ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[jlauderdal]

Quote from the PB Post:

Tropical Depression, or Tropical Storm Bonnie, could threaten Florida by Thursday

by Eliot Kleinberg, Tuesday, July 20th, 2010, 2:48 pm

South Florida could be facing down a tropical depression, or Tropical Storm Bonnie, as early as Thursday night, forecasters said today.

http://blogs.palmbeachpost.com/eyeonthe ... -thursday/

I got the Palm Beach Post quote as a text and e-mail alert.

Im getting scared knowing we are "facing down" a TD or even Bonnie

[Scorpion]

Quote from the PB Post:

Tropical Depression, or Tropical Storm Bonnie, could threaten Florida by Thursday

by Eliot Kleinberg, Tuesday, July 20th, 2010, 2:48 pm

South Florida could be facing down a tropical depression, or Tropical Storm Bonnie, as early as Thursday night, forecasters said today.

http://blogs.palmbeachpost.com/eyeonthe ... -thursday/

I got the Palm Beach Post quote as a text and e-mail alert.

Im getting scared knowing we are "facing down" a TD or even Bonnie

Love how PB Post tries to sensationalize everything.

[ROCK]

Remember even the Euro was breaking down the ridge just the same last night as the other models. I see no reason (at this time) to think Texas is plausible. Things could and probably will change though

its not breaking down the ridge in this last run....but it doesnt develope it either...so there is the fly in the ointment....( at this time)....way to cya Ivan...

Which is why I would not say the Euro has been consistent with the Upper air pattern, obviously breaking the ridge down just one run earlier. But you know I have my biases ...See you tonight for the 00Z Euro Rock?

yeah...no conf call tomorrow...so I am in for tonight...just this once...

[Bocadude85]

well the stronger the system the farther north it will likely go.... the models are the weakest take it farther south.. ukmet ,nogaps. models like the HWRF and GFDL are slightly stronger (moderate to strong TS)and farther north and the GFS which is basically in the middle of the models and has a weak TS. so it will be dependent its strength and where exactly the center takes shape..

Ukmet & Nogaps keep 97L tangled with Hispaniola longer which likely results in a weaker system. GFDL & HWRF have 97L pulling away from Hispaniola which may allow more time to strengthen and more time over the Gulfstream as it appraoches Florida?

right... well i am favoring the GFDL and HWRF being that they have a slightly farther north initialization then the other.. and since the likely area of the center to close off will be a good distance away from Hispaniola the weaker solutions that interact with the major islands is not a likely scenario. Also the western extent of the ridge is not that far west and if you look at the flow of the western atlantic a wnw track is very likely which puts "south of florida" having a lower percent chance. wnw from this position is at minimum the miami area it would have to move very close to west for some time for it move south of florida.

I just dont see how this would impact the mainland ..looking at the steering currents says a track south of florida is more likely

[jlauderdal]

Im getting scared knowing we are "facing down" a TD or even Bonnie[/quote]

Love how PB Post tries to sensationalize everything.[/quote]

those tactics are best for channel 7 in miami, they are the real pros...when i think of facing down something it would be more in terms of those mean looking polar bears in my avatar or worse yet an angry spouse


besides, its going south due to that ridging in place so maybe fidel will be facing down the monster known as Bonnie

[KWT]

its not breaking down the ridge in this last run....but it doesnt develope 97L either...so there is the fly in the ointment....( at this time)....way to cya Ivan...

There is a strong weakness to the north, it'll probably mean a puill to the WNW/NW will occur even if the ridge is still in the place for a short while...

I think Texas is possible but unliikely at the moment, but I think central Gulf is possible end game for this system. As for S.Florida, I think far S.Florida and the Keys FWIW, maybe just north of the straits.

[HURAKAN]

Historical

[ROCK]

its not breaking down the ridge in this last run....but it doesnt develope 97L either...so there is the fly in the ointment....( at this time)....way to cya Ivan...

There is a strong weakness to the north, it'll probably mean a puill to the WNW/NW will occur even if the ridge is still in the place...

I think Texas is possible but unliikely at the moment, but I think central Gulf is possible end game for this system. As for S.Florida, I think far S.Florida and the Keys FWIW, maybe just north of the straits.

I am not saying Texas.....however I do take into account a certain model (not to be named) that is the southern outlier right now....

[dixiebreeze]

NRL has pressure for 97L now at 1012, down slightly.

[TTARider]

Hoping this one might shift more southerly and go toward mexico.. but i don't see it.. this is going to be bad for the oil cleanup, for sure....

[Extremeweatherguy]

Remember even the Euro was breaking down the ridge just the same last night as the other models. I see no reason (at this time) to think Texas is plausible. Things could and probably will change though

I agree. I would be extremely surprised if this wound up hitting Texas. Sure, it is definitely possible, but at this time I think Florida and then the northern Gulf coast east of TX has the greatest chance of facing an impact from 97L. The ridge just does not look *that* strong to me (compared to a Dean/Felix ridge for example), and will have periods of weakness ( http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_042l.gif ) that should be adequate enough to keep the system moving on a general WNW course over the next few days. A couple of NW wobbles cannot even be completely ruled out from time to time.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HURAKAN]

NRL has pressure for 97L now at 1012, down slightly.

that was from the 18z best track

[KWT]

Hoping this one might shift more southerly and go toward mexico.. but i don't see it.. this is going to be bad for the oil cleanup, for sure....

Mexico doesn't need it, the border has already had huge flooding, any Tropical system would cause perhaps historic flooding in places...The remaining olil though may well end up being dealt with by 97L down the road.

I can see a risk for Texas down the line given most of the models have underdone the upper high for most of the time recently.

[Bocadude85]

http://img413.imageshack.us/img413/4151/33941917.jpg

Historical

Well by the looks of this map if this system does develop and hit South Florida or go through the Keys it would be the first time in history

[dixiebreeze]

Station 41046 East Bahamas, pressure falling slightly, but steadily:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41046

[petit_bois]

http://img413.imageshack.us/img413/4151/33941917.jpg

Historical

Well by the looks of this map if this system does develop and hit South Florida or go through the Keys it would be the first time in history

recorded history to be exact.

[TTARider]

http://img413.imageshack.us/img413/4151/33941917.jpg

Historical

Well by the looks of this map if this system does develop and hit South Florida or go through the Keys it would be the first time in history

indeed.... of course there is no history of anything until it happens


i have a feeling regardless of track.. i will definately see weather from this one..... maybe just a bit of rain... maybe more ... only time will tell

[HURAKAN]

Can we order the Chris (2006) treatment?

[chzzdekr81]

Remember even the Euro was breaking down the ridge just the same last night as the other models. I see no reason (at this time) to think Texas is plausible. Things could and probably will change though

I agree. I would be extremely surprised if this wound up hitting Texas. Sure, it is definitely possible, but at this time I think Florida and then the northern Gulf coast east of TX has the greatest chance of facing an impact from 97L. The ridge just does not look *that* strong to me (compared to a Dean/Felix ridge for example), and will have periods of weakness ( http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_042l.gif ) that should be adequate enough to keep the system moving on a general WNW course over the next few days. A couple of NW wobbles cannot even be completely ruled out from time to time.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Everyone thought Ike was going for Florida too, but we all know where it ended up making landfall...

[srainhoutx]

Reminder: Please do not duplicate images when quoting posts. Thanks