ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - MODELS

[gatorcane]

Wow GFDL though the East Coast of FL north of Central FL?? Quite a bit north of the BAMMS and GFS.

Have to question the GFDL though, seems that it has a right-bias this season so far.

[Blown Away]

Wow GFDL though the East Coast of FL north of Central FL?? Quite a bit north of the BAMMS and GFS.

Have to question the GFDL though, seems that it has a right-bias this season so far.

Almost exactly a 1995 Erin track! What is the intensity near FL?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Wow GFDL though the East Coast of FL north of Central FL?? Quite a bit north of the BAMMS and GFS.

Have to question the GFDL though, seems that it has a right-bias this season so far.

Almost exactly a 1995 Erin track! What is the intensity near FL?

The GFDL shows a landfall pressure in the lower 990s with maximum winds at the 900mb level near 79 knots. That would probably equate to a weak hurricane at the surface.

And yes, this GFDL scenario would be very similar to Hurricane Erin in 1995. Not 100% the same, (Erin was a bit stronger than the GFDL pressure depiction and a little further south at landfall), but quite close.

Erin ('95) track: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/67/Erin_1995_track.png/800px-Erin_1995_track.png
Erin ('95) wikipedia page: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Erin_(1995)

[tronbunny]

Wow GFDL though the East Coast of FL north of Central FL?? Quite a bit north of the BAMMS and GFS.

Have to question the GFDL though, seems that it has a right-bias this season so far.

Almost exactly a 1995 Erin track! What is the intensity near FL?

Stop reading my mind.
Still need to find SSTs, SLP data for Erin in 1995-
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.dat

Date: 31 JUL-6 AUG 1995
Hurricane ERIN
ADV LAT LON TIME WIND PR STAT
1 22.30 -73.20 07/31/00Z 45 1004 TROPICAL STORM
2 22.60 -73.60 07/31/06Z 50 1003 TROPICAL STORM
3 22.80 -73.90 07/31/12Z 55 999 TROPICAL STORM
4 23.20 -74.30 07/31/18Z 60 997 TROPICAL STORM
5 23.60 -74.90 08/01/00Z 70 992 HURRICANE-1
6 24.30 -75.70 08/01/06Z 75 988 HURRICANE-1
7 25.50 -76.30 08/01/12Z 75 985 HURRICANE-1
8 26.30 -77.70 08/01/18Z 75 980 HURRICANE-1
9 26.90 -79.00 08/02/00Z 75 982 HURRICANE-1
10 27.70 -80.40 08/02/06Z 75 985 HURRICANE-1
11 28.20 -81.90 08/02/12Z 50 990 TROPICAL STORM
12 28.60 -83.40 08/02/18Z 60 988 TROPICAL STORM
13 28.80 -84.70 08/03/00Z 65 985 HURRICANE-1
14 29.30 -85.70 08/03/06Z 70 979 HURRICANE-1
15 29.80 -86.60 08/03/12Z 80 974 HURRICANE-1
16 30.60 -87.50 08/03/18Z 65 985 HURRICANE-1
17 31.40 -88.50 08/04/00Z 45 997 TROPICAL STORM
18 32.30 -89.10 08/04/06Z 35 1001 TROPICAL STORM
19 33.20 -89.70 08/04/12Z 20 1003 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
20 34.10 -90.20 08/04/18Z 20 1003 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
21 34.80 -90.20 08/05/00Z 20 1003 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
22 35.40 -90.10 08/05/06Z 20 1003 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
23 36.30 -89.80 08/05/12Z 20 1003 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24 37.50 -88.80 08/05/18Z 20 1003 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
25 38.40 -86.80 08/06/00Z 20 1003 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
26 38.70 -84.90 08/06/06Z 20 1005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
27 38.80 -82.00 08/06/12Z 20 1008 TROPICAL DEPRESSION

[jaxfladude]

As of now, I will have to watch this system
Safe safe y'all.

[SunnyThoughts]

I remember Erin here in Pensacola, phewwww scared the crapola out of me..I know it wasn't a very strong hurricane compared to many others, but we hadn't had a real blow here in a very long time...took down so many trees across the roads and on our property. Watching trees bend in half and hearing them "snap" just really made an impact on me. I didn't think the winds would ever stop. Made a vow then and there, that was the last storm I would ride out..especially having kids at the time...and I've kept that vow too.

