ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[CourierPR]

I think shear is still the main inhibiting factor here. That ULL to the NNW of 97L has been diving SW all day. That is why we are seeing an elongation of the disturbance during the past 6 hours. If this doesn't abate I think we won't have a well established surface circulation for a few days.

If that ULL is NNW of the system and diving SW then it wouldn't seem to be a great inhibiting factor, in my opinion.

[Macrocane]

some excitement brewing...

just stopping bye.....anyone have any preliminary potential with this thing....

high end TC....low end cane? as far as s. fl is concerned ....i could some family down there

I think it was Wxman57 who said that it could be a cat 1 or even cat 2 hurricane.

[cycloneye]

HURAKAN, looks a bit elongated.

[Bocadude85]

some excitement brewing...

just stopping bye.....anyone have any preliminary potential with this thing....

high end TC....low end cane? as far as s. fl is concerned ....i could some family down there

I think it was Wxman57 who said that it could be a cat 1 or even cat 2 hurricane.

Yes it was but I believe he was talking about the 2nd landfall and not the potential landfall in SE Fl

[hurricanefloyd5]

dose anyone have the site for the google earth hurricane models?????????

[gatorcane]

SSTs off the coast of Southern FL and Bahamas:

[MiamiHurricanes10]

some excitement brewing...

just stopping bye.....anyone have any preliminary potential with this thing....

high end TC....low end cane? as far as s. fl is concerned ....i could some family down there

I think it was Wxman57 who said that it could be a cat 1 or even cat 2 hurricane.

Yes it was but I believe he was talking about the 2nd landfall and not the potential landfall in SE Fl

This is what he said earlier:

"Busy day today. Satellite imagery indicates that 97L is well on its way to becoming a depression. Still lacks that well-defined LLC most likely, but I think it may be there when recon arrives tomorrow. Could even be a TS by tomorrow afternoon. After that, I don't see much to hinder continued intensification on Thu/Fri as it approaches S. FL. Could easily be a hurricane by then.

Next question would be about the track. Lots of uncertainty as to the strength of the ridge to the north Fri-Sun. Models have not been consistent in that area. Euro is stronger with the ridge on the 12Z run and the GFS is weaker. Canadian is in between. I don't trust the HWRF as far as I could throw it (yet), and the GFDL doesn't do well with weak systems. Forget the BAMs, as they won't be good in this situation.

I do think that there is a significant hurricane risk to SE FL, including Miami and Palm Beach. Probably not so much north of Vero Beach. It could pass anywhere from the FL Straits near northern Cuba to north of Palm Beach. You folks there better have your hurricane supplies. And then there's the track west of Florida.

I don't have much confidence on how strong the ridge to the north will be by Friday/Saturday. My gut is saying Pensacola as the most likely point of landfall (or maybe I'm just hungry). Realistically, it could strike as far west as Louisiana, though. I'd say the prime area of final landfall would be from New Orleans east to Apalachicola. Odds are good it'll be a hurricane at final landfall. Probably a Cat 1-2 and not a very big one. But all hurricanes are very dangerous."

[blp]

HURAKAN, looks a bit elongated.

I noticed the same thing. It looks worse than it did 3 hours ago.

3hours ago


Current

[South Texas Storms]

dose anyone have the site for the google earth hurricane models?????????

spaghettimodels.com

[Blown Away]

Nice SST map, if 97L landfalls farther up on the FL coast it could spend more time over juicy hot waters!

[Bocadude85]

Nice SST map, if 97L landfalls farther up on the FL coast it could spend more time over juicy hot waters!

Yes the waters off Palm Beach are a toasty 87 degrees

[HURAKAN]

Lonelymike asked for the panhandle area

[gatorcane]

Any chance the LLC is relocating farther ENE? Seems like more intense convection north of the Western tip of Puerto Rico that keeps blowing up in one concentrated area.

[Gustywind]

Gigantic system and we're only in July... plenty of moisture on the Lesser Antilles!

[Blown Away]

Any chance the LLC is relocating farther ENE? Seems like more intense convection north of the Western tip of Puerto Rico that keeps blowing up in one concentrated area.

Yes, I think we will find the closest thing to a LLC near the bubbling convection at @19.2N/67W. I don't think these E relocations are factored into these models?

[lonelymike]

120 hours 65 knots what????

[gatorcane]

Any chance the LLC is relocating farther ENE? Seems like more intense convection north of the Western tip of Puerto Rico that keeps blowing up in one concentrated area.

Yes, I think we will find the closest thing to a LLC near the bubbling convection at @19.2N/67W. I don't think these E relocations are factored into these models?

Not at the moment. If the center forms farther ENE, just means a more right shift of the overall WNW vector, models are in good agreement of a WNW track for the next 3-4 days.

[TexasF6]

Miami Discussion:

ATTENTINON THEN TURNS TO THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE NEAR PUERTO
RICO. NHC IS MONITORING THIS WAVE NEAR FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. IN FACT...THEY INCREASED THE PROBABILITY OF
DEVELOPMENT NEXT 48 HR TO 60%. THIS WAVE NEEDS TO BE CLOSELY
WATCHED AS MOVEMENT WILL CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WEST NORTHWEST
TRACK TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN/GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SOUTH FL IN THE
FRI-SAT TIME FRAME...WITH FOCUS LOOKING LIKE FRIDAY. HAVE
INCLUDED THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. FORECAST DETAILS
WILL BE MORE PINNED DOWN IN THE COMING DAYS (OF COURSE!)...AND ALL
IS DEPENDENT ON WHETHER OR NOT THIS WAVE DEVELOPS. POPS WERE
INCREASED THU NIGHT-SAT ALONG WITH SKY COVER. THE FORECAST FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. STAY TUNED. /GREGORIA


And we wait for the almighty EURO, which will handle the high pressure better....

[Bocadude85]

Any chance the LLC is relocating farther ENE? Seems like more intense convection north of the Western tip of Puerto Rico that keeps blowing up in one concentrated area.

Yes, I think we will find the closest thing to a LLC near the bubbling convection at @19.2N/67W. I don't think these E relocations are factored into these models?

Not at the moment. If the center forms farther ENE, just means a more right shift of the overall WNW vector, models are in good agreement of a WNW track for the next 3-4 days.

Im wondering what the chances are that this will never develop? IMO 97L isnt looking as good as it was earlier

[HURAKAN]

120 hours 65 knots what????

Seems to be a mistake.

Code: Select all

AL, 97, 2010072100, 03, OFC2,   0, 198N,  685W,  30,    0,   ,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 97, 2010072100, 03, OFC2,  12, 206N,  704W,  33,    0,   ,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 97, 2010072100, 03, OFC2,  24, 216N,  725W,  38,    0,   ,  34, NEQ,   18,    9,   17,   18,
AL, 97, 2010072100, 03, OFC2,  36, 227N,  747W,  43,    0,   ,  34, NEQ,   28,   18,   28,   28,
AL, 97, 2010072100, 03, OFC2,  48, 240N,  771W,  48,    0,   ,  34, NEQ,   36,   24,   34,   36,
AL, 97, 2010072100, 03, OFC2,  60, 252N,  793W,  52,    0,   ,  34, NEQ,   42,   26,   38,   42,
AL, 97, 2010072100, 03, OFC2,  60, 252N,  793W,  52,    0,   ,  50, NEQ,   29,   15,    0,   29,
AL, 97, 2010072100, 03, OFC2,  72, 262N,  811W,  51,    0,   ,  34, NEQ,   43,   26,   39,   43,
AL, 97, 2010072100, 03, OFC2,  72, 262N,  811W,  51,    0,   ,  50, NEQ,   30,   16,    0,   30,
AL, 97, 2010072100, 03, OFC2,  84, 273N,  827W,  50,    0,   ,  34, NEQ,   44,   29,   40,   44,
AL, 97, 2010072100, 03, OFC2,  84, 273N,  827W,  50,    0,   ,  50, NEQ,   31,   17,    2,   31,
AL, 97, 2010072100, 03, OFC2,  96, 286N,  842W,  53,    0,   ,  34, NEQ,   46,   41,   44,   46,
AL, 97, 2010072100, 03, OFC2,  96, 286N,  842W,  53,    0,   ,  50, NEQ,   35,   35,   10,   35,
AL, 97, 2010072100, 03, OFC2, 108, 301N,  857W,  58,    0,   ,  34, NEQ,   48,   56,   49,   48,
AL, 97, 2010072100, 03, OFC2, 108, 301N,  857W,  58,    0,   ,  50, NEQ,   39,   39,   19,   39,
AL, 97, 2010072100, 03, OFC2, 120, 317N,  872W,  65,    0,   ,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0,