ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[jlauderdal]

If I had to make a call I'd go for a strong TS into S.Florida right now, the models do seem to be in decent agreement about the broad solution, though the GFDL looks a bit too far north for my liking.

At least the center looks likely to stay north of the islands for now...

Whilst that could happen I think a more southerly solution will pan out in fact any "center" south of key west

[HURAKAN]

Looking more and more organized

[KWT]

Chances of this becoming a hurricane before Florida are relatively low. I wouldnt be surprised to see this go south of Florida to be honest.

Yeah but the Guld doesn't look too bad at the moment looking at the models so its got a decent chance of reaching that strength there IMO. That being said I think 50-55kts into S.Florida would be my personal call.

[Blown Away]

well the stronger the system the farther north it will likely go.... the models are the weakest take it farther south.. ukmet ,nogaps. models like the HWRF and GFDL are slightly stronger (moderate to strong TS)and farther north and the GFS which is basically in the middle of the models and has a weak TS. so it will be dependent its strength and where exactly the center takes shape..

Ukmet & Nogaps tracks keep 97L tangled with Hispaniola longer which likely results in a weaker system. GFDL & HWRF tracks have 97L pulling away from Hispaniola which may allow more time to strengthen and more time over the Gulfstream as it approaches Florida?

[ROCK]

You can count 3 mulitple vortices in this blob....

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html


you can see the one spin off from last night diving sw...there is one north of PR and another north of DR

[Bocadude85]

If I had to make a call I'd go for a strong TS into S.Florida right now, the models do seem to be in decent agreement about the broad solution, though the GFDL looks a bit too far north for my liking.

At least the center looks likely to stay north of the islands for now...

Whilst that could happen I think a more southerly solution will pan out in fact any "center" south of key west

I agree... I say this passes south of the mainland... if you look at climatology you will find that only 4 ts have hit South Florida in the month of July.. and most of those made landfall on the Southwest coast.

[poof121]

Convection building over the area mentioned as a potentially forming LLC:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[HURAKAN]

6:30 hours ago

[ROCK]

97L needs to work the kinks out....you have multiple vortices working against each other...personally the one just a hair north of PR looks to be dominant one......looks like it trying to get organized though...

[fci]

Quote from the PB Post:

Tropical Depression, or Tropical Storm Bonnie, could threaten Florida by Thursday

by Eliot Kleinberg, Tuesday, July 20th, 2010, 2:48 pm

South Florida could be facing down a tropical depression, or Tropical Storm Bonnie, as early as Thursday night, forecasters said today.

http://blogs.palmbeachpost.com/eyeonthe ... -thursday/

I got the Palm Beach Post quote as a text and e-mail alert.

[Aric Dunn]

well the stronger the system the farther north it will likely go.... the models are the weakest take it farther south.. ukmet ,nogaps. models like the HWRF and GFDL are slightly stronger (moderate to strong TS)and farther north and the GFS which is basically in the middle of the models and has a weak TS. so it will be dependent its strength and where exactly the center takes shape..

Ukmet & Nogaps keep 97L tangled with Hispaniola longer which likely results in a weaker system. GFDL & HWRF have 97L pulling away from Hispaniola which may allow more time to strengthen and more time over the Gulfstream as it appraoches Florida?

right... well i am favoring the GFDL and HWRF being that they have a slightly farther north initialization then the other.. and since the likely area of the center to close off will be a good distance away from Hispaniola the weaker solutions that interact with the major islands is not a likely scenario. Also the western extent of the ridge is not that far west and if you look at the flow of the western atlantic a wnw track is very likely which puts "south of florida" having a lower percent chance. wnw from this position is at minimum the miami area it would have to move very close to west for some time for it move south of florida.

[fci]

If I had to make a call I'd go for a strong TS into S.Florida right now, the models do seem to be in decent agreement about the broad solution, though the GFDL looks a bit too far north for my liking.

At least the center looks likely to stay north of the islands for now...

Whilst that could happen I think a more southerly solution will pan out in fact any "center" south of key west

I agree... I say this passes south of the mainland... if you look at climatology you will find that only 4 ts have hit South Florida in the month of July.. and most of those made landfall on the Southwest coast.