[sphelps8681]

Does anyone think that it could also pull a 2005 Rita track?

[chzzdekr81]

Does anyone think that it could also pull a 2005 Rita track?

It could, I guess...

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 201827
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1827 UTC TUE JUL 20 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20100720 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100720  1800   100721  0600   100721  1800   100722  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    19.5N  68.2W   20.1N  71.1W   20.6N  73.7W   20.6N  75.9W
BAMD    19.5N  68.2W   20.1N  70.0W   20.7N  71.9W   21.6N  73.8W
BAMM    19.5N  68.2W   20.0N  70.3W   20.6N  72.4W   21.1N  74.1W
LBAR    19.5N  68.2W   19.9N  70.4W   20.6N  73.0W   21.3N  75.5W
SHIP        30KTS          38KTS          48KTS          55KTS
DSHP        30KTS          38KTS          48KTS          55KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100722  1800   100723  1800   100724  1800   100725  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    20.9N  77.6W   22.2N  80.3W   23.8N  83.0W   25.0N  85.6W
BAMD    22.6N  75.7W   24.5N  80.1W   26.1N  85.0W   27.4N  89.3W
BAMM    22.0N  75.8W   23.8N  79.0W   25.1N  83.0W   26.1N  86.6W
LBAR    22.2N  78.0W   24.6N  83.1W   27.2N  86.9W   30.0N  88.6W
SHIP        61KTS          67KTS          69KTS          68KTS
DSHP        61KTS          54KTS          54KTS          41KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  19.5N LONCUR =  68.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  10KT
LATM12 =  19.0N LONM12 =  66.2W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 =  10KT
LATM24 =  18.8N LONM24 =  64.0W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[KFDM Meteorologist]

12 Z EURO has weak reflection near TX/LA Border at 108 Hours.

[jasons2k]

Hmm is right

I would trust the Euro's handling on the ridge strength moreso than the GFS and its cousins. 97L certainly has my attention...

[AdamFirst]

Since when does one model discount 5 or 6 others?

Just my curious observation.

[ROCK]

Hmm is right

I would trust the Euro's handling on the ridge strength moreso than the GFS and its cousins. 97L certainly has my attention...

the EURO handles longer term ridging fairly well IMO....it sniffed out Ike way before any other model in 08.....BAMMS have straightened out... no longer a bend in the long term....

again its July..hate to keep harping on climo but any ridging this time of year doesnt break down as much or as fast before building back. Unless you have some wicked cold front in July make its way into central FL......JMO or course....

[ROCK]

Since when does one model discount 5 or 6 others?

Just my curious observation.

it doesnt but one cannot discount the EURO.. .I can show you every model 6 days out with Ike that pointed to EC, FL when the EURO was saying N MEX....we are not saying its a trend but you cannot overlook it....

[MWatkins]

12 Z EURO has weak reflection near TX/LA Border at 108 Hours.

Yep. Although there isn't much to track in the Euro. I don't see anything showing up at 850mb

MW

[Patrick99]

Hmm is right

I would trust the Euro's handling on the ridge strength moreso than the GFS and its cousins. 97L certainly has my attention...

the EURO handles longer term ridging fairly well IMO....it sniffed out Ike way before any other model in 08.....BAMMS have straightened out... no longer a bend in the long term....

again its July..hate to keep harping on climo but any ridging this time of year doesnt break down as much or as fast before building back. Unless you have some wicked cold front in July make its way into central FL......JMO or course....

I think I agree with this. Very strong easterly flow in SFL right now.....I can see this just blowing by into Cuba, or running the FL Straits ala Rita.

[Nimbus]

12 Z EURO has weak reflection near TX/LA Border at 108 Hours.

I thought that might be 98L thanks for clarifying.

[Ivanhater]

12 Z EURO has weak reflection near TX/LA Border at 108 Hours.

It's pretty obvious the Euro has the same Upper air pattern as the rest of the globals. If it were stronger on the Euro, it would fit quite well with the other models.

And we all know no model is that great on intensity.



But we all know things change, and probably will

[cycloneye]

And Ivan,that is your wave emerging Africa,but is off topic.

[Ivanhater]

18z Dynamical