ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - MODELS

[dixiebreeze]

Good analysis as always, Mike.

[dixiebreeze]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41046

Pressure falling just slightly, but steadily at Buoy Station 41046 East Bahamas.

[gatorcane]

Though the low-level flow is strong from the east as some will see by stepping outside across Southern FL, the 500MB flow is tilted ESE to WNW. So if Bonnie forms and taps into the 500MB flow it could conceivably hit mainland S. Florida as several models are showing at the moment and drive into FL from a ESE or SE direction.

Here is the flow from the UKMET at 96 hours:

[KWT]

I think at least based on the models there is a risk that it ends up near S.florida. The key issue is though how quickly it strengthens.

[dixiebreeze]

Katrina's path:

http://www.homelandsecurity.org/newjour ... a_path.gif

[fci]

Katrina's path:

http://www.homelandsecurity.org/newjour ... a_path.gif

The WSW and SW jog she took when she approached and crossed South Florida was very irregular.

[Extremeweatherguy]

18z GFS now running.

Looks like a pretty good initialization in terms of vorticity placement:

OPER: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_000l.gif
PARA: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... v_000l.gif

24 hrs:

OPER: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_024l.gif
PARA: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... v_024l.gif

48 hrs:

OPER: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_048l.gif
PARA: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... v_048l.gif

[Stormcenter]

Different time of year and conditions compared to the K storm you are referring to.

Katrina's path:

http://www.homelandsecurity.org/newjour ... a_path.gif

[KWT]

The GFS actually didn't look a bad track on its 12z run in general, but the hurricane models looked a good deal too far north barring rapid strengthening which probasbly won't happen in this solution.

[Wx_Warrior]

won't post them all....but here and there:

gfs para 18z 18h

[Ikester]

18z GFS Shoots the straight:

[Extremeweatherguy]

18z GFS Operational - 66 hrs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_066l.gif
south Florida

[KWT]

Just north of Hispaniola but with what appears to be a lopsided presentation, which fits with what we have so far.

[Bocadude85]

18z GFS Shoots the straight:

Actually that looks like extreme South Florida to me

[Ikester]

[Wx_Warrior]

please post if you are doing OPS or PARA...That is operational (regular) GFS above....

[Wx_Warrior]

18z gfs PARA 54h

[Extremeweatherguy]

18z GFS Parallel - 60hrs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... v_060l.gif
Greatest vorticity into south Florida

[Wx_Warrior]

I see that!!!

[Ikester]

New Orleans???