ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - MODELS

[Wx_Warrior]

Models may not be 100% reliable at this point but some are agreeing on certain upper air patterns & areas of landing interest...

[Ivanhater]

Even the UKMET is showing development..out to 72 hours so far

[Ivanhater]

00z Euro rolling...48 hours

[Ivanhater]

96 hours



120 hours

[Wx_Warrior]

weakens it big time....well, we have some going up the EC & have'em all over tha board.

[Ivanhater]

If we have an organized system going into the Gulf (which is becoming more likely) I don't see what would really cause weakening. Most of the modeling shows strengthening once in the Gulf...Ships being the most aggressive to a cat 2

[Wx_Warrior]

Head scratcher here too....i've seen as far west as Central La to East Coast thus far....

[Ivanhater]

Well the Upper air pattern on the Euro is similar to the GFS and other modeling..open door on the Central Gulf coast if a stronger storm were to enter to Gulf

120 hours

[Wx_Warrior]

Let's try it again Tuesday Ivan....

[Ivanhater]

Let's try it again Tuesday Ivan....

I'll be here

[brunota2003]

At least we know the models are in fairly close agreement on the potential track and upper air forecasts, if something develops.

[KWT]

Well the usual model disagreement is occuring and the models flip into thier usual outtings, with the UKMO the most westerly whilst the GFS is more northerly then the rest.

The GFS is more agressive with development in the first 48hrs which probably is why we see it go further north.

[Texas2Florida]

CMC strengthens it and sends it into South Florida and across...

[KWT]

I'm not a Euro Hugger but I do find its solution more likely to come off at the moment then the GFS idea of it going up the east coast...esp given the models have tended to badly underestimate the subtropical ridge belt this year so far.

[canes101]

Models in TOTAL agreement this morning

[KyleEverett]

Well given that the CMC, UK, and Euro all favor the middle of that spread, I'd say there's more agreement than what that picture shows.

[ronjon]

Path open for the north-central or northeast gulf coast. The 06Z GFS trended a little westward (over FL peninsula) vs off the east coast from the 00Z run. Biggest difference I see between the CMC, NOGAPs, UKMET versus the GFS is the speed of the system. GFS is 12-18 hours slower which allows the storm to turn northward at a more eastern location.

[Stratosphere747]

HWRF is running again after a break between runs yesterday. Intensity could be considered suspect across Florida -

[rockyman]

HWRF:

[Stratosphere747]

Hr 120 -