ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - MODELS

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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#121 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jul 19, 2010 9:54 pm

For those Nam lovers :D

00z Nam, Florida Straits

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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#122 Postby Ikester » Mon Jul 19, 2010 9:55 pm

First, your assuming that the center will traverse the entire length of Cuba. Few storms have done that. Ike is the latest exception to the rule. Second, if the system stays weaker, there is no core to interrupt and there is plenty of energy with this storm. Ike traversed the spine of Cuba just fine. Ike's problem is it never could shed the double eye wall. THANK GOD!
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#123 Postby ROCK » Mon Jul 19, 2010 10:04 pm

Ikester wrote:First, your assuming that the center will traverse the entire length of Cuba. Few storms have done that. Ike is the latest exception to the rule. Second, if the system stays weaker, there is no core to interrupt and there is plenty of energy with this storm. Ike traversed the spine of Cuba just fine. Ike's problem is it never could shed the double eye wall. THANK GOD!



Ike core stayed offshore most of his trip down Cuba and the core missed the mountains on south side....

point I was trying to make was the southern end of Cuba is mountainous and any tranversing that would jack up a low level center..... :D
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#124 Postby ROCK » Mon Jul 19, 2010 10:05 pm

all hail the NAM!! :lol:

but from what we have seen with the dynamics its not that far off at 84hrs...
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#125 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jul 19, 2010 10:27 pm

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#126 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jul 19, 2010 10:37 pm

So, the Florida Strait is safe? LOL
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#127 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jul 19, 2010 10:44 pm

00z Operational GFS is developing this A LOTsooner..this is the Op GFS that usually sees nothing :eek:

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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#128 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jul 19, 2010 10:49 pm

GFS Operational 48 hours

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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#129 Postby bvigal » Mon Jul 19, 2010 10:49 pm

12z CMC and 18z GFS look similar. Both show originating as 1015mb near DR, neither below 1000mb.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#130 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jul 19, 2010 10:52 pm

Quite impressive on the Operational GFS 48 HOURS

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#131 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Jul 19, 2010 10:58 pm

Wow...now let's see if the new GFS follows suite. Interesting the other systems the GFS snoozed on, but this one it tries to blow up almost right away. I will also note that the area it shows the system in is a prime area for development usually.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#132 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jul 19, 2010 10:58 pm

According to both the Operational and Para GFS we will see Bonnie within 48 hours...that's a big change

GFS PARA 48 HOURS

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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#133 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jul 19, 2010 11:08 pm

Para GFS 66 HOURS

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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#134 Postby AtlanticWind » Mon Jul 19, 2010 11:13 pm

Could you post a link to the para gfs?
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#135 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jul 19, 2010 11:14 pm

Lifting north along the East coast of Florida...odd

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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#136 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jul 19, 2010 11:15 pm

AtlanticWind wrote:Could you post a link to the para gfs?



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara/analysis/
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#137 Postby xcool22 » Mon Jul 19, 2010 11:16 pm

gfs I have to throw BOXXS
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#138 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Jul 19, 2010 11:17 pm

Para GFS 90 hours:

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This run looks to bring the system into south/central Florida on Friday. The operational run looks fairly similar.

Overall, the key things to take from tonight's runs of the GFS are the following..

- Both the Operational and Para GFS now show a closed low forming within 48 hours.

- Both the Operational and Para GFS have shifted northward in their expected tracks, perhaps indicating a slightly higher risk for the FL peninsula *if* a tropical cyclone actually forms.


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Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Mon Jul 19, 2010 11:20 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#139 Postby AtlanticWind » Mon Jul 19, 2010 11:19 pm

Ivanhater wrote:
AtlanticWind wrote:Could you post a link to the para gfs?



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara/analysis/


Thanks , it it is odd it takes it north that early ,also weakens it as it moves north
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#140 Postby Scorpion » Mon Jul 19, 2010 11:20 pm

Liking these runs, give us some much needed rain at least.
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