ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - MODELS

[Ivanhater]

Operational is further west than last night. Showing Extreme South Florida. Maybe the trend is not curving up the east coast

[Ivanhater]

Operational GFS is back to a central Gulf coast, But in a weakened state

[petit_bois]

(If you live in Florida, especially near the coast, you should already be well prepared for the season. There has been plenty of warning of an active season.) 60-70 hours is plenty of time for something to get going, if conditions are favorable, such as low shear and warm waters. Under ideal conditions, storms can very raidly get their act together. We saw Charlie go from a weak Cat 1 to strong Cat 4 in an overnight. Of course, there was already a strong core developed as it came off of Cuba, but once that core is there, a system can rapidly ramp up. If this can get a core established by tomorrow night, it could easily get to a low CAT 1 by the weekend,

if you live anywhere near the coast in the atlantic basin.... you should already be well prepared for the season.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

the path it takes over southern florida, if that is the path it takes, will be critical in whether it loses any strength at all, or can actually increase in strength, as it traverses the swampland. Didn't Wilma or Katrina strengthen as they passed over?
It wouldn't be good to pass over and then head up the west coast and then hit the panhandle. That would be one of those bad scenarios for a huge populous. -especially if this continues to be a very slow mover.
yet a storm getting stronger and moving further out into the gulf and then heading norht may be even worse due to the oil factor and throwing it all up on the northern gulf coast, along with a bad storm surge potential.
hmmm...not liking Bonnie already. If a no-formation or total recurve isn't an option, it would be best if this hit in south florida and then rambled right up through the penninsula, staying out of the water entirely! Do any of the models give that scenario??

[Extremeweatherguy]

12z run of the Operational and Para GFS...

78 hrs, 850mb vorticity:

PARA


OPERATIONAL


Both show the center of greatest vorticity moving into southern/central Florida.

[xcool22]

Everything is up in the air right now models.

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian out to 60 hours

Approaching Miami area

[Ivanhater]

12z Nogaps Going through extreme south Florida

[Ivanhater]

Both Nogaps and Canadian exiting Florida's extreme Southwest coast

[Ivanhater]

Nogaps looks like Mississippi again

[cycloneye]

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1232 PM EDT TUE JUL 20 2010



TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING NEAR THE GREAT ANTILLES/FLORIDA
STRAITS TOWARDS THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...PREFERENCE FOR A SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE 12Z NAM
THE NAM HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY QUICKER/WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER
ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE GFS HAS TRENDED STRONGER ALOFT/MORE
NORTHERLY WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER ITS PAST DAY OF
RUNS. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED SOUTHWEST/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM
OVER ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS. WHEN COMPARING THE
GUIDANCE...THE 12Z NAM IS THE QUICKEST...THE 00Z CANADIAN THE MOST
DEVELOPED...AND THE 06Z GFS THE SLOWEST. THE 16Z CONFERENCE CALL
BETWEEN NHC AND THE HPC MEDIUM RANGE DESK FAVORED SOMETHING CLOSE
TO THE 12Z NAM SOLUTION...WHICH WILL BE PREFERRED BY DEFAULT.

[rockyman]

Canadian--near New Orleans, from the ESE (!)

[Bocadude85]

Well looking at the models would leave one to believe that whatever comes of this tropical wave will come close to south florida in the next few days

[jenmrk]

Nogaps looks like Mississippi again

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/dy ... oplant.gif

Theses NHC discussions are confusing, normally I can understand them but for some reason I am having trouble with this system, on weatherunderground they all look to be coming up towards us or near us , you all always say 5 days out and a few consistant runs will give us an idea. I have not been following this until today so where do we stand if you could guess.

[rockyman]

The models have been fairly consistent (IMHO)...with a track toward south Florida, and then either into the Gulf or up the Florida Peninsula. While all areas are still in play, it's my opinion that the TX/LA state line up through the NE coast of Florida are under the most danger of a mainland strike. I think Texas and the SE Coast (GA/SC/NC) have slightly less risk at this time.

[Bocadude85]

It is interesting to note that only 4 tropical storms and no hurricanes have made landfall in the month of July in South Florida.

[tronbunny]

In no way whatsoever am I an expert, but from the HPC discussion, we don't have 5 days on the FL peninsula to prepare for a storm. (notice I did not say hurricane)
From everything I'm seeing, there will be a So Fl weather event Friday.

Some models soften the ridge, while others keep it in place.
Both scenarios bring lots of rain and some weather to the FL/AL border and FL west coast in 4 days. (ref: Jul 20, 0600z HWRF 96hr)
Since winds in low pressure systems circulate ccw, this could push oil away from the FL coast

[jenmrk]

In no way whatsoever am I an expert, but from the HPC discussion, we don't have 5 days on the FL peninsula to prepare for a storm. (notice I did not say hurricane)

From everything I'm seeing, there will be a So Fl weather event Friday.

Some models soften the ridge, while others keep it in place.
Both scenarios bring lots of rain and some weather to the FL/AL border and FL west coast in 4 days. (ref: Jul 20, 0600z HWRF 96hr)
Since winds in low pressure systems circulate ccw, this could push oil away from the FL coast

I wish you all in SF the best with this, being in Pensacola I was looking at what happens further down the road. as far as the oil we are a few days out from a large oil slick from what I have heard so that is on my mind also.

[Nimbus]

They will usually have a good track 48 hours before landfall. You need that much warning to evacuate if its a hurricane. Although 97L appears to be having shear and land interaction issues at the moment it could intensify before landfall.

For example that TUTT to the west of the system could easily weaken or migrate to a position that would ventilate the system rather than impede the structure. If you are a pro in charge of making decisions at the NHC you can drive yourself nuts worrying about RI scenario's.

Hopefully this won't be one of those storms where there is a major change in the synoptic reasoning the last day before landfall.

[Extremeweatherguy]

12z GFDL run:





landfall shown near Cape Canaveral with a pressure in the low 990s.

12z HWRF run:





landfall shown near West Palm Beach with a pressure in the upper 980s.