Strong wave near Leeward Islands - Is Invest 97L

[Ivanhater]

Here is our wave...already has the hardest thing to get...structure and spin...

[KWT]

What has me interested is the ECM does show a fairly sharp wave coming through this region at the same time as the GFS...I suspect something could have a shot in the Bahamas region or possibly in the E.Gulf like Claudette last summer...we shall see but whilst we have a good 48hrs before anything could possibly get going but it does need watching for sure...

Ivanhater, note it still has a dual circulation thing going on there.

[srainhoutx]

Actually there are two areas to watch. The SW Caribbean still is a 'player in this game'. If we look further E, waves look to progress in the easterly flow with little TUTT influence beyond the current one NW of PR. There is some suggestion of a nice Kelvin wave to enhance the already hyper active Caribbean thunderstorm activity as well. As I stated yesterday, the switch is turning to the on position for the tropics IMO.

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[KWT]

Looks like the southern turning is trying to become the more dominant of the two regions of turning right now, which is interesting as thats the wave right now further away from the SAL and the still present shear.

The only worry I have for this is some of the models overdo the progressive nature of the shear relaxation

[cycloneye]

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
CENTERED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM
CURRENTLY IS PRODUCING VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS COULD BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[KWT]

Yeah seems like a reasonable discussion of whats possible with this system, note the ULL that is really rather strong still is so obvious on that image there, thats going to have to get out of the way if development is going to occue with this in the next 4 days anyway, beyond that and once into the Bahamas region conditions actually aren't too bad.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 180002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2350 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W FROM 7N TO 19N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC TURNING ABOUT THE
WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF ELEVATED VALUES
IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SAHARAN AIR LAYER IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE IS SUPPRESSING
DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING...LEAVING ONLY SCATTERED WEAK TO
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 47W AND 50W.

[Blown Away]

Yeah seems like a reasonable discussion of whats possible with this system, note the ULL that is really rather strong still is so obvious on that image there, thats going to have to get out of the way if development is going to occue with this in the next 4 days anyway, beyond that and once into the Bahamas region conditions actually aren't too bad.

The broad center is just past 50W and is still about 500 miles from the islands. I would expect this wave to slow down from 20kt's as it approaches the TUTT. IMO, this wave will be near PR's longitude in 48 hours and if the system is N or S of the big islands then maybe it has a shot. Seems some of the models are bringing this wave N of PR & DR into the SE Bahamas. Like I said earlier, this wave is at a good latitude to cause trouble if it develops. The broad center has become more defined this afternoon.
I just wish Luis would have stuck with this wave instead of giving up, he would have been a weather genius!

[Gustywind]

Yeah seems like a reasonable discussion of whats possible with this system, note the ULL that is really rather strong still is so obvious on that image there, thats going to have to get out of the way if development is going to occue with this in the next 4 days anyway, beyond that and once into the Bahamas region conditions actually aren't too bad.

The broad center is just past 50W and is still about 500 miles from the islands. I would expect this wave to slow down from 20kt's as it approaches the TUTT. IMO, this wave will be near PR's longitude in 48 hours and if the system is N or S of the big islands then maybe it has a shot. Seems some of the models are bringing this wave N of PR & DR into the SE Bahamas. Like I said earlier, this wave is at a good latitude to cause trouble if it develops. The broad center has become more defined this afternoon.
I just wish Luis would have stuck with this wave instead of giving up, he would have been a weather genius!

KWT you don't know that he's genuis and a SUPERMAN

[Vortex]

latest IR 2 imagery suggests a low-level center may be forming near 14N/48 west which also has the greatest vorticity and an apparent low-level center is becoming better defined. Convection is also developing over the center..

[cycloneye]

Gustywind,it was Blown Away and not KWT. Anyway,I dont want to be the topic of this thread,but the wave is.

[Gustywind]

Sin duda unos de los talentos de la casa... Gracias por su trabajo y su contribucion sobre Storm2K. Felicitaciones Luis
Gustywind

[Gustywind]

Gustywind,it was Blown Away and not KWT. Anyway,I dont want to be the topic of this thread,but the wave is.

Ok excuse me i'm so confused Cycloneye . Just to have fun, i know that this thread is about this wave and will foccus on

[Gustywind]

Latest

[KWT]

latest IR 2 imagery suggests a low-level center may be forming near 14N/48 west which also has the greatest vorticity and an apparent low-level center is becoming better defined. Convection is also developing over the center..

Thats pretty much the area I'm watching as well, I'd expect it to roll on by for a few days yet but conditions do seem likely to improve down the line. Once again later in the season, this one would probably already be on its way.

[Gustywind]

Winds are relaxing ahead of this twave...less than 20 kts in vicinity of the EC.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[Blown Away]

latest IR 2 imagery suggests a low-level center may be forming near 14N/48 west which also has the greatest vorticity and an apparent low-level center is becoming better defined. Convection is also developing over the center..

Thats pretty much the area I'm watching as well, I'd expect it to roll on by for a few days yet but conditions do seem likely to improve down the line. Once again later in the season, this one would probably already be on its way.

I agree, but isn't that convection on the east side of the broad center. IMO, the broad center has crossed 50W and this is definitely the place to watch because convection is building around the circulation. Maybe we will get real lucky and get Invest status!!

[Gustywind]

SAL

[KWT]

Yeah broad circulation does look like its to the west of the convection, though the last Vis imagery of the day did suggest a tightening circulation close to that convection, so thats the area to watch in the short term at least IMO.

[Gustywind]