SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[southerngale]

What did you guys do to tick off Mother Nature? lol - I'm in Conroe and The Woodlands for the weekend. Early Friday, Saturday's forecast for Conroe was mostly sunny. Then on Saturday morning, it was partly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain. Well, who opened up the gates? OMG. It went from HOT and sunny to hunkered down under a tiny little roof with a bunch of other people, getting DRENCHED! Checked radar on phone and this red cell was sitting over us and building... phone went off - severe thunderstorm warning and a flood advisory for the area. Wicked heavy rain coming down sideways with a lot of thunder and lightning, and a bunch of us under that 10x10 metal roof because it was too bad to run for it. When it would let up a hair, a few would run for cover and then regret it when it got even harder than before. LOL. It was wild. We were all dripping wet... clothes, hair, purses, wallets, shoes, everything. Ahhhh.... the fun.

Another day outdoors all day on Sunday and the forecast went from 30% to 60% chance of thunderstorms for both Conroe and The Woodlands. First stop in the morning: Academy or somewhere to buy a giant umbrella!

[vbhoutex]

What did you guys do to tick off Mother Nature? lol - I'm in Conroe and The Woodlands for the weekend. Early Friday, Saturday's forecast for Conroe was mostly sunny. Then on Saturday morning, it was partly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain. Well, who opened up the gates? OMG. It went from HOT and sunny to hunkered down under a tiny little roof with a bunch of other people, getting DRENCHED! Checked radar on phone and this red cell was sitting over us and building... phone went off - severe thunderstorm warning and a flood advisory for the area. Wicked heavy rain coming down sideways with a lot of thunder and lightning, and a bunch of us under that 10x10 metal roof because it was too bad to run for it. When it would let up a hair, a few would run for cover and then regret it when it got even harder than before. LOL. It was wild. We were all dripping wet... clothes, hair, purses, wallets, shoes, everything. Ahhhh.... the fun.

Another day outdoors all day on Sunday and the forecast went from 30% to 60% chance of thunderstorms for both Conroe and The Woodlands. First stop in the morning: Academy or somewhere to buy a giant umbrella!

Did you go out in tne rain to get that umbrella? Conroe getting drenched this am too according to radar.

[southerngale]

Not yet. I'm still in The Woodlands, but heading that way in a few minutes. Dang... even the 60% said mainly after 1pm. I guess it's getting started early.

[lebron23]

Rain across mainly the southern part of HGX producing some rainfall rates up to 1.5 inches per hour.

[srainhoutx]

Absolutely pouring in NW Harris County. An easy 2 inches in the past 30-40 minutes.

[vbhoutex]

Absolutely pouring in NW Harris County. An easy 2 inches in the past 30-40 minutes.

I thought so with the way the radar looked. Still nothing here except noise in SB but it looks like we have a line moving in from the SE also so we could see some convergence in this area that is currently between the storms, especially if we have any outflow boundaries.
It looks like it is just sitting on top of you and not moving at all. We are on the SE edge of that cell and it is windy and loud, but no rain yet.

[srainhoutx]

Finally seeing a break in the heavy rain. A lot of CG bit unlike yesterday, very little in the way of gusty winds. Street has flooded for the first time since the April 09 flood event. Pool and both outdoor fish ponds have over flowed (didn't happen with yesterday). One more storm like this one and our neighborhood retention pond will be a problem.

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
215 PM CDT SUN JUL 18 2010

TXC157-201-473-182115-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0058.100718T1915Z-100718T2115Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WALLER TX-HARRIS TX-FORT BEND TX-
215 PM CDT SUN JUL 18 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
WESTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 214 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS FALLING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF HARRIS
COUNTY. RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS STORMS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. STREET FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
233 PM CDT SUN JUL 18 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
WESTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 230 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT FLASH FLOODING WAS LIKELY FROM A THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER NEAR
ADDICKS TO KATY TO MISSION BEND BUILDING SOUTHWEST. OBSERVED RAINFALL
RATES OF NEARLY 2.50" PER HOUR. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

* LOCATIONS IN THE FLOOD WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WADSWORTH...TOWN WEST...SUGAR LAND...STAFFORD...PECAN GROVE...
MISSION BEND...MEADOWS...KATY...JERSEY VILLAGE...FULSHEAR...FIRST
COLONY...BUNKER HILL VILLAGE AND BROOKSHIRE.

[southerngale]

It's stormed on and off. They seem to be slow moving and will just sit over you and build. It finally quit raining on us in Conroe, but it's getting very dark again, so I don't know how long it will last.

[southerngale]

haha... spoke too soon. It just started raining again.

*Edit 20 minutes later: Pouring!!!

[Nikki]

We got some lightning and thunder in my area today with only a few sprinkles, but I sure appreciated the cloud coverage it helped it not be so hot today!

[jasons2k]

I had .31" yesterday and 1.59" today. We sure needed it after a dry week

[srainhoutx]

Here we go again...

