ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[Vortmax1]

There's certainly no comparison to how this looked yesterday afternoon!
After observing the Caribbean WV loop this morning it appears the convection and moisture is getting stretched out and elongated from NE-SW a bit. It's getting a squeeze on it from two ULL's at the present time. There's a strong one moving from the East and the one to the NW of the system is still in play also.
This is really disrupting any development potential right now.
I don't know how long this will last but for the short term development does not look promising.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html

[floridasun78]

it look like shear from ull and dryair won

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[jlauderdal]

IR is showing us the western flank getting pounded with shear from that TUTT. Be careful though writing it off because it looks messy on IR. We have seen many a system that look like a sure bet on IR that never make TD. We need to know what is happening below and recon if it flies will tell us that, also we need visible to have a better handle on the structure. We have seen these TUTT's hang tough longer than expected and we have seen them disappear faster than expected but until that TUTT becomes less of an influence than the system is going nowhere fast in terms of development. Be interesting to see how the judge and jury handles the percentage at the next update, they are the voice of reason and are looking at many more tools than IR images. FYI, they didn't go 70% because they thought it was going to remain soupy.

[Blown Away]

Circulation center, if any, do you think it is on the east or west side of that ball of deeper convection?

[floridasun78]

IR is showing us the western flank getting pounded with shear from that TUTT. Be careful though writing it off because it looks messy on IR. We have seen many a system that look like a sure bet on IR that never make TD. We need to know what is happening below and recon if it flies will tell us that, also we need visible to have a better handle on the structure. We have seen these TUTT's hang tough longer than expected and we have seen them disappear faster than expected but until that TUTT becomes less of an influence than the system is going nowhere fast in terms of development. Be interesting to see how the judge and jury handles the percentage at the next update, they are the voice of reason and are looking at many more tools than IR images. FYI, they didn't go 70% because they thought it was going to remain soupy.

i think model didnt see dryair or tutt to west that are becoming big player

[Vortmax1]

All this SAL and dry air off to the West and NW is not going to help with development either.
If that TUTT on the NW side doesn't retrograde out of the picture soon there won't be a lot to talk about regarding development.
I know the NHC was expecting that feature to start clearing out and upped their percentage. But this morning the shear is still there and the TUTT is not budging yet.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html

[jlauderdal]

:uarrow:
Circulation center, if any, do you think it is on the east or west side of that ball of deeper convection?

what center, lol...i say east side...but your question points out why we need more data than IR

[jlauderdal]

IR is showing us the western flank getting pounded with shear from that TUTT. Be careful though writing it off because it looks messy on IR. We have seen many a system that look like a sure bet on IR that never make TD. We need to know what is happening below and recon if it flies will tell us that, also we need visible to have a better handle on the structure. We have seen these TUTT's hang tough longer than expected and we have seen them disappear faster than expected but until that TUTT becomes less of an influence than the system is going nowhere fast in terms of development. Be interesting to see how the judge and jury handles the percentage at the next update, they are the voice of reason and are looking at many more tools than IR images. FYI, they didn't go 70% because they thought it was going to remain soupy.

i think model didnt see dryair or tutt to west that are becoming big player

the euro has been bearish on development all the way through the life of the system

[jlauderdal]

All this SAL and dry air off to the West and NW is not going to help with development either.
If that TUTT on the NW side doesn't retrograde out of the picture soon there won't be a lot to talk about regarding development.
I know the NHC was expecting that feature to start clearing out and upped their percentage. But this morning the shear is still there and the TUTT is not budging yet.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html

the tutt is moving, the problem is its in tandem and not weakining, again these tutt's can be very unpredictable, we will know what nhc is thinking on tutt shortly

[Nimbus]

Just had to put the blow dryer on high overnight and poof!
There is still some convection north of the Dominican so it could come back.
Does the BAM shallow have a more westerly track for a weaker system today?

edit:

There does seem to be an LLC exposed on the west side of that ball of convection.
The convection gets displaced NE a little by the shear.

[wxman57]

It did look more impressive 12 hours ago, but I think chances of development are still high. Remember, NHC predictions are only for the next 48 hrs, which now extends to Friday morning. Thus the increase to 70%. Chances were higher past 48 hrs yesterday.

Could be a bit of shear that interrupted development overnight. This could be good news for south Florida. The longer it takes to develop, the less likely it will be a hurricane before it passes.

Time for work.

[HURAKAN]

Best Track

[Vortmax1]

This was the link I meant to post.
Bring this up and click the "Dry Air" button on top.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... 000&loop=0

[cycloneye]

The big question this morning is, will recon go?

[HURAKAN]

first visible

[Gustywind]

LATEST

See how the islands are always facing the assaults of 97L, let's hope frankly that this system will really move away. Most of the convection have been displaced east and spreading nicely on much of the islands. So more rain is coming

[HurrMark]

I don't know if it's a trend....but it seems that at least for the last few invests, a system may look really good in the evening, but then start to whimper out in the middle of the night. It definitely looks sheared now, and I do not see any development today. I suspect they may cancel recon. Not saying it will not develop, but it will take more time than people thought yesterday.

That said, the more time this takes to form, the less real estate it will have before it runs aground.

[Gustywind]

Nasty breakfast for this morning... Our local radio is just reporting localized flooding at les Abymes no so far of our airport of Le Raizet. Firemans are helping a family... their house have been litterally flooded. The situation is becoming worrying for some islands now, especially Vieques PR. Best thoughts my carib friends.

[wzrgirl1]

I don't believe they will cancel recon with a 70 % chance of development in the next 48 hours and it being so close to land. We will see as the day progresses, but the NHC does see something that we may not. They are the experts.