My attention has definitely shifted from the SW Caribbean to the area around Jamaica, with the incoming tropical wave. MIMIC shows the progression of this wave, as it tracked WSW across the Leeward Islands. Also, notice that the wave is now able to tap deep tropical moisture to the south:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html
The 00Z CMC Shows this vorticity moving up into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and "landfalling" between Pensacola and Mobile.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... city&hour=
The 6Z GFS shows the vorticity moving into the central Gulf, then weakening, possibly moving toward TX/MX:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
The 00Z NOGAPS moves this vorticity toward the TX/MX border:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 72W MOVING W
AT ABOUT 10 KT. THE WAVE EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO NEAR LAKE
MARACAIBO IN WESTERN VENEZUELA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST ONE BETWEEN BUOY 42959 AND THE ABC
ISLANDS. THE WAVE IS ALSO ENHANCING CONVECTION JUST S OF HAITI
AND NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
W CARIBBEAN THIS EARLY TONIGHT.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1047.shtml?
Low level steering:
Low level vorticity:
Wind Shear:
Question. Could the upper low to the north of the area could "mimic" an upper-level high directly over the sytem, providing ventilation?