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC361-191430-
/O.NEW.KLCH.FF.W.0010.100719T1140Z-100719T1430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
640 AM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WEST ORANGE...VIDOR...ORANGE...
MAURICEVILLE...BRIDGE CITY...
* UNTIL 930 AM CDT

* AT 634 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING NEAR
VIDOR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. RADAR INDICATES THAT NEARLY 3
INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY BETWEEN ORANGE AND VIDOR INCLUDING COW
BAYOU. A SERIES OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO TRAIN OVER THE AREA FOR
AT LEAST ANOTHER ONE TO TWO HOURS AND AN ADDITIONAL 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO PINE
FOREST.


FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
642 AM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

TXC291-191345-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0059.100719T1142Z-100719T1345Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LIBERTY TX-
642 AM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CENTRAL LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
* UNTIL 845 AM CDT

* AT 641 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS FALLING NEAR MOSS HILL.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO THREE INCHES HAVE OCCURRED BETWEEN
TARKINGTON PRARIE AND MOSS HILL. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF AROUND ONE
INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS.

[srainhoutx]

From Nesdis...

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/19/10 1237Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1215Z KUSSELSON
.
LOCATION...SW AND W CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SE TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LCH...HGX...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...EXCESSIVELY HIGH PRECIP WATER AND JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR EXCESSIVE
HVY RAINS IN SPOTS...
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...PERSISTENT EXCESSIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF OVER 130 PERCENT OF NORMAL BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY AT LEAST
3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL COVER THE
SE TEXAS AND AND W LOUISIANA AREA. DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW SURFACE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE MAX NEARBY PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH LIFT AS GOES SOUNDER LIS NOT
VERY UNSTABLE. WITH LIGHT UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALOFT...CELLS DON'T MOVE VERY
MUCH AND WITH SUCH HIGH MOISTURE ARE GIVING 2-2.5"/HR BEFORE DISSIPATING
OR GOING TO LIGHT AFTER AN HOUR OR SO. LATEST CELL CLOUD TOPS HAVE
WARMED CENTERED ON JEFFERSON/ORANGE COUNTY TEXAS AND CAMERON/CALCASIEU
PARISH LA...BUT RESIDUAL LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE FF THREAT
THRU THE MORNING HOURS. WHOLE AREA FROM MONTGOMERY/HARRIS COUNTY TX TO
S NATCHITOCHES/GRANT PARISH TO
WESTERN CAMERON PARISH LA TO GALVESTON COUNTY TX WILL BE VULNERABLE
TO EXCESSIVE RAINS THAT WILL LAST ABOUT AN HR OR SO AND PROVIDE AT
LEAST URBAN TYPE FF POTENTIAL THRU THE MORNING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR...

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1123 AM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

TXC373-407-455-471-191715-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0060.100719T1623Z-100719T1715Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TRINITY TX-POLK TX-WALKER TX-SAN JACINTO TX-
1123 AM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
WESTERN POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHERN TRINITY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN WALKER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1215 PM CDT

* AT 1119 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BETWEEN ONALASKA AND TRINITY...OR ALONG
THE NORTHERN REACHES OF LAKE LIVINGSTON.

THIS RAIN IS PRODUCING 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES...WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY 2 TO 3 INCH PER HOUR ACCUMULATIONS. FLOODING OF LOWER LYING
AREAS IS EITHER OCCURRING...OR WILL BE IMMINENT...GOING INTO NOON
ACROSS THESE AREAS.

[JenBayles]

Yeee haaaawww! Getting pounded here in Bear Creek. Half an inch in 15 minutes.

[srainhoutx]

Same thing a little to your N Jen. Nearing an inch now. This will put my 3 day total to around 5 inches so far from a weak tropical wave.

[vbhoutex]

I have had a few drops during the day after some decent rains overnight. Always been on the edge of them today. I had my 6" of rain 2 weeks ago. Looks like Weds./Thurs. could be wet too.

[Ptarmigan]

Same thing a little to your N Jen. Nearing an inch now. This will put my 3 day total to around 5 inches so far from a weak tropical wave.

What a wet July already. It is likely going to be the top 10 and likely top 5 wettest July on record. I notice that wet July's are more favorable for tropical cyclone landfall. This wet July is more concerning to me. Most major hurricanes that make landfall happen from August to September and one in October, which was in 1949. I found there is a correlation that wetter July's are more likely to see major hurricanes making landfall from August to October. Does wet July mean we are going to see a major hurricane make landfall? Only time can tell. Something to think about.

Climate Division
http://www7.ncdc.noaa.gov/CDO/CDODivisionalSelect.jsp

Top 10 July's
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_iah_top10_july

14.80 1900
14.10 1942
13.53 1943
10.07 1961
10.04 1955
9.94 2007
9.39 1939
8.41 1916
8.17 1959
8.10 1979

Of the top 10 wet July's, 5 out of 10 (1900, 1942, 1961, 2007, and 1979) had a tropical cyclone make landfall on the Upper Texas Coast. 3 of the top 10 wet July's had major hurricanes make landfall in August or September, 1900, 1942, and 1961. 1916 had a major hurricane make landfall on South Texas. 1900 was the Great Galveston Hurricane, 1942 was a major hurricane that made landfall around Palacios. 1961 was Carla. Also prior to the major hurricane in 1942, another hurricane made landfall on the Upper Texas Coast a week before the major one made landfall.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/ushurrlist.htm