ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[NWFWatcher]

Thats what worries me the most. Looks like a very good chance the Gulf Coast is going to see a storm or hurricane. I am hoping it doesn't take an Erin path.

[Blown Away]

That convective bubble starting in the middle of where the low may be forming is impressive...my guess is this is the start of the LLC pulling itself together.

I don't expect an upgrade to TD status tonight...but it will be interesting to see if it gets an upgrade before recon gets out there tomorrow.

Still hard to tell if the ULL is helping or hurting at this point. Either way, this is going to be a short fuse deal for SFL.

A good test to see if people have their hurricane plans and supplies together.

MW

I was thinking 97L was looking a little ragged rate now, especially w/ a blast of shear that has flattened the NW side. I see the "bubbling" you are referring to and that may be a sign of more organization.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Good Evening to everyone,

Like everyone else here I look forward to several of the main players on this board. WXMAN57 being one of those people, I have to admit I have been watching loops and models like most of us here. But when Wxman57 gives this a good chance of being a cane knocking on my door by Friday I was a bit surprised. Guess I will do tomorrow what I should have done already, check the generator and other basic things. Everyone in S. FLA stay safe.

[Ikester]

The old joke at the office is "the best place to be is in the middle of the cone 5 days out." Keep in mind that IT IS A JOKE.... It's just a funny way of saying that the 'cone' is going to shift quite possibly many times before final landfall of 'Bonnie'.

[Alacane2]

Good chance Miami will be under at least a hurricane watch and quite likely a hurricane warning by Thursday morning (maybe earlier). I'm concerned about final landfall as far west as Louisiana. I'm not thinking we're at risk yet in Houston, though. But if it gets THAT far west then it could be bigger and stronger than what I'd expect for the FL Panhandle to SE LA.

Wxman57, when would you expect to see landfall if the system were to strike between Southeast Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle?

[cycloneye]

Mantains at 60%

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WESTWARD TO HISPANIOLA.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS NOT YET
FORMED. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE... 60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC... HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...
AND THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HEAVY RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[JPmia]

That convective bubble starting in the middle of where the low may be forming is impressive...my guess is this is the start of the LLC pulling itself together.

I don't expect an upgrade to TD status tonight...but it will be interesting to see if it gets an upgrade before recon gets out there tomorrow.

Still hard to tell if the ULL is helping or hurting at this point. Either way, this is going to be a short fuse deal for SFL.

A good test to see if people have their hurricane plans and supplies together.

MW

Mike we all know the answer to your proposition of preparedness unfortunately. I read WXman57's post and almost fell out of my seat! This will be getting very interesting as not many people are even thinking about this down here at the moment.

[SunnyThoughts]

I"ve been whining about my power bill for 2 months now, wishing it wouldn't be so high, guess its like the old adage..be careful what you wish for. So blooming hot out, sure don't look forward to being without power. Hopefully Bonnie ( as apparently this will become) won't bring too much havoc to anyone...everybody stay safe, and be prepared.

[Nimbus]

I was hoping that TUTT would keep pulling dry air down Florida and blast this thing in hair dryer mode. Not much else to slow it down. YUCH!

[redfish1]

if this was going to hit south florida it should start gaining latitude soon right. from what i am seeing it is still going due west which would discount the more northerly models????????

[southerngale]

if this was going to hit south florida it should start gaining latitude soon right. from what i am seeing it is still going due west which would discount the more northerly models????????

I believe it has plenty of time to gain latitude and still hit south Florida.

[gatorcane]

if this was going to hit south florida it should start gaining latitude soon right. from what i am seeing it is still going due west which would discount the more northerly models????????

I believe it has plenty of time to gain latitude and still hit south Florida.

Agreed. I think people that don't follow these systems in S. FL on a regular basis take a look and see that it is not a named system, it is fairly far south in lattitude and think they are OK (especially since we have gotten quite lucky over the past few years with some systems -- IKE in particular -- which dived SW missing SE FL entirely) Hopefully all hurricane preparations plans have been completed.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

The old joke at the office is "the best place to be is in the middle of the cone 5 days out." Keep in mind that IT IS A JOKE.... It's just a funny way of saying that the 'cone' is going to shift quite possibly many times before final landfall of 'Bonnie'.

Ikester,

I know the old saying but in this case I don't think so.

[Aric Dunn]

well there goes the sun... time to sit back and wait till morning.. not much to watch over night..

[Ivanhater]

I've come to find out Hurakan those maps are horrible and extremely inaccurate.

[tina25]

I'm in southwest Florida and it has been pretty windy today. Hot and windy.

These next few days will be interesting for sure. I'm glad I went out earlier today and bought a battery operated fan and stocked my water/food supply. You can never be too sure.

[HURAKAN]

I've come to find out Hurakan those maps are horrible and extremely inaccurate.

Yep! I post it for comedic purposes!!

[Weatherboy1]

I think MWatkins may be on to something. If we see convection continue to fire overnight in that area just to the NE of Hispanola, I think we could easily see a LLC in the first visible sat shots tomorrow morning.

[KWT]

if this was going to hit south florida it should start gaining latitude soon right. from what i am seeing it is still going due west which would discount the more northerly models????????

All depends on where any center set-ups, I think odds are just as high as it going through the straits as it is for a S.Florida landfall...

I'd be a little surprised if they upgrade it before recon, no real reason to do so unless some strong and compelling proof comes in via obs that there is a LLC. That being said its clearly getting close to that point in the game where we get our next system.

[South Texas Storms]

so is a texas landfall completely out of the question right now?