ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[ROCK]

There is no strong LLC here...it exposed to the sw of the convection as the shear it blowing off the t-storms to the NE....this is not vetically stacked...

There is not a strong LLC at the moment but its well on its way. Look at this water vapor loop notice that as the ULL to the north is pulling away the shear seems to be relaxing over the system.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

I am looking at the latest 1KM sat view...I see high clouds booking it SW to NE right over 97L...speed it up at 15 frames

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

Here is the latest shear map...

mid level:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... idshr.html

upper level:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Shear tendency: about the only positive right now other than convection is starting to emerge
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[MGC]

Looks like a fairly strong MCL just north of the DR....if convection persists then it should work its way to the surface.......MGC

[blp]

The models have been saying that development would not start to occur until today, and as WxMan stated that yesterday's convection was a bonus and was not expected. Whether it has a LLC at the moment nobody can say for sure but it is certainly in the right place were the models said it would start developing today so I think we need to see what happens today.

[tolakram]

Make Your own loop ... loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=20

Inflow from the south looking better, we'll have to wait and see if shear relaxes at all. The Shear products are all going to be 3 to 4 hours behind reality.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Morning Brian,

it sure took a beating last night. But some signs of life today, still a wait and see thing.

[gatorcane]

Looks like a fairly strong MCL just north of the DR....if convection persists then it should work its way to the surface.......MGC

and it looks like it is starting to lift away from the big island on a WNW heading.....should help inflow

I'm surprised they didn't schedule the plane to go out today though...with a 60% chance of development and the fact it is heading towards land areas in the Bahamas and maybe Florida after that.

[jaxfladude]

Well, I still have to keep an eye on this!
The Northeastern Florida area is looking at some rains and winds this Friday-Sunday time frame but not the full impact for now.
But this is still July and any thing can happen quickly.
Stay safe y'all.
Hope that all here on this forum is safe!
Stay safe y'all.

[Comanche]

All I see is 97L fading fast, cloud tops are warming, no deep convection anywhere in the vicinity, strong SSW shear from the ULL it is running into is ripping it up, not to mention the dry air associated with the ULL. NHC correctly cancelled recon as this thing looks pathetic!

[Bocadude85]

Looks like a fairly strong MCL just north of the DR....if convection persists then it should work its way to the surface.......MGC

and it looks like it is starting to lift away from the big island on a WNW heading.....should help inflow

I'm surprised they didn't schedule the plane to go out today though...with a 60% chance of development and the fact it is heading towards land areas in the Bahamas and maybe Florida after that.

I think that 60% will drop to 40-50% at 2pm.

[canes04]

Comanche,

Come back in 12hrs and give us your thoughts.
I see developing system.

[gatorcane]

It definitely seems like it is gradually getting better organized, since earlier this morning. Convection is not pulsing any longer and you can see it trying to wrap. Granted its not the deep red convection, but its sustaining. SSTs are in the mid 80s downstream where it is heading. If the shear also behaves and dry air gets mixed out some, it can become Bonnie.

[blp]

Morning Brian,

it sure took a beating last night. But some signs of life today, still a wait and see thing.

I tried not to get excited yesterday seeing it try to develop, because as Wxman stated earlier the models were showing today as the day for development and yesterday would have been unexpected. We will see what happens today.

[Ikester]

From what I can tell, the center is nearly exposed. This is definitely more of a 30% chance of development rather than a 60%.

[TexasF6]

It looks much better in visible....organization finally showing....

[Blown Away]

Observations:
1. Convection building again around "LLC", and the lower level convection is starting to push west through the shear wall which means shear is relaxing.
2. Appears to be moving slowly WNW to NW away from Hispaniola.
3. Going to impact the SE Bahamas, but is more than 700 MILES from SFL, that is alot of warm waters. I'm trusting the models keeping this at the most a strong TS.
4. IF SFL is impacted it will likely be late Friday early Saturday morning.

...Just my opinions only!!!

[blp]

Observations:
1. Convection building again around "LLC", and the lower level convection is starting to push west through the shear wall which means shear is relaxing.
2. Appears to be moving slowly WNW to NW away from Hispaniola.
3. Going to impact the SE Bahamas, but is more than 700 MILES from SFL, that is alot of warm waters. I'm trusting the models keeping this at the most a strong TS.
4. IF SFL is impacted it will likely be late Friday early Saturday morning.

...Just my opinions only!!!

Good observations. Convection not as impressive today but the structure looks better. Let's see if the models are right on this developing.

[Steve H.]

I think it's looking better this hour. If the shear relaxes it could ramp up quickly. Like the post earlier said, it is moving away from Hispaniola slowly and shoud wrap in some convection. Just don't see how the NHC missed or didn't consider the ULL that was moving SW in front of it yesterday in considering their percent development chnaces. They should be going up now, not down!

[canes04]

Blown Away,

Agree with your obs and we know what storms can do in this area.
ULL does seem to be lifting out, this could find a very favorable area in the next 48hrs.

[poof121]

No wonder the models have shifted west, take a look this steering currents loop. That's some high!

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/atlantic/movies/wg8dlm1/wg8dlm1java.html

[Stormcenter]

Still looking pretty poor (and I'm being nice here) based on this lastest visible loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html