ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[flamingosun]

Yes - This year there was one at 80%- on 6/25 at the 2 PM
It was just before TD One (which became Alex) was declared.

[Vortex]

latest satellite imagery is continuing to show improved organization especially in the last 2-3 hours..What a difference 48 hours can make...

[HURAKAN]

latest satellite imagery is continuing to show improved organization especially in the last 2-3 hours..What a difference 48 hours can make...

Yep. Clearly it's on its way.

[HURAKAN]

"Official" Track or Internal Track.

For those in South Florida that want a closer look

[johngaltfla]

Let's hope is stays on that track, and stays weak. We don't want it spending a whole lot of time in the gulf.

Cyclone1, let's not. Last time a hurricane/TS passed over us moving slow SE to NW, I had to fix water damage for ages. Erin (when I lived near Orlando) was not fun. I think the track gets moved again in 24 hours further to the south because that high over the Bahamas could easily build a little further to the west. We'll know more in the next 24 hours after recon gets a better picture of the system.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

"Official" Track or Internal Track.

For those in South Florida that want a closer look

Down here in Miami I'm just watching the situation, no major plans in place for now.

[Frank P]

that track would not disrupt the storm very much if it was moving 10-15 mph...

[Blown Away]

The dry air to the NW is slowly moistening and I think in another 12 hours that dry won't be an issue.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[lonelymike]

http://img85.imageshack.us/img85/4657/97l.jpg

97L "Official" Track

What's the five day track forecast error? Something like 300 miles? This track can and will probably change


...edited by wxman57 to remove IMG tags

[RL3AO]

I'd give it an 80% chance of becoming a TC in the next 48hrs (unofficial of course). That might be a bit low too.


As for the NHC going above 60%, they had Alex at 80% I think and the first EPAC depression went from 90% to "near 100%" right before the advisory was issued.

My guess is the NHC goes 70% at the next TWO.

[jlauderdal]

http://img268.imageshack.us/img268/6356/97lu.jpg

"Official" Track or Internal Track.

For those in South Florida that want a closer look

Down here in Miami I'm just watching the situation, no major plans in place for now.

good idea when you consider the track error this far out, 150 miles on either side of that track at 48h wouldn't be unusual at all


...edited by wxman57 to remove IMG tags

[MiamiHurricanes10]

The dry air to the NW is slowly moistening and I think in another 12 hours that dry won't be an issue.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

Yep, the environment continues to moisten up. If this continues, it will just be yet another thing in 97L's favor.

[sunnyday]

Does anyone see a chance that the potential storm might slow down and not get to the SFL area so quickly (by Friday), assuming that track pans out?

[srainhoutx]

Once again folks. Please do not post images in quoted posts. Dial up and twitter are following. Thank You!

[MiamiHurricanes10]

00z PSU 925mb vorticity would suggest that a new center is reforming under the deepest convection just north of the eastern tip of Puerto Rico. If this holds true, it's yet another thing in 97L's favor as it would spend more time over water before arriving to Florida southeastern coast.

[cpdaman]

some excitement brewing...

just stopping bye.....anyone have any preliminary potential with this thing....

high end TC....low end cane? as far as s. fl is concerned ....i could some family down there

[Steve H.]

I think shear is still the main inhibiting factor here. That ULL to the NNW of 97L has been diving SW all day. That is why we are seeing an elongation of the disturbance during the past 6 hours. If this doesn't abate I think we won't have a well established surface circulation for a few days.

[DanKellFla]

Well, I am not going out to buy gas just yet.

[Blown Away]

TAFB 72 Hours, so NHC thinking late Friday or early Saturday morning landfall.

[HURAKAN]

vorticity @ 00z