ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[SFLcane]

The ill-defined center is over land over Hispaniola.

[floridasun78]

ok message to 97l get act togther or go poof before storm2k go nut i see few downcast 97l i see other upcast let one know

[tolakram]

From the loop I recently posted.



Notice some lower level clouds moving towards the east. Also note two stations of questionable quality on the west side of PR reporting west and SW winds. /shrug

[Bocadude85]

It does look like some banding may be trying to form.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-avn.html

[x-y-no]

It's my impression so far that that product doesn't bear much relation to reality, at least with respect to developing waves ...

Is there any ground observation support at all for all those west winds across two thirds of Puerto Rico? I haven't seen it.

[tolakram]

Current radar loop (saved)



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[cycloneye]

Is there any ground observation support at all for all those west winds across two thirds of Puerto Rico? I haven't seen it.

Jan,I am here where the action is and so far in all the observations I have seen, there are no west winds reported so far until this hour.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=observations01

[gatorcane]

I would think NHC is going to increase the chances of development for the next TWO at 2pm EST. What does everybody think?

[Bocadude85]

I would think NHC is going to increase the chances of development for the next TWO at 2pm EST. What does everybody think?

I think they will keep it at 40%

[Blown Away]

Is there any ground observation support at all for all those west winds across two thirds of Puerto Rico? I haven't seen it.

Jan,I am here where the action is and so far in all the observations I have seen, there are no west winds reported so far until this hour.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=observations01

Cycloneye, I told you earlier all you had to do is go outside to find the LLC. It would have saved us all this drama.

[SFLcane]

I would think NHC is going to increase the chances of development for the next TWO at 2pm EST. What does everybody think?

There are clearly in my view signs of banding taking shape north of were a possible low level circulation might be trying to develope. I say 50 percent at 2pm.

[Vortmax1]

I would think NHC is going to increase the chances of development for the next TWO at 2pm EST. What does everybody think?

I would "like" for it to be left at 40%.
They might go to 50% though...it really depends on who is writing it up.

[Aric Dunn]

So here we are at the moment where the real speculation starts with a llc forming ... but at this point the only hint of anything trying to develop is a change it the surface wind flow. clearly from satellite and radar we have a curved wind field from east of PR bending west north of PR. with relatively light winds in the MONA passage and the NE coast of Hispaniola. so what does this mean.. well the strong winds north of PR and the light winds near to PR and Hispaniola are possibly a precursor to a surface circ trying to form... right now however it is nothing significant and needs about another 24hrs to really get a surface circ going.

circle is area of light winds... note: the curved line is just outline of the convection on radar the wind field is similar but not that sharp.

[floridasun78]

let see how it look at 1pm that be hour before new outlook come out

[Blown Away]

We are seeing convection wrapping around the NW side of the circulation for the first time, sign of a developing system and a weakening ULL.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I would think they will bump it up, since that % gives the probability of development over the next 48 hours. 2 days gives a lot of time to get going, especially since it looks like it is now starting to get itself wound up a little with that banding feature trying to develop.

[Blown Away]

Aric, you have to give it a little time. Only this morning has convection begun building on the N side of the broad circulation and if the trend continues the convection will continue building along the west side shortly.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, you have to give it a little time. Only this morning has convection begun building on the N side of the broad circulation and if the trend continues the convection will continue building along the west side shortly.

well time is exactly what I said ....

[Aric Dunn]

latest vorticity has increased quite a bit..

[cycloneye]

Aric, light winds in San Juan.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TJSJ.html

Code: Select all

Current Weather Conditions:
San Juan, Luis Munoz Marin International Airport, PR, United States 
(TJSJ) 18-27N 066-00W 

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Conditions at  Jul 20, 2010 - 11:56 AM EDTJul 20, 2010 - 10:56 AM CDTJul 20, 2010 - 09:56 AM MDTJul 20, 2010 - 08:56 AM PDTJul 20, 2010 - 07:56 AM ADTJul 20, 2010 - 06:56 AM HDT
2010.07.20 1556 UTC 
Wind  from the ESE (110 degrees) at 6 MPH (5 KT)