ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[boca]

Makes sense didn't think about using the San Juan radarThanks. LOL

[HURAKAN]

Best Track

[bvigal]

Wow! See that small (red) thunderstorm that just moved SSW over Culebra? I got up to take my medicin and heard thunder getting louder from the west, so turned on the radar to see how far away. That's 47 miles from me!

[knotimpaired]

ALL HELL JUST BROKE LOOSE

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[ROCK]

I am not looking at the MLC but closer down towards PR on the SE side.....convection has diminished around the MLC tonight....

[Brent]

ABNT20 KNHC 200549
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE JUL 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN WATERS. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE AREA...RECENT UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE
SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40
MPH COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...EASTERN
CUBA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF MORE THAN 5
INCHES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[chzzdekr81]

Code Orange

[Ivanhater]

Updated Title...

Code orange!

[Ivanhater]

[Ivanhater]

Station FRDP4 - 9753216 - Fajardo, PR
Wind Direction (WDIR): WNW ( 290 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 2.9 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 6.0 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.97 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.06 in ( Falling )

[poof121]

Station FRDP4 - 9753216 - Fajardo, PR
Wind Direction (WDIR): WNW ( 290 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 2.9 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 6.0 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.97 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.06 in ( Falling )

I noticed that yesterday afternoon. I think it's just local effects.

[Ivanhater]

Station FRDP4 - 9753216 - Fajardo, PR
Wind Direction (WDIR): WNW ( 290 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 2.9 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 6.0 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.97 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.06 in ( Falling )

I noticed that yesterday afternoon. I think it's just local effects.

Could be sense the winds are not very strong but something to watch for...

[poof121]

Station FRDP4 - 9753216 - Fajardo, PR
Wind Direction (WDIR): WNW ( 290 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 2.9 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 6.0 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.97 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.06 in ( Falling )

I noticed that yesterday afternoon. I think it's just local effects.

Could be sense the winds are not very strong but something to watch for...

Another thing to look at is that the winds turned by easterly when a storm passed, but switched back afterwards. I don't remember ever seeing that before, but you're probably right. I was thinking that the winds dying down like that might be a precursor to some kind of circ developing.

[GulfHills]

Would someone explain what code orange or yellow means?

[Ivanhater]

Would someone explain what code orange or yellow means?

When you see the NHC tropical outlook posted, they give a percentage for develoment

0-less than 30 percent =Yellow

30 to less than 60 percent= Orange

60 and above =Red

[tailgater]

A little more vorticity at the 850mb level.

[canes101]

Would someone explain what code orange or yellow means?

When you see the NHC tropical outlook posted, they give a percentage for develoment

0-less than 30 percent =Yellow

30 to less than 60 percent= Orange

60 and above =Red

Correct.. But its just the chances of development in the next 48 hours.. Not chances of it ever developing

[KWT]

Looks like its barely moved overnight, either that or the whole lot keeps relocating back eastwards...

vorticity has improved quite a bit at least.

[Vortmax1]

Looks like its barely moved overnight

That's what I was thinking.
Here's where they have it now...over Hispaniola:

[xironman]

Keep getting mid level spins in the thunderstorm complexes, but they don't have staying power. Now it looks like one is to the SE or PR.