ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[KWT]

STS, no where is out of the woods yet, still far too early in the game to know either way. So whilst I wouldn't lose sleep over it yet, just keep an eye on it...

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

Something is not lining up for me, since the 18z "Best Track" has the circulation moved WNW, if yes it's removed from the deep convection? If no, then the circulation center has relocated NE of the 18z "Best Track". Look at the satellite loop, very little convection from the 18z position to the west?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

It could get pretty windy this Friday over SE FL. Wxman mentioned hurricane possibly. That has
my attention. Looking like it is definately getting going...TD by early tomorrow morning?

[Blown Away]

I also see a spin over Hispaniola at 19N/70W?

[Dean4Storms]

Looking at the OP GFS it looks like it keeps an ULL just to the NW of our storm as it cross southern Florida region and eventually becomes stationary over LA. This may very well keep this system sheared to a degree and especially once in the GOM. I think this is why the GFS ensembles do very little with this intensity wise, especially in the GOM.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[Ptarmigan]

The Gulf should really watch 97L, likely to be Bonnie soon.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Can someone with more knowledge than me, reflect on the 18z GFS run. It shows a weaker system coming into S, fla then right behind it another small circulation skiming the south east coast.

[Bocadude85]

I am not sure that I understand how this would go from the mess it is right now to being a hurricane threat to SE Fl by friday? is there something I am missing here? I know wxman said he thinks this is a possible hurricane threat to SE Fl but I just dont see it.

[RL3AO]

I am not sure that I understand how this would go from the mess it is right now to being a hurricane threat to SE Fl by friday? is there something I am missing here? I know wxmas said he thinks this is a possible hurricane threat to SE Fl but I just dont see it.

Its not a mess. Its probably going to be a depression/storm tomorrow. It could easily be a hurricane by Friday.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 97, 2010072100, , BEST, 0, 198N, 685W, 30, 1012, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[KWT]

Looking at the OP GFS it looks like it keeps an ULL just to the NW of our storm as it cross southern Florida region and eventually becomes stationary over LA. This may very well keep this system sheared to a degree and especially once in the GOM. I think this is why the GFS ensembles do very little with this intensity wise, especially in the GOM.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

Certainly the models must be doing something with the ULL and keeping it in tandem would certainly explain why the GFS and some other models don't really strengthen much, esp in the Gulf.

The problem of course as per normal is the models really do tend to be poor when it comes to upper level features, seen them bust numerous times!

[southerngale]

Hey guys... a reminder for the regulars and to let our new members know... please keep posts in the Active Storms forum on topic. We're a little more strict in this forum and as 97L potentially develops, people will be looking for information. "I agree," "hmm," and similar types of posts are chatroom style and will usually get deleted by staff if seen. Questions and comments are welcomed...that's what we're here for. This isn't a professionals only board, but in the interest of time and space, it is not necessary to post every single thought that pops in your head. That's chatroom style. And we do have a chatroom. Click the link in my signature. Please stay on topic and if you have a lot of comments to make at once, take the time to consolidate your thoughts into one post.

Remember: quality over quantity. Storm2k is a fun place to be and we want to keep it that way. When the weather begins to turn more serious though, naturally the forum will too.

Thanks.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The only hindrances I see for 97L are some shear from the ULL and proximity to land...but it is slowly moving away from land and shear appears to be decreasing so that means there is certainly a chance for this to be a strong TS or greater prior to
reaching SE FL and the straits.

A more northerly track would lessen proximity to land but place it closer to the ULL...and a strengthening
system- would it go further north or would it pump the ridge and go south (gatorcane
mentioned this question earlier)??? There are a lot of uncertainties


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Blown Away]

Am I the only one that thinks the circulation is consolidating east of the 18Z position? Basically near the NW tip of PR?

[MWatkins]

00z Best Track

AL, 97, 2010072100, , BEST, 0, 198N, 685W, 30, 1012, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

That's quite an adjustment back east and north after the 18Z initial position of 19.5N 68.2W.

I think they were a little too far west with the initial position back then. That's .3 North and .3 West, I don't think it's been moving NW.

Also, it seems to be moving slowly. The 6 hour motion was 18 NM/6 hours = 3 knots.

The actual motion might be twice that, but it is no where near the 10 knots they initialized at 18Z.

Until we actually get a center to track, the real motion is going to be hard to determine. That, to me, is what makes this stuff interesting.

MW

[cycloneye]

Two things about the 00z Best Track. First is moving at 290 degrees at 8kts,more slowly and second,the longitud position is more east than the 18z one.

LATCUR = 19.8N LONCUR = 68.5W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 8KT

[Bocadude85]

Am I the only one that thinks the circulation is consolidating east of the 18Z position? Basically near the NW tip of PR?

It could be.. we have seen it happen many times when storms are in their formative stages

[vbhoutex]

so is a texas landfall completely out of the question right now?

No it is not out of the question. Is it probable? Not at this time based on the models and the steering patterns they are showing. It is really too early to say but, Never say never in the tropics.

[Vortex]

Winds just shifted to the NW along the NW portion of PR.


Current Weather Conditions:
Aquadilla, Rafael Hernandez Airport, PR, United States
(TJBQ) 18-30N 067-08W 69M

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Conditions at Jul 20, 2010 - 07:50 PM EDTJul 20, 2010 - 06:50 PM CDTJul 20, 2010 - 05:50 PM MDTJul 20, 2010 - 04:50 PM PDTJul 20, 2010 - 03:50 PM ADTJul 20, 2010 - 02:50 PM HDT
2010.07.20 2350 UTC
Wind from the NW (320 degrees) at 9 MPH (8 KT)
Visibility 5 mile(s)
Weather Rain with thunder
Lightning observed
Temperature 77 F (25 C)
Pressure (altimeter) 30.01 in. Hg (1016 hPa)
ob TJBQ 202350Z 32008KT 5SM TSRA BK010 25/ A3001 LTG OVHD DSNT ALQDS

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24 Hour Summary
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 8 PM (0) Jul 20 77 (25) 30.01 (1016) NW 9 rain with thunder
7 PM (23) Jul 20 77 (25) 29.99 (1015) ENE 5 rain with thunder
6 PM (22) Jul 20 78 (26) 29.97 (1014) ESE 5 rain

[MiamiHurricanes10]

00z SHIPS takes 97L as a category 1 into south Florida. 00z "official" takes 97L into south Florida as a strong TS.