ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - MODELS

[Dean4Storms]

Actually looks a bit east of P'Cola near Navarre!

[AdamFirst]

Now that I know the OFCI is the internal NHC track, it is very interesting that you and the NHC have very similar thoughts at this point. HPC is in agreement as well.

That makes my weather all the more interesting if it follows that one.

[Rainband]

Here's a plot I made of the 18Z models taking out some that won't do well here (BAMs, climo models, NAM). I did include the NOGAPS, though it's often the worst-performing model. It is on the far left of the other guidance, almost. The only one that misses south Florida. Note the 18Z NHC preliminary forecast taking it into Pensacola.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/models.gif

well I really don't like that cone i am in the middle. There isn't a center yet so time to wait and see. I think it all depends on where and when it forms and how the high holds. anything in the GOM right now will make the oil situation worse. that's the sad part.


*edited by southerngale to remove the IMG tags

[SFLcane]

Wxman57 can you plot the 00z models on the same map? Thanks so much.

[Ivanhater]

Actually looks a bit east of P'Cola near Navarre!

Well Metro P'cola

[fwbbreeze]

Actually looks a bit east of P'Cola near Navarre!

Well Metro P'cola

Greater Pensacola/Fort Walton Beach Metro area

[Bocadude85]

Here's a plot I made of the 18Z models taking out some that won't do well here (BAMs, climo models, NAM). I did include the NOGAPS, though it's often the worst-performing model. It is on the far left of the other guidance, almost. The only one that misses south Florida. Note the 18Z NHC preliminary forecast taking it into Pensacola.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/models.gif

I don't know why but I just have this feeling that the models are to far north... I am still thinking south of Florida.. but I could be wrong


*edited by southerngale to remove the IMG tags

[Dean4Storms]

I don't know Rainband, it could actually help to add oxygen to the water with the upwelling and break up what oil is left out there as well. With it now capped we are in much better shape anyway.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 00z "official" track HURAKAN posted on the other thread looks to be a slight bit north and east of the 18z track (link to HURAKAN's image: http://img85.imageshack.us/img85/4657/97l.jpg ).

If this NHC early track were to actually come to be, then that would put quite a bit of southern and central Florida on the "dirty" side of the storm. Cities like Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Fort Myers and Tampa could be hit particular hard if this path played out (especially if Bonnie was a hurricane), with cities further north such as Palm Beach, Melbourne and Orlando also being impacted by some of the storm's outer effects, including the threat for heavy rain bands and tornadoes. Not a pretty way to end the week if such a scenario verified.


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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Blown Away]

Here's a plot I made of the 18Z models taking out some that won't do well here (BAMs, climo models, NAM). I did include the NOGAPS, though it's often the worst-performing model. It is on the far left of the other guidance, almost. The only one that misses south Florida. Note the 18Z NHC preliminary forecast taking it into Pensacola.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/models.gif

I don't know why but I just have this feeling that the models are to far north... I am still thinking south of Florida.. but I could be wrong

The circulation has moved very little today and the longer it takes to get moving west the sooner it will feel the eroding ridge in a few days. The circulation center has relocated slightly east since 18z. We have seen the models slightly trend east today, this morning models targeted Keys to La/Miss and this evening models are targeting SFL/Panhandle. I believe this will end up being a 1995 Erin type track, only if 97 develops.


*edited by southerngale to remove the IMG tags

[southerngale]

Please remove the IMG tags when quoting posts with an image. The image will still be clickable in the post. Thanks.

wxman57's graphic was on this page 4 times. It's just not necessary and loads slow for those still on dial-up, etc.

[ROCK]

we wait on the EURO since it doesnt post with the dynamics....consensus though for every other model looks pretty straight forward.....but if the EURO doesnt jump on board tonight then it will have to weighed accordingly....JMO of course...

[StormClouds63]

Amen to the poster who pointed out that SST are but one factor in development and/or intensification. Upper air patterns are much more significant. Obviously, some of the models are seeing shear or dry air in the central GOM. Let's hope that verifies.

[jlauderdal]

Please remove the IMG tags when quoting posts with an image. The image will still be clickable in the post. Thanks.

wxman57's graphic was on this page 4 times. It's just not necessary and loads slow for those still on dial-up, etc.

For those on dial-up, PM me because i have some quick loading 48 frame sat movies for your viewing pleasure,

[southerngale]

We just don't need the images repeated in quotes, jlauderdal. It's fine to post images, of course. If you think your 48 frame sat movies are too long to post on here as an image though, just post the link.

[A1A]

I don't mean to digress to web browser issues but I believe this to be true:

If you use the same graphic bullets and arrows throughout your page, you can enhance your page's appearance, but you won't add any additional time to your web page load time. When you reuse an image, your image only has to load once. When the image has loaded, it will instantly be displayed in all of the other locations.

Generally, when commenting to a past image posts if it is not reposted you will totally lose your repost purpose! As fast as these threads move and as many images are posted, how many of us go back and even if we tried to it would be confusing with other images. As far as I'm concerned, if you don't repost the image, you are just wasting your time even referring to it or doing the follow up post. I'm not going to get your point.

[HouTXmetro]

we wait on the EURO since it doesnt post with the dynamics....consensus though for every other model looks pretty straight forward.....but if the EURO doesnt jump on board tonight then it will have to weighed accordingly....JMO of course...

HaHa,I agree.....the proof is in the pudding but let's not start a debate.

[jbgreig]

I don't mean to digress to web browser issues but I believe this to be true:

If you use the same graphic bullets and arrows throughout your page, you can enhance your page's appearance, but you won't add any additional time to your web page load time. When you reuse an image, your image only has to load once. When the image has loaded, it will instantly be displayed in all of the other locations.

Generally, when commenting to a past image posts if it is not reposted you will totally lose your repost purpose! As fast as these threads move and as many images are posted, how many of us go back and even if we tried to it would be confusing with other images. As far as I'm concerned, if you don't repost the image, you are just wasting your time even referring to it or doing the follow up post. I'm not going to get your point.

Yes, this is true. Each image will only load once per page... And will likely be cached on subsequent pages.

[southerngale]

A1A... that's not what I was told, but that's good to know, assuming it's true. Regardless, that was only part of the reason for the request, which we've made for many years. Mainly, it's not necessary and just clutters up the thread. If you're quoting a post with an image from several pages back, that's one thing, but when it's just a couple of posts up, you honestly think it's confusing? It's just not necessary to be on the same page 4 times, thus the reason for my original post. Besides, it's not like the image isn't there when you remove the IMG tags. It can still be clicked for anyone who wants to see it again and doesn't feel like scrolling up a few posts.

Speaking of cluttering up the thread, we're way off models now, so if you want to talk about it further, please PM me. We're not going to ban anyone over it... it's just a request to help the threads run smoother.

[Patrick99]

Wow, that NOGAPS plot would be a really bad solution for the middle Keys...that's some good time over really warm water if that verified.