Our other friend Stormsfury kept insisting from late afternoon that the LLC was the dominant feature and guess whatr it is still that way this morning so his position from yesterday afernoon stands firmely this morning and also until the system organizes better with the MLC coalated with the LLC nothing will happen.By the way that debate yesterday and last night between Stormsfury's position and others that were going with the MLC position was really educational and very fruitful and those kinds of discussions is what we promote in storm2k.

Let's see what happens today with the system but I dont expect development until organization takes place completly however for sure rain will go to south florida where they dont need it.Let's relax and take a deep breath because the peak of the season is comming and eventually the atlantic will be active in the comming weeks as the global models show CV systems in the next 2 weeks so and let's see if ticka is right about the lull until labor day. Oh my I did this post very long so I will stop here.

[wxman57]

My morning thoughts as I e-mailed them to our staff:

As I look at the satellite imagery this morning, I can see that the disturbance appears less organized than yesterday in that the upper-level high over the northeastern mid level circulation (MLC) is not as well-established. Can't tell about the surface with IR satellite, though. It would appear that the MLC is closer to 25N/74.5W this morning. If that's the case, then it moved or more likely repositioned WSW overnight as opposed to the WNW-NW motion yesterday.

The models are still initializing the disturbance near the weak eddy in the Bahamas rather than the MLC, so they may be too quick with movement across the Gulf (by 4-6 hrs). It seems unlikely that this will become a TD before it moves into the Gulf Thursday afternoon/evening. Even after it moves into a Gulf development is by no means certain, particularly if that weak LLC dissipates.

Bottom line is I still think there is a good chance that this system will become a TD or TS in the Gulf of Mexico by Friday afternoon/evening, but intensity is highly uncertain due to persistent shear out there. I AM pretty confident in the track - straight west. Winds at all levels are from the east or even northeast (with time). This system should track right across the deepwater leases from Friday mid day through Saturday. What are the chances of TS development? With that weak LLC dissipating and the MLC not as strong today, I'd say they have dropped to the 50%-60% range from 80%. Any disturbance with a well-defined LLC has a much better chance of development than one with a MLC that COULD develop a LLC.

[Tip]

For August 13 the tropical Atlantic is about as calm as I've ever seen. The global models have a few disturbances progged, but nothing too impressive. Nothing on the African infrared indicates major development. OF course with this said, the Atlantic Basin will probably go nuts over the weekend lol.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... Asal-2.jpg

[cycloneye]

Yes Tip is time to begin looking east.

[cycloneye]

And I forgot to say tip that global models have systems of CV type in comming weeks so again let's look east.

[rainstorm]

i was saying a few nites ago the dist would stretch out once in got close to fla. there is a huge ull south of it, which is not good. with the flow as it is, i dont see this as a threat to the us, at all. it is sorta sad that it is mid august and this is the best there is in the atlantic

[chadtm80]

Yep Very upsetting.. lol

Dont need to waste our time looking E for a lil while either

[JCT777]

Chad - LOL at your sig!!!

I agree that the tropical Atlantic is extremely quite for mid-August. Almost TOO quiet. Makes me wonder if things will suddenly explode with activity next week. :o

[vbhoutex]

Quietest I've seen the ATL basin in a long time for this time of year. But, like Luis says we are approaching peak time and things should change in a week(or tickas two).

[Colin]

Boring, Boring, and MORE Boring...