I have traditionally been a big proponent of "climatology" but the past few years have shied me away from that stance. Ike was a great example in the past couple of years of one that completely eskewed "climatology" and took a WSW path when South Florida was clearly in the crosshairs.
Having said that, my "default" is to climatology which would say either south of the Keys or a turn off towards NC. However, the models don't say either and the high pressure seems to favor WNW.
Intensity-wise; I'll go with climatology and figure this to be a moderate TS at best (actually at "worst").
Looks like the Florida contingent will soon be flooding the board, given the media which will start to hype real, real soon. And of course the GOM'ers conjecting where the system will go after Florida (if....)

[jasons2k]

If I had to make a call I'd go for a strong TS into S.Florida right now, the models do seem to be in decent agreement about the broad solution, though the GFDL looks a bit too far north for my liking.

At least the center looks likely to stay north of the islands for now...

Whilst that could happen I think a more southerly solution will pan out in fact any "center" south of key west

I have to concur at this point. I just don't buy the northern 'Erin-like' solution being depicted by the GFS and its cousins. I would look at the ridge placement on the Euro for guidance. It has been consistent this season so far and I see no reason to not trust it now. Remember it held onto the southern solutions for Alex while the GFDL/HWRF showed NOLA hits? Same with TD#2 as well...it was the southern outlier and it was correct all along. I'm staying on that train for now.

While it's still very early, my initial call on this system is through the FL Straights, south of Key West and continuing W/WNW into the southern Gulf. Then the question becomes how long/strong will the ridge hold? A lot can and will change before then, but I am increasingly concerned today that this could indeed be a Mid-Upper Texas coast storm. For me, scary as it is, it looks like the most plausible scenario. I just don't see how this will plow north into that ridge so quickly and head to, say, Panama City. I would look for the rest of the models to shift west over time with 97L.

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[tolakram]

30 frame loop, speed it up. http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30

I'm looking above PR and Sanibel says DR, I should have listened.

Anyway you can see, I think, the formation just before or right as convection fires. Look at the cloud motion pause and the shift to an eastward motion.

[HURAKAN]

MIAMI NWS:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
430 PM EDT TUE JUL 20 2010

...DANGEROUS, LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES...
...WATCHING VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE NEAR PUERTO RICO FOR POSSIBLE HEAVY
RAIN/GUSTY WINDS FRI-SAT...

.DISCUSSION...QUIET AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES IN
PLACE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM....WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

ATTENTINON THEN TURNS TO THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE NEAR PUERTO
RICO. NHC IS MONITORING THIS WAVE NEAR FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. IN FACT...THEY INCREASED THE PROBABILITY OF
DEVELOPMENT NEXT 48 HR TO 60%. THIS WAVE NEEDS TO BE CLOSELY
WATCHED AS MOVEMENT WILL CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WEST NORTHWEST
TRACK TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN/GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SOUTH FL IN THE
FRI-SAT TIME FRAME...WITH FOCUS LOOKING LIKE FRIDAY. HAVE
INCLUDED THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. FORECAST DETAILS
WILL BE MORE PINNED DOWN IN THE COMING DAYS (OF COURSE!)...AND ALL
IS DEPENDENT ON WHETHER OR NOT THIS WAVE DEVELOPS. POPS WERE
INCREASED THU NIGHT-SAT ALONG WITH SKY COVER. THE FORECAST FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. STAY TUNED. /GREGORIA

[ROCK]

Jasons...welcome to the EURO Brotherhood.....

[Ivanhater]

Remember even the Euro was breaking down the ridge just the same last night as the other models. I see no reason (at this time) to think Texas is plausible. Things could and probably will change though

[ROCK]

Remember even the Euro was breaking down the ridge just the same last night as the other models. I see no reason (at this time) to think Texas is plausible. Things could and probably will change though

its not breaking down the ridge in this last run....but it doesnt develope 97L either...so there is the fly in the ointment....( at this time)....way to cya Ivan...

[jaxfladude]

I think it would not hurt for me to watch 97L being that I am in the NE Florida area(Jacksonville).
Also for the rest of the season.
Never know when one may pay my area a visit.
Stay safe y'all.

[Ivanhater]

Remember even the Euro was breaking down the ridge just the same last night as the other models. I see no reason (at this time) to think Texas is plausible. Things could and probably will change though

its not breaking down the ridge in this last run....but it doesnt develope it either...so there is the fly in the ointment....( at this time)....way to cya Ivan...

Which is why I would not say the Euro has been consistent with the Upper air pattern, obviously breaking the ridge down just one run earlier. But you know I have my biases ...See you tonight for the 00Z Euro Rock?