ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[rockyman]

Based on best track, the center would be in that little "dent" in the cold cloudtops:

[HURAKAN]

Best Track

[Blown Away]

I said yesterday this reminded me of Erin.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Strong 925mb vorticity northwest of Puerto Rico.

[SFLcane]

Rotation pretty evident in puerto rico radar...

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[canes04]

Here we go!!

It took longer than I thought to develop, that ULL was the cause for the delay. It appears to becoming better organized this morning.
FLA and GOM'ers need to watch this one carefully.

Call me crazy, but I still believe this has the potential down the road to become our first major.

[gatorcane]

Anybody thinks NHC will give this a code red by the end of the day today? If not when?

I think it is on the way to code RED folks....

[HURAKAN]

Radar with storm tracks

[rockyman]

Watching the visible loops, the strongest spin DOES appear to be near the NE coast of Dominican Republic (consistent with vorticity maps just posted).

[wzrgirl1]

Anybody thinks NHC will give this a code red by the end of the day today? If not when?

Yes gator I do. Seems as if a lot of factors are coming into play as far as development goes. Don't think they want to raise the percentage too quick to frighten people, but there is plenty of ocean for the center to go through, and man are those waters warm.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Anybody thinks NHC will give this a code red by the end of the day today? If not when?

I think it is on the way to code RED folks....

If it can develop an area of low pressure the NHC may give it red shading at 8PM EDT the earliest. Tomorrow if Recon does investigate we might, just might have TD #3. Of course, just my opinion.

[Comanche]

For everyone that was so bullish the euro models over the GFS, not one of the 50 member euro ensemble develops it. Does this mean everyone is going to become GFS lubbers?

[cycloneye]

IMO,at 2 PM they may raise the % to 50 and by 8 PM to 60%. But it all depends on how the system evolves during the day.

[rockyman]

I think the availability of Puerto Rico radar data (and the lack of radar from Hispaniola, and the lack until recently of visible loops) has skewed perceptions, making some of us think the center might be to the southeast or northeast of Puerto Rico. As the day wears on, I think it'll become clear that the center is forming closer to the wave axis near Hispaniola. What do y'all think?

[MiamiHurricanes10]

IMO,at 2 PM they may raise the % to 50 and by 8 PM to 60%. But it all depends on how the system evolves during the day.

Yep, same here.

[SFLcane]

[hurricaneCW]

For everyone that was so bullish the euro models over the GFS, not one of the 50 member euro ensemble develops it. Does this mean everyone is going to become GFS lubbers?

Why does everyone think the Euro is god. It can be wrong sometimes. Other models can be right. I don't think the EURO has a clue and the only systems it does develop are distinctly strong systems that are guaranteed to form.

[cycloneye]

This is the 12z sounding from San Juan that shows the circulation between 600-700mbs. See right side for the barb turnings at those heights.

[hurricaneCW]

I won't bother with 97L until Thursday. Right now there is nearly 30 knots of wind shear by it due to that stationary TUTT/ULL that's been there for over a month.