ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[hurricaneCW]

So what kind of impacts could we have on the oil spill region?

[KWT]

:eek: at wxman57 ... I guess I won't have that Calculus test on Friday

Good chance Miami will be under at least a hurricane watch and quite likely a hurricane warning by Thursday morning (maybe earlier). I'm concerned about final landfall as far west as Louisiana. I'm not thinking we're at risk yet in Houston, though. But if it gets THAT far west then it could be bigger and stronger than what I'd expect for the FL Panhandle to SE LA.

My main worry is the models underdoing the upper high. In the current QBO phase and La Nina the subtropics tend to have some very beefy upper highs indeed and the models haven't handled them too well at times...

Sure looks like a developing syzstem, I'm going to miss any first landfall FWIW with stuff going on but I'll be around probably to see any 2nd landfall...one thing I am noting is all ther global models weaken the system in the Gulf, which must be because something probably shears it or dry air works in.

I do agree though Td3 is comnig tomorrow on current trends, its getting there. Upto 70% IMO.

[Bocadude85]

:eek: at wxman57 ... I guess I won't have that Calculus test on Friday

Good chance Miami will be under at least a hurricane watch and quite likely a hurricane warning by Thursday morning (maybe earlier). I'm concerned about final landfall as far west as Louisiana. I'm not thinking we're at risk yet in Houston, though. But if it gets THAT far west then it could be bigger and stronger than what I'd expect for the FL Panhandle to SE LA.

What intensity are you thinking for the first landfall in SE fl? Im in Southern Palm Beach County.. should I be concerned? I have been thinking this would pass south of the Florida mainland.

[mvtrucking]

:eek: at wxman57 ... I guess I won't have that Calculus test on Friday

Good chance Miami will be under at least a hurricane watch and quite likely a hurricane warning by Thursday morning (maybe earlier). I'm concerned about final landfall as far west as Louisiana. I'm not thinking we're at risk yet in Houston, though. But if it gets THAT far west then it could be bigger and stronger than what I'd expect for the FL Panhandle to SE LA.

I really hope it gets blown apart and nobody gets it. (Especially NOLA, the Saints start training camp shortly. )

[ConvergenceZone]

wow, looks like this board is about to get really busy....

[tgenius]

So Miami could be in a Hurricane Warning as early as Friday morning? I'm not liking the quickness this could be developing in...

[NWFWatcher]

Depends where this thing goes across Florida but it looks like it could go the same path Erin did in 95.

[KWT]

Gotta admit though thats an impressive strength call from Wxman57, a possible hurricane before Florida would be pretty impressive given where this one was 36-48hrs ago!

[wxman57]

Hey all. I'm from Miami, but on vacation in the Turks & Caicos. Flying back to Miami Saturday morning (I think!). I either have the best or the worst timing in the world (depending on how you look at it!).

Anyways, just saw this on the news. Not sure how close this thing is supposed to go over the Turks, but so far gotta tell you, it's a beautiful day! Sunny skies, a bit windy, but it's been windy for the last 2 days.

I'll try to post observations every once in a while (assuming the system passes close to here of course). See ya.

Your weather won't be nice much longer. Squalls should begin by sunrise tomorrow off and on. Possibly TS conditions there by tomorrow night/early Thursday. It will pass just to the south of you tomorrow evening.

[Hurricane Andrew]

WOW. THis thing is really getting organized!

[wxman57]

So Miami could be in a Hurricane Warning as early as Friday morning? I'm not liking the quickness this could be developing in...

I said THURSDAY morning, not Friday morning. Warnings are issued at least 36 hours before potential impact.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Um..wxman said hurricane. my first thought was...Miami is doomed.

(Good post wxman)

[Macrocane]

There's already a thread about it.

[MWatkins]

That convective bubble starting in the middle of where the low may be forming is impressive...my guess is this is the start of the LLC pulling itself together.

I don't expect an upgrade to TD status tonight...but it will be interesting to see if it gets an upgrade before recon gets out there tomorrow.

Still hard to tell if the ULL is helping or hurting at this point. Either way, this is going to be a short fuse deal for SFL.

A good test to see if people have their hurricane plans and supplies together.

MW

[Scorpion]

So Miami could be in a Hurricane Warning as early as Friday morning? I'm not liking the quickness this could be developing in...

I said THURSDAY morning, not Friday morning. Warnings are issued at least 36 hours before potential impact.

Wow, that sure would catch alot of people off guard!

[Ivanhater]

Already a thread on 97L

Thread locked

[Houstonia]

:eek: at wxman57 ... I guess I won't have that Calculus test on Friday

Good chance Miami will be under at least a hurricane watch and quite likely a hurricane warning by Thursday morning (maybe earlier). I'm concerned about final landfall as far west as Louisiana. I'm not thinking we're at risk yet in Houston, though. But if it gets THAT far west then it could be bigger and stronger than what I'd expect for the FL Panhandle to SE LA.

If it hits as far west as Louisiana, Houston/SE Texas will be on the dry side, and we could easily get nothing but blue skies and dry weather, right?

Bad for the oil and the rigs and all though.

...and I know.. early days... early days...

[Aric Dunn]

That convective bubble starting in the middle of where the low may be forming is impressive...my guess is this is the start of the LLC pulling itself together.

I don't expect an upgrade to TD status tonight...but it will be interesting to see if it gets an upgrade before recon gets out there tomorrow.

Still hard to tell if the ULL is helping or hurting at this point. Either way, this is going to be a short fuse deal for SFL.

A good test to see if people have their hurricane plans and supplies together.

MW

yeah I dont think they will upgrade unless they are confident in a threat to florida so that there is enough lead time..

nice too see you around again mike ...

[MiamiHurricanes10]

:eek: at wxman57 ... I guess I won't have that Calculus test on Friday

Good chance Miami will be under at least a hurricane watch and quite likely a hurricane warning by Thursday morning (maybe earlier). I'm concerned about final landfall as far west as Louisiana. I'm not thinking we're at risk yet in Houston, though. But if it gets THAT far west then it could be bigger and stronger than what I'd expect for the FL Panhandle to SE LA.

Not good at all since I live in Miami. Thanks for your insight.

[tgenius]

So Miami could be in a Hurricane Warning as early as Friday morning? I'm not liking the quickness this could be developing in...

I said THURSDAY morning, not Friday morning. Warnings are issued at least 36 hours before potential impact.

My problem is that I'm in charge of BCP at work and a Hurricane Warning would kick off some heavy duty prep that I really don't want to start... less a day early! (Plus I'm short a guy in my dept!)