Top 5 Hurricane Vulnerable & Overdue Cities

[Texas Snowman]

One case in point: Ceila in 1970 that ripped up Corpus Christi and Port Aransas.

From Wiki:

"Throughout southern Texas, Hurricane Celia killed 15 people, injured 466 others, and caused $453 million (1970 USD; $2.6 billion 2009 USD) in damages. The most severe damage was in Corpus Christi and Aransas Pass, Texas. There, 8,950 homes were destroyed and over 60,000 others were damaged, accounting for $250 million of the total losses. The most severe damage occurred in the streaks of damage. The streaks were not caused by a tornado as no evidence of rotation was found. The swaths of damage were caused by a series of microbursts and downbursts, most of which occurred in a 15 minute span. Survivors of the storm described the downbursts as suddenly rocket shells exploding.[5] However, areas between the streaks suffered surprisingly little damage, mainly ornamental due to debris from the homes nearby. Some of the worst damage was at a trailer camp where several hundred mobile homes were left in mangled ruins, some even stacked on top of each other.[7] A newly constructed shopping center, which was thought to have the finest construction, was left completely destroyed. Damage to most of the structures was mainly roof damage. However, several homes suffered more severe damage or were destroyed. Some homes had their entire roof torn off, leaving only the fixed appliances.."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Celia

[psyclone]

i simply disagree with an argument strategy of emphasizing one hurricane hazard by de-emphasizing another. for most coastal areas, residents can avoid storm surge hazard at their residence by simply purchasing property on higher ground. in many cases this just involves moving a block or 2. i bought on higher ground for this very reason so i certainly have a healthy respect and fear of surge. the threat of extreme winds is not so easy to move away from.

[Texas Snowman]

I agree.

Bottom line to me is that hurricanes kill people - directly by wind or by water; indirectly by such things as heart attacks or health problems or even by taking a bus ride (the people that died in the bus fire on I-45 in Texas who were being evacuated away from Rita).

How a person dies in a hurricane is really a moot point...the point is, they died.

And however that occurred, it is deadly and tragic.

[Florida1118]

i simply disagree with an argument strategy of emphasizing one hurricane hazard by de-emphasizing another. for most coastal areas, residents can avoid storm surge hazard at their residence by simply purchasing property on higher ground. in many cases this just involves moving a block or 2. i bought on higher ground for this very reason so i certainly have a healthy respect and fear of surge. the threat of extreme winds is not so easy to move away from.

As you Know, Pinellas and Hillsborough county's Will both be inundated by water. A Block or 2 will not save any one. Pinellas Would be in to land masses, No longer a county. The islands would no longer be there. The only part of Pinellas that would be above water would Be Pinellas Park in the worst case. up to 25ft of water shouved in the bay would flood all surrounding county's far more than 2 blocks from the coast. Then Polk and Pasco would be torn down by wind. a Cat 3 will make some trees fall, some on houses. I Agree with the Fireing squad statement. Either way, I dont want be here when something happens.

[MGC]

Been to the Tampa area many time....disaster waiting to happen. Tremendous growth over the years....few have experienced a major hurricane.....many think it will not happen there. I hate to think what a large hurricane will do to Tampa. Since it has not been hit in a while, there are plenty of mature trees that will be uprooted. After Katrina we didn't have water or natural gas for several months because the trees damaged water and gas lines. The surge will just wash away anything in its path. Nothing like having a house block your street because it was washed off its slab. But the force of moving water is much greater than Cat-5 winds. Keep that in mind.....MGC

[Florida1118]

Been to the Tampa area many time....disaster waiting to happen. Tremendous growth over the years....few have experienced a major hurricane.....many think it will not happen there. I hate to think what a large hurricane will do to Tampa. Since it has not been hit in a while, there are plenty of mature trees that will be uprooted. After Katrina we didn't have water or natural gas for several months because the trees damaged water and gas lines. The surge will just wash away anything in its path. Nothing like having a house block your street because it was washed off its slab. But the force of moving water is much greater than Cat-5 winds. Keep that in mind.....MGC

Ya, ive seen the Videos and heard the 911 calls. No Dought water has the more power. Ive Got a Couple Trees that are pretty big and old, pretty close to my house. Havent cut them down because a tree expert or whatever you call them said they were in good condtion. A few years ago I would hear peolple talking like, " Hurricanes aren't that bad' and "Im going to have a outdoor party" and other bullcrap like that and I just remember the 911 calls from other people that had "partys" and ended up lost or dead. Very sad that living in an active period and people dont know the dander lurking out there. Anyway, I think if a 3 is coming, ill be out. My house can handle a 4 or so, but surge stats to flood from a lake to the east and the bay to the west, so at a 3 water starts to come to my house from both sides. Well, lets hope this year nothing but fishes come out, but like that will happen.

