ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - MODELS

[Ivanhater]

Well it aint doing anything tonight but then again it aint moving much either...if it goes across Cuba's moutainous terrain... I can see the CMC and EURO verifying....

Night Rock..see ya tomorrow!

[ROCK]

peace out!!

[KFDM Meteorologist]

0Z EURO has weak reflection in the isobars approaching TX Coast...

[Scorpion]

I'm starting to see this not do anything... probably gonna stay weak until it nears Texas and then hit it as a TS or something.

[HouTXmetro]

Mid lower or upper tx coast?

[Vortmax1]

I'm feeling better about this Invest and development...at least before Florida. I don't see much intensity here this morning.
And look at the NAM and UK way over there!

[floridasun78]

it look like EURO could be right it look weaker today. it look like few model didn't see dryair or ull that you see today on sat pic

[cycloneye]

12z tropical model suite

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1223 UTC WED JUL 21 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20100721 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100721 1200 100722 0000 100722 1200 100723 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.0N 70.0W 20.9N 72.5W 21.8N 75.0W 22.8N 76.9W
BAMD 20.0N 70.0W 21.0N 72.0W 22.2N 74.2W 23.4N 76.7W
BAMM 20.0N 70.0W 21.0N 72.2W 22.0N 74.3W 23.2N 76.4W
LBAR 20.0N 70.0W 20.8N 72.1W 22.0N 74.4W 23.1N 76.7W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 39KTS 44KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 39KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100723 1200 100724 1200 100725 1200 100726 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.9N 78.8W 26.0N 82.7W 27.5N 86.7W 28.4N 90.3W
BAMD 24.6N 79.4W 27.0N 85.3W 29.3N 89.8W 30.2N 92.5W
BAMM 24.4N 78.6W 26.2N 83.1W 27.5N 87.2W 28.2N 90.5W
LBAR 24.4N 79.1W 27.0N 83.8W 29.6N 86.9W 32.7N 87.8W
SHIP 49KTS 54KTS 58KTS 62KTS
DSHP 49KTS 49KTS 54KTS 57KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.0N LONCUR = 70.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 19.8N LONM12 = 68.2W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 19.4N LONM24 = 66.6W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Thunder44]

We'll have to see if the ULL can move out fast enough to allow this invest to develop over the next few days. But I think the GFS, GFDL, HWRF further north and stronger solutions are less likely to verify, with them showing a development north of Hispanola already. The Euro and Ukmet looks spot on so far with no development.

[barometerJane61]

12z tropical model suite

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_97.gif

Looks like a Katrina path.Hopefully it doesn't get any stronger than cat 1

...edited by wxman57 to remove re-posting of model suite and image tags.

[wxman57]

Models definitely shifted east overnight. 12Z run even farther eastward with only the Canadian west of the FL Panhandle, but it's not really the 12Z CMC.

[srainhoutx]

HPC thoughts this morning...

THE PRESSURES STARTED WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z CANADIAN/06Z GFS
PARALLEL...BEFORE SWITCHING TO A 06Z GFS PARALLEL/00Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPROMISE AFTER MONDAY MORNING WHICH MAINTAINS
REASONABLE CONTINUITY. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE TO
ENHANCE DEFINITION... AND TO YIELD A COMPROMISE FCST BETWEEN
FARTHER NORTHEASTWARD CONTINUITY VERSUS THE MAJORITY OF LATEST
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. A PERSISTENTLY STRONG SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE ALOFT ALONG
WITH VERIFICATION OF RECENT FEATURES FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO DO NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO INTO THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST FAVORED BY POINTS MENTIONED ON THE 16Z
NHC/MEDIUM RANGE COORDINATION CALL YESTERDAY...HENCE THE SOUTHWEST
ADJUSTMENT. A PERSISTENT LACK OF ECMWF ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR THIS
SYSTEM CALLS INTO QUESTION HOW STRONG OF A FEATURE WILL ACTUALLY
MATERIALIZE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THIS DISTURBANCE.

[StormClouds63]

The Euro may have the right solution to 97L after all ... remaining weak, poorly defined with shear over the north-central GOM.

[jasons2k]

I'm still sticking with the Euro...westward ho and probably not much out of this system until it clears the FL Straits....

[jasons2k]

Tidbit from Jeff Lindner...

The hurricane models: GFDL and HWRF turn the system NW shortly and take it toward NE FL which seems unlikely. The GFS, CMC, and ERUO all depict a weaker system moving more westward into the central Gulf of Mexico and this seems at the moment as the more likely solution given the current lack of organization.

[HouTXmetro]

to runs in a row the EURO showed Weak system into Texas...but it did shift north from South Texas/Northern Mexico right? waiting to see a trend.

[ROCK]

Tidbit from Jeff Lindner...

The hurricane models: GFDL and HWRF turn the system NW shortly and take it toward NE FL which seems unlikely. The GFS, CMC, and ERUO all depict a weaker system moving more westward into the central Gulf of Mexico and this seems at the moment as the more likely solution given the current lack of organization.

The EURO was the first to sniff this out and now we are seeing the other dynamics follow suite.....ala Ike...even the BAMMs have shifted left this am...

[ROCK]

to runs in a row the EURO showed Weak system into Texas...but it did shift north from South Texas/Northern Mexico right? waiting to see a trend.

Its about the same area....and weak


http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 100!!step/

[KFDM Meteorologist]

12Z Nam has very little, weak reflection in SW LA.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

[rockyman]

GFS Para and CMC Regional running.