ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[Decomdoug]

We could really use the rain up here in Port St. Lucie. Other than a few showers over the past 6 weeks we have had very little in the way of substantial rain. Lawn looks more like straw than anything else.

[Brent]

Hey peeps do you think we could have a TD tonight?

I'm thinking tomorrow afternoon when recon goes out.

[Gustywind]

Hey peeps do you think we could have a TD tonight?

I don't think so. Definitely in the next 48 hours though.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Thanks my friend, i was doubtfull about too, but that's always pleasure to have the opinion of some posters...
Gustywind

[Gustywind]

Hey peeps do you think we could have a TD tonight?

I'm thinking tomorrow afternoon when recon goes out.

yeah thanks 24H at least seems highly reasonnable.

[vbhoutex]

I have a flight out to Chicago on Thursday afternoon. Anyone know the rules as to whether or not the airlines fly if we are under a Hurricane Watch? I know they won't fly under a Warning right? I am not sure what to do. I guess I should wait until tomorrow to see if in fact it forms right?

Not positive about the rules except that they won't fly when winds are above a certain threshold which I think is low TS strength. Best bet is to contact the airline and ask what their rules are.

[Gustywind]

Of topic the thunder is rumbling pretty loudly here in my area... that was so noisy!

[Ikester]

I have a flight out to Chicago on Thursday afternoon. Anyone know the rules as to whether or not the airlines fly if we are under a Hurricane Watch? I know they won't fly under a Warning right? I am not sure what to do. I guess I should wait until tomorrow to see if in fact it forms right?

Flights should operate as normal as long as conditions are safe. They will fly even if a watch or warning is issued. During Ike, some opted to fly out as a means to evacuate.

[Gustywind]

LATEST

[Stormcenter]

Don't get too excited. They (NHC) had that disturbance in the GOM a couple of weeks ago at 60% and then it was down to 10% in a matter of hours.

But seriously IMO 97L seems to be getting better organized and does have potential. As to where it goes if it does develop well only you know who knows that. No it's not Bastardi.

[antonlsu]

This storm looks like it is capable to explode

[Blown Away]

What is the most recent position of this low?

[petit_bois]

Still in a high sheer invironment... JMHO but I'm not looking for development... if any... until Late thursday or Friday with the environment is forcast to be more favorable.

[chzzdekr81]

Don't get too excited. They (NHC) had that disturbance in the GOM a couple of weeks ago at 60% and then it was down to 10% in a matter of hours.

But seriously IMO 97L seems to be getting better organized and does have potential. As to where it goes if it does develop well only you know who knows that. No it's not Bastardi.

That disturbance (95L) was making landfall when they brought the percentage down. 95L and 97L are completely different systems.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 97, 2010072018, , BEST, 0, 195N, 682W, 30, 1012

[HURAKAN]

Best Track

[HURAKAN]

Latest vorticity

[Gustywind]

LATEST

[RL3AO]

A just over 50/50 chance of a depression in 48 hours really isn't saying much. Its probably right. Personally, I'd give it closer to a 70% chance of being a TD in two days, but I'd give it 10% for the next 24 hours.

[hurricaneCW]

It's looking a lot better today despite heavy shear. If the shear is able to slacken, we could see some rapid development.