ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - MODELS

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Ivanhater
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#141 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jul 19, 2010 11:21 pm

Yeah Extreme. That is the most interesting thing from tonight. Both the Op and Para develop this in JUST 48 hours. The Operational never really cared for this before (shocking :lol: )

Development chances ticked up like wxman57 alluded to.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#142 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jul 19, 2010 11:48 pm

00z Nogaps jumps on board...models seeing something tonight

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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#143 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jul 19, 2010 11:53 pm

00z Canadian
Se Florida

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Waiting for the rest to come out
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#144 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jul 19, 2010 11:58 pm

Then to Pensacola

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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#145 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jul 19, 2010 11:59 pm

Nogaps into Mississippi

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xcool22

#146 Postby xcool22 » Tue Jul 20, 2010 12:01 am

MODELS HAVE NO CLUE RIGHT NOW WHERE GO AT ...IMO
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#147 Postby LaBreeze » Tue Jul 20, 2010 12:02 am

How much confidence is out there that this ridge is going to break down? Any belief that the ridge will hold its strength and position? Thoughts ~~ :?:
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#148 Postby ROCK » Tue Jul 20, 2010 12:02 am

now we wait for the almighty EURO..... :D
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#149 Postby Vortex » Tue Jul 20, 2010 12:04 am

looks like we certainly have model support now for at least a TS approaching SFL/Florida straits in 3.5/4 days...
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#150 Postby blp » Tue Jul 20, 2010 12:04 am

Ivanhater it is interesting to see that consensus is growing tonight with the models. Most surprising is the GFS which has been very conservative this year on development. If the EURO shows something then its on. Tomorrow will be an interesting day.
Last edited by blp on Tue Jul 20, 2010 12:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#151 Postby Macrocane » Tue Jul 20, 2010 12:05 am

So we have both GFS's, NOGAPS and CMC on board, that means that the chances of development are increasing, let's wait for the Euro if it shows development I would say that it's almost sure that it is going to happen .
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#152 Postby ROCK » Tue Jul 20, 2010 12:05 am

worst case scenario really for the oil areas...if there is still some out that at the surface....would push this muck up inland....
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#153 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Jul 20, 2010 12:07 am

Hopefully the HWRF and GFDL run tonight
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#154 Postby blp » Tue Jul 20, 2010 12:09 am

ROCK wrote:now we wait for the almighty EURO..... :D


You are so right.... hands down the model that everyone looks to now for the final word on development. Amazing how good the EURO has been and funny how it used to be that the GFS was mighty one years back, how things change.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#155 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Tue Jul 20, 2010 12:18 am

The models are actually very tightly clustered in the Central Gulf region...I fail to see how model uncertainty is the issue when in reality, the models are getting a much better picture of the situation and more reliable.

Not saying this far out anything is guaranteed but there is no evidence to support a Mexico to Florida spread, imo.

Edit: If the model's are right on the general 48to 72 hour track, the CMC was hands down the best here.

I believe the CMC is better than the EURO thus far this year.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#156 Postby ROCK » Tue Jul 20, 2010 12:37 am

Weatherfreak000 wrote:The models are actually very tightly clustered in the Central Gulf region...I fail to see how model uncertainty is the issue when in reality, the models are getting a much better picture of the situation and more reliable.

Not saying this far out anything is guaranteed but there is no evidence to support a Mexico to Florida spread, imo.

Edit: If the model's are right on the general 48to 72 hour track, the CMC was hands down the best here.

I believe the CMC is better than the EURO thus far this year.



5-6 days out, no center in which to initialize on and your saying the models are tightly clustered? and they are becoming more reliable....I fail to see the logic there....I will take a MX to FL spread this far out..IMO....
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#157 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Jul 20, 2010 12:40 am

Canadian


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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#158 Postby ROCK » Tue Jul 20, 2010 12:44 am

little more east on this run than prior.....all about timing...it could very well go up the EC of FL and get pushed back into FL from the east...
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#159 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Jul 20, 2010 12:47 am

GFS ENSEMBLE takes it into the Gulf

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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#160 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Jul 20, 2010 12:52 am

I'm sorry but we don't even have an organized system so how can any model be
reliable this far out? IMO right now 97L (if it were to develop) can go anywhere from
Mexico all the way to the East coast. It's not like we haven't seen the models change their tunes
in the past this far out.

Weatherfreak000 wrote:The models are actually very tightly clustered in the Central Gulf region...I fail to see how model uncertainty is the issue when in reality, the models are getting a much better picture of the situation and more reliable.

Not saying this far out anything is guaranteed but there is no evidence to support a Mexico to Florida spread, imo.

Edit: If the model's are right on the general 48to 72 hour track, the CMC was hands down the best here.

I believe the CMC is better than the EURO thus far this year.
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