ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - MODELS

[Extremeweatherguy]

12z HWRF:

[rockyman]

HWRF second landfall:

[Stormcenter]

It will be there.

Looking at the BAMs seems to indicate practically no shear in the eastern gulf, which is bad...

[Ivanhater]

GFDL

[poof121]

It will be there.

Looking at the BAMs seems to indicate practically no shear in the eastern gulf, which is bad...

The BAMs are just persistence models, right? Then, if so, if that upper low is moving west, shear is most definitely going to be there.

[Ivanhater]

12Z Dynamical certainly did shift east

[poof121]

GFDL

If you look closely at that GFDL graphic, it looks as though it is initializing it at around 40 knots. Would definitely explain why it is a northerly outlier.

[Ivanhater]

If this new low is taking over, its north of the model initialization

[Blown Away]

Mike, is your circle the 12z point or your estimated position?

[KWT]

Given the synoptic and the close nature of the ULL, track may actually end up being closer to the northerly models. We shall see...wonder what ECM shows on its 12z run if anything.

[Bocadude85]

Given the synoptic and the close nature of the ULL, track may actually end up being closer to the northerly models. We shall see...wonder what ECM shows on its 12z run if anything.

While I dont think it will end up as far as Melbourne I do think it could end up anywhere from Broward to Martin County.

[ROCK]

Ivan, I see that you left out the CMC and EURO in your DYnamic model plot......

TVCN and its brothers are just splitting the difference on the HWRF and GFDL runs which are crappola...so garbage in garbage out......Some of those are GFS ensembles also.

look outside the box, bro...see the light....

[ROCK]

Given the synoptic and the close nature of the ULL, track may actually end up being closer to the northerly models. We shall see...wonder what ECM shows on its 12z run if anything.

I remember AFM talking about the slingshot effects of ULL that are in close proximity of a developing TC....I dont recall the exact discussion though....

[thetruesms]

Ivan, I see that you left out the CMC and EURO in your DYnamic model plot......

TVCN and its brothers are just splitting the difference on the HWRF and GFDL runs which are crappola...so garbage in garbage out......Some of those are GFS ensembles also.

look outside the box, bro...see the light....

If the TVCN is just an average of the HWRF and GFDL, what is it doing lying outside of their envelope?

[Ivanhater]

Ivan, I see that you left out the CMC and EURO in your DYnamic model plot......

TVCN and its brothers are just splitting the difference on the HWRF and GFDL runs which are crappola...so garbage in garbage out......Some of those are GFS ensembles also.

look outside the box, bro...see the light....

Lol Rock true enough. But look at the Canadian for instance, it breaks down the ridge to almost non existence, but the surface reflection is VERY weak(1009mb) and just slides with the low level flow. You can even see a stronger system to its south moving to the NNW because of the lack of ridge.

If it stays very weak the odds it slides with the low level flow ala Euro and Canadian...interesting to see it play out

[ROCK]

Ivan, I see that you left out the CMC and EURO in your DYnamic model plot......

TVCN and its brothers are just splitting the difference on the HWRF and GFDL runs which are crappola...so garbage in garbage out......Some of those are GFS ensembles also.

look outside the box, bro...see the light....

If the TVCN is just an average of the HWRF and GFDL, what is it doing lying outside of their envelope?

So its not the average between the 2 models? I do not see where a specific TVCN model is ran at any time frame.....do you have a link where I can see the TVCN being ran? that would be helpful...

[thetruesms]

So its not the average between the 2 models? I do not see where a specific TVCN model is ran at any time frame.....do you have a link where I can see the TVCN being ran? that would be helpful...

You are right in that it is a multimodel average, and you might even be correct in that at one point or another, it was a simple average of the GFDL and HWRF. However, it goes deeper than that. It's a kind of "smart" ensemble, where NHC can create their own ensemble mean. They can pick from GFDL, HWRF, UKMET, NOGAPS, GFSI, GFDN (GFDL using NOGAPS initialization), and the Euro, and weight each member as they choose.

[ROCK]

So its not the average between the 2 models? I do not see where a specific TVCN model is ran at any time frame.....do you have a link where I can see the TVCN being ran? that would be helpful...

You are right in that it is a multimodel average, and you might even be correct in that at one point or another, it was a simple average of the GFDL and HWRF. However, it goes deeper than that. It's a kind of "smart" ensemble, where NHC can create their own ensemble mean. They can pick from GFDL, HWRF, UKMET, NOGAPS, GFSI, GFDN (GFDL using NOGAPS initialization), and the Euro, and weight each member as they choose.

ah, I see....really though I can pick a bunch of model ensembles of my choosing and make a graph of what I am thinking.....One thing is for sure the TVCN is not putting ANY weight towards the EURO or CMC latest runs....

[KFDM Meteorologist]

12Z EURO has weak inverted trough approaching LA/TX.

[Ivanhater]

I think it's pretty obvious what were seeing. If its weak, of course it will go more with the low level flow like the CMC and Euro, if its stronger the further north and east.