Wednesday - 91L Update

Guest · #1 Postby **Guest** » Wed Aug 13, 2003 6:02 am

91L doesn't look that impressive on normal sats this morning. Maybe the experts can reply with different informatnion. But with my untrained eye - I don't think we will see TD8 today.

#2 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Aug 13, 2003 6:21 am

Your untrained eye is good, ticka. See my long post to "Let's take a deep breath" thread for 3 paragraphs of my thoughts. Definitely no TD for 24-36 hours - until it moves into he Gulf. Maybe no recon today, but I'd like to see a visible satellite image first to see what the surface looks like. Hmm, our server has the first visible shot up, showing the MLC evident near 25N/75W - closer to yeserday's LLC.

This thing is in no big hurry to do anything!

Steve H. · #3 Postby **Steve H.** » Wed Aug 13, 2003 6:38 am

Now that we've dismissed the wave, does anyone have access to the Atlantic GFS beyond 120 hours? Want to see if it still shows the low developing off the CV. I got it to 120 hours, but that's as far as it goes. 120 hours looks like it spins fish way out there, but not sure if the ridge rebuilds. Maybe we'll see some normal system develop in the next week :roll:

Cheers!!

#4 Postby **bfez1** » Wed Aug 13, 2003 8:04 am

Local met here this morning said possible development when it enters the GOM and is expected to stay way south of New Orleans and go into Mexico. Of course, nothing is written in stone as we all know but that is the way it looks as of right now. Needs to be watched but certainly nothing to lose sleep over.

mf_dolphin · #5 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Wed Aug 13, 2003 8:25 am

Convection has persisted overnight and even consolidated a bit in the SW. The first looks at visible aren't very impressive to my untrained eye. I see no real evidence of rotation around the big convection centers. There's still plenty of time for something to develop though, especially when this reaches the GOM. Let's not write this off just yet. :-)

Guest · #6 Postby **Guest** » Wed Aug 13, 2003 8:35 am

I'm not writing it off. And its not dead yet. But it has to track over Florida or the keys and survive into the GOM. I think once again - everyone had such high expectations and once again they failed to materialize.

Once it hits the GOM - maybe something will happen - but once again its suppose to be a TACO storm.

Rainband · #7 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Aug 13, 2003 8:36 am

Looks like a run of the mill wave!!! NEXT!!! :lol:

The convection in the GOM is interesting though..since it's about due south of where the GFS placed a system friday!!! :o

#8 Postby **vbhoutex** » Wed Aug 13, 2003 10:19 am

Rainband wrote:Looks like a run of the mill wave!!! NEXT!!! The convection in the GOM is interesting though..since it's about due south of where the GFS placed a system friday!!! :o

Just took a look at the situation in the GOM, cloudwise with the loops, didn't look at anything else like bouys. Don't see anything to suggest any development, but LA and SE TX need to be watching this for possible heavy rains later today or tonight. The ULL over TX is moving W and will open the door for and help pull this disturbance more NW than N imo. Good eye Rainband. The rest of us are so concentrated elsewhere we were completly ignoring the GOM except for future possibilities.

ColdFront77 · #9 Postby **ColdFront77** » Wed Aug 13, 2003 4:17 pm

As of this morning and afternon, the upper level winds in the western Gulf of Mexico are not condusive for tropical development.

Wednesday - 91L Update

Wednesday - 91L Update

No TD

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