ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - MODELS

[Ivanhater]

Operational still Central Gulf coast

[artist]

Mike, what are your thoughts on this? Do you think south FL could be in its cross hairs? I know you really analyze everything really well.

Hi Artist,

Thanks for the nice post there...

At a high level, yes I think this is going to come close enough to be a problem starting sometime on Thursday. There's little doubt that it's heading in our general direction...anywhere from the Keys to Vero seems to be the best place to start looking right now.

All of the models are in a tight envelope...but consensus does not imply accuracy.

The GFS is probably too progressive with the pattern, leading to the ridge sliding east, which may be why the GFDL and HWRF are so far north.

Didn't see this posted anywhere, but HPC is not going with the GFS or the Para GFS for their maps:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

So that suggests that whatever is there will probably track to the south end of the model envelope...

My initial $ is on a track through the Florida Straights or extreme Southern Florida.

The big question is...how much development happens between now and then?

I think the upper environment is going to get more favorable, and the interaction with the upper low could go either way. The dry air around could stop development at times, or the weak ULL could vent it some. It seems like every hurricane has an upper low in the vicinity...

I think Dr. Masters' idea of a 3 in 10 chance of a hurricane is a good place to start until I can did into this more tonight

MW

Thanks Mike! Hope you are able to post your thoughts as this goes along. I hate this is so close and yet we have no concrete ideas as to how much or where yet, other than this general direction or just south. Isn't that true every season though? (hope I got the quote things right - hate it when I have to figure it out! )

[Wx_Warrior]

PARA 96h & 102h

[KWT]

Hmmm looks like the GFS sees weakening into the Gulf, can only imagine there just either be alot of dry air in there or shear increases as the ridge breaks down.

[Ivanhater]

Nogaps shifts east slightly

Miami to Mobile

[rockyman]

FWIW, 18z Canadian-Regional thru 48 hours:

[Ivanhater]

18z HWRF looks like Miami to Mississippi

[djmikey]

Do you guys think the models will have the possibility to shift westward and have invest 97 head toward the LA/TX border?

[KWT]

Those models really do weaken the system in the Gulf, they clearly are seeing something that weakens the system...

[xcool22]

HOT SST Gulf,

[Ikester]

HOT SST Gulf,

SST's aren't everything...it is a minor piece of the overall puzzle. Upper level conditions are FAR more important.

[Ivanhater]

GFDL

SE Florida to NW FLorida

[gatorcane]

GFDL looks to be just north of the Palm Beaches (over Blown_away's area in Jupiter), I still think it has an eastern bias. It was farther up the coast earlier today but the new LLC probably brought it more south.

[Blown Away]

GFDL looks to be just north of the Palm Beaches (over Blown_away's area in Jupiter), I still think it has an eastern bias. It was farther up the coast earlier today but the new LLC probably brought it more south.

LOL Where is the new LLC? I see very little convection near the 18z Best Track area, IMO the convection "bubbling" is farther north? Nogaps a little north and GFDL a little south, the focus is on SFL, if it develops!

[Air Force Met]

GFDL looks to be just north of the Palm Beaches (over Blown_away's area in Jupiter), I still think it has an eastern bias. It was farther up the coast earlier today but the new LLC probably brought it more south.

It does have an eastern bias...especially given the GFS has been decoupling the system. It has been taking the low level vorticity to the east and the mid level vorticity to the west...an obvious foul. This was throwing off the GFS derived models. Now that it is keeping them stacked...you see the shift WAY to the west. Both have shifted about 200 miles to the west. Best guess for me woul be a blend of the EURO, UKMET (at least where I think it is putting it as its really weak) and the GFS...that means somewhere along the Louisiana coast-Mississippi coast.

[Dean4Storms]

Those models really do weaken the system in the Gulf, they clearly are seeing something that weakens the system...

The OP GFS drags the ULL westward across Florida and eventually parks it over LA, basically rides along westward north of the system or NW. If it does set up shop over LA it would likely induce strong SW shear.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[Rainband]

Those models really do weaken the system in the Gulf, they clearly are seeing something that weakens the system...

The OP GFS drags the ULL westward across Florida and eventually parks it over LA, basically rides along westward north of the system or NW. If it does set up shop over LA it would likely induce strong SW shear.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

Good news if that happens and nice catch

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 210027
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0027 UTC WED JUL 21 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20100721 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100721  0000   100721  1200   100722  0000   100722  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    19.8N  68.5W   20.5N  71.3W   21.0N  73.9W   21.2N  76.3W
BAMD    19.8N  68.5W   20.5N  70.4W   21.5N  72.3W   22.7N  74.3W
BAMM    19.8N  68.5W   20.4N  70.7W   21.1N  72.7W   21.9N  74.6W
LBAR    19.8N  68.5W   20.4N  70.6W   21.3N  73.0W   22.0N  75.4W
SHIP        30KTS          37KTS          47KTS          54KTS
DSHP        30KTS          37KTS          47KTS          54KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100723  0000   100724  0000   100725  0000   100726  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    21.6N  78.0W   23.3N  81.1W   25.2N  84.2W   26.8N  87.5W
BAMD    24.0N  76.6W   26.7N  82.3W   30.0N  87.8W   32.7N  90.6W
BAMM    23.0N  76.5W   25.3N  80.7W   27.6N  85.2W   29.4N  88.6W
LBAR    23.0N  77.9W   25.2N  82.9W   27.8N  86.8W   32.3N  89.1W
SHIP        59KTS          66KTS          67KTS          69KTS
DSHP        59KTS          59KTS          62KTS          63KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  19.8N LONCUR =  68.5W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR =   8KT
LATM12 =  19.2N LONM12 =  67.0W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 =   8KT
LATM24 =  18.9N LONM24 =  65.1W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$


[wxman57]

Here's a plot I made of the 18Z models taking out some that won't do well here (BAMs, climo models, NAM). I did include the NOGAPS, though it's often the worst-performing model. It is on the far left of the other guidance, almost. The only one that misses south Florida. Note the 18Z NHC preliminary forecast taking it into Pensacola.

[Ivanhater]

Now that I know the OFCI is the internal NHC track, it is very interesting that you and the NHC have very similar thoughts at this point. HPC is in agreement as well.