[stormchazer]

Speaking as a resident that lives close to Tampa, my concern is around the population. Its not that Tampa's population is so large or dense, but because it is a retirement population. There is a large number of older retirees and even elderly who may have a greater degree of difficulty getting to safety.

[gatorcane]

i simply disagree with an argument strategy of emphasizing one hurricane hazard by de-emphasizing another. for most coastal areas, residents can avoid storm surge hazard at their residence by simply purchasing property on higher ground. in many cases this just involves moving a block or 2. i bought on higher ground for this very reason so i certainly have a healthy respect and fear of surge. the threat of extreme winds is not so easy to move away from.

As you Know, Pinellas and Hillsborough county's Will both be inundated by water. A Block or 2 will not save any one. Pinellas Would be in to land masses, No longer a county. The islands would no longer be there. The only part of Pinellas that would be above water would Be Pinellas Park in the worst case. up to 25ft of water shouved in the bay would flood all surrounding county's far more than 2 blocks from the coast. Then Polk and Pasco would be torn down by wind. a Cat 3 will make some trees fall, some on houses. I Agree with the Fireing squad statement. Either way, I dont want be here when something happens.

For the Tampa Bay area, the surge from a major hurricane would be disastrous (there are simulations out there to show what could happen) but believe it or not not all of Pinellas County would be impacted by the surge despite the fact that it is a peninsula. In fact much of the Central and Northern parts of the county are actually tens of feet above sea level even a few blocks from the intercoastal (Central and North County) and I believe Highland Lakes in Palm Harbor (Northern part of the county) is 80ft above sea-level, the highest point in the county. The problem there would obviously be the wind not the surge.

I agree with MGC that it has been so long (1921 I believe?) since a major hurricane has impacted the area so large mature trees that are not hurricane-tolerant exist. In the Tampa Bay area, you can find such trees everywhere due to the typically colder winters they experience than areas further south in Southern FL. Many of those trees would be uprooted and would cause problems to powerlines and surrounding areas causing widespread power outages that could last for many weeks. When Frances came through, though it only had 70mph gusts, caused some pretty extensive power outages.

[Florida1118]

i simply disagree with an argument strategy of emphasizing one hurricane hazard by de-emphasizing another. for most coastal areas, residents can avoid storm surge hazard at their residence by simply purchasing property on higher ground. in many cases this just involves moving a block or 2. i bought on higher ground for this very reason so i certainly have a healthy respect and fear of surge. the threat of extreme winds is not so easy to move away from.

As you Know, Pinellas and Hillsborough county's Will both be inundated by water. A Block or 2 will not save any one. Pinellas Would be in to land masses, No longer a county. The islands would no longer be there. The only part of Pinellas that would be above water would Be Pinellas Park in the worst case. up to 25ft of water shouved in the bay would flood all surrounding county's far more than 2 blocks from the coast. Then Polk and Pasco would be torn down by wind. a Cat 3 will make some trees fall, some on houses. I Agree with the Fireing squad statement. Either way, I dont want be here when something happens.

For the Tampa Bay area, the surge from a major hurricane would be disastrous (there are simulations out there to show what could happen) but believe it or not not all of Pinellas County would be impacted by the surge despite the fact that it is a peninsula. In fact much of the Central and Northern parts of the county are actually tens of feet above sea level even a few blocks from the intercoastal (Central and North County) and I believe Highland Lakes in Palm Harbor (Northern part of the county) is 80ft above sea-level, the highest point in the county. The problem there would obviously be the wind not the surge.

I agree with MGC that it has been so long (1921 I believe?) since a major hurricane has impacted the area so large mature trees that are not hurricane-tolerant exist. In the Tampa Bay area, you can find such trees everywhere due to the typically colder winters they experience than areas further south in Southern FL. Many of those trees would be uprooted and would cause problems to powerlines and surrounding areas causing widespread power outages that could last for many weeks. When Frances came through, though it only had 70mph gusts, caused some pretty extensive power outages.

I Live In the northern part of the county, and it is in a flood zone. The central and part of the southern part of the county is safe from surge, but of course, not wind. I believe the highest point in the county is The Pinellas park area at 110ft. Your right about Frances's Power outages. We lost power for a day or so, Because a tree fell on one somewhere. A few trees fell in my yard too, and they were not small.

[Normandy]

WRT the wind vs water argument, I present you one picture.

http://image3.examiner.com/images/blog/ ... 2000_1.JPG

That is a building that was struck head on by an EF3 tornado in Fort Worth Texas, possessing winds of about 140-160 mph. Mind you that this building experienced these winds for no more than 5 mins or so. That is what Category 4-5 winds can do to buildings. You put that building on the MS coast during Katrina and the first couple floors get flooded. The rest of the building is fine. Stating the surge destroys cities and wind does not is very foolish IMO, considering how anybody that experienced the eyewall of Andrew of Charley likely sustained severe damage.

[mpic]

I don't even want to think about Galveston getting hit again any time soon. I was down there a week ago and they have done an amazing job of bouncing back, but another one this year would wipe them out financially.

[KWT]

I think the problem is Normandy most people don't actually know how powerful wind can be. I see that alot of time in the here in the UK where people think they've had 60-70mph winds when in fact it was barely breaking 45-50mph and I think that is also the case with winds higher up the scale. The truth is winds of say 120kts are fairly rare in landfalling systems, usually to get those sort of winds you really do need a top end cat-4 or a 5...and those really can have terrible results.

[hurricaneCW]

Most people overestimate the winds compared to reality. I saw Youtube videos where it said 70-80 mph winds but the winds were really 40-45 miles per hour. I think this is why the EF tornado scale was created. In reality, we don't need 300mph+ winds to receive complete destruction. Winds of 150-200mph are more than capable of completely obliterating a house, but very rarely does anyone ever witness those type of winds. In hurricanes, maybe only a couple of storms ever generated those kinds of winds onshore, and when they did the damage was total.

Wind can and does do a lot of damage: I mean tornadoes are all about wind and they completely destroy towns. Even in the northeast in March during that strong nor'easter. We had a few gusts near hurricane force or around 70mph. There was widespread damage throughout the area, a lot of power outages, and heavy rainfall. It's pretty scary that a nor'easter equivalent to a 60-70mph tropical storm can cause so much trouble up here. So to imagine a Category 2-3 hurricane with winds of 100-130mph and heavier rainfall would be devastating to my region.

[ocala]

Haven't seen it mentioned but the Daytona Beach through Jacksonville, and Savannah area hasn't been hit in a while.

[Rainband]

TampaFL's comments really point out to me what the real nature of "overdue" is. It's not so much a meteorological term as it is a psychological term. When a population's perception of their risk is seriously out of phase with their actual risk, that is when a place could be considered "overdue" for a storm.

Also, I think the list is interesting in that it tries to look at both the concept of being vulnerable and overdue. We can certainly identify places not on the list that are more vulnerable, and others that have gone a more significant time without being struck, but sometimes you get different - and interesting - results when you try to look at who has a mix of both qualities.

excellent post

[Downdraft]

A lot of talk and rightly so concerning storm surge and hurricane force winds but, I'd like to remind everyone of another hazard that kills people and destroys property. Looking at storms like Agnes when it went through Pennsylvania and the D.C. area, or Floyd's affects on the central east coast and even more recently Fay's affects on Central Florida I'd throw inland flooding into the mix of greatest hazards for vulnerable areas. I'd also add that we talk a lot about cat 4's and cat 5's and where they might hit but again, Houston won't forget tropical storm Allison and any tropical system's story only begins at landfall it certainly doesn't end there too. I would still rather live in Florida where a hurricane is a statistical possibility and not Los Angles where an earthquake is a mathematical certitude.

[cpdaman]

having scrolling thru the archives i find this a good read prior to the season becoming more active

when i think of vulnerable i think of 2 main factors. exposure to large storm surge and accompanying $ dollar damage & ...potential to high end major wind damage (cat 4 and 5 esp.)

on the latter it will be difficult for anyone outside of south and central florida and S. Texas imo to experience these sustained winds because the northern GOM most likely sees weakening hurricane's at landfall as does anyone north of the treasure coast FL (as far as east coast storms go) perhaps the outer banks could see a cat 4 ...but i dunno if they ever have.

on the former the relative storm surge along the east coast of florida (esp. FLL to miami) is much less then say the Northern gulf of mexico. i'm not sure why but i guess it has to do with the slope /depth of the ocean floor perhaps as well as the swell being broken up by the bahamas which notoriously happens unless you have a N angle swell (just ask any surfer south of palm beach county FL) .

with that being said it would seem to me the most vulnerable would be Tampa....West Palm beach...and S. texas...key west as well (because i think they are most vulnerable to drownings in the thousands if a 4/5 directly hit) and perhaps long island

i think the most overdue would need to be clarified...if we are talking about most overdue to for a hurricane period (v. historical odds) ...there are a lot of candidates and i don't have the knowledge to even foster a IMO educated guess right now thou....i think tampa...would be up there....i'm not sure NYC could enter the list because historically it is very very rare for them to be impacted so over due is almost an oxymoron for that area. Perhaps areas like myrtle beach and i would think key west as well given that historically they probably have the highest liklihood of any US city to se a storm's center pass within 25 miles of them (but this is just a guess)

If you look at most overdue for a Very strong hurricane .....i think you would have to include FT. lauderdale and west palm beach on the top of the list if your criteria is a cat 4 or greater....i think it's been over 65 YEARS which seems vmany standard deviations away from what i would excpect given there locale.

so for overdue for a hurricane of any strenghth (v. climo ) i would say tampa bay area

for overdue (v. climo) for a cat 4/5 i would say the Fort lauderdale /West palm beach area (65-70 years) in a very high area not only for hurricanes but also regarding cat 4's and 5's potential (TCHP ) w. S texas being second.


for vulnerable i would say tampa bay due to potential for very large surge and high category winds and key west as well for decent surge potential combined with very flat land not much escape route and potential for very high death toll unfortunately. i would say long island is also pretty vulnerable to a fast moving major storm given the affluent $ value of property in the area and potential for surge in a large hurricane (wether weakening or not) and west palm beach as well due to the high value of million $ beach condos and potential for a cat 4/5 storm. and S texas due to the TCHP for a cat 4/5

these are to be interpreted as opinion and nothing more

[beoumont]

Yeah thetruesms, another point I agree with. If you think about it the highest winds that get above 120kts in a landfalling category-4/5 is usually going to be found in the Nquadrants eyewall and usually the left eyewall won't reach that high unless its a cat-5.

Usually the strongest winds are found in a fairly small region in the RFQ and in that way it isn't much larger then a big tornado probably in terms of where the highest winds are located.

Generally what you say will hold; but not always.

A. The strongest winds at landfall are not in the NE and/or right front quadrant about 30% of the time. (70% of the time, they are).

B. In one extreme case, Andrew, the truly destructive winds affected a stretch of about 15 miles, north to south, along the S. Dade County area. 99% of all telephone and power poles (wood, concrete, and steel) were snapped, bent to the ground, or tilted waaaay over from SW 136 street (the Falls area) south to 312 street in Florida City.

C. If you have a hurricane with an eye of 30 miles across (moving west), even a two mile wide destructive wall cloud surrounding it, at some point in time, will cross at least an area 34 miles along the coastline it crosses. Two miles north of the northern edge of the eye, two miles south of the southern edge of the eye, PLUS the whole 30 miles or so of coastline that gets the eastern and western eyewall on both sides of the hurricane. You can usually add a few more miles, as the most extreme winds are not right at the edge of the eye, but several miles away. (In Charley it was only one mile; but that is the shortest distance I have ever heard).
Going back to Andrew, which had about a 12 mile eye at landfall, the first several miles north of the northern edge of the eye, the first several miles to the south of the southern edge of the eye, and the whole 12 miles that got the eastern and western eyewalls, covered that 15-16 miles or so.

[cpdaman]

Yeah thetruesms, another point I agree with. If you think about it the highest winds that get above 120kts in a landfalling category-4/5 is usually going to be found in the Nquadrants eyewall and usually the left eyewall won't reach that high unless its a cat-5.

Usually the strongest winds are found in a fairly small region in the RFQ and in that way it isn't much larger then a big tornado probably in terms of where the highest winds are located.

Generally what you say will hold; but not always.

C. If you have a hurricane with an eye of 30 miles across (moving west), even a two mile wide destructive wall cloud surrounding it, at some point in time, will cross at least an area 34 miles along the coastline it crosses. Two miles north of the northern edge of the eye, two miles south of the southern edge of the eye, PLUS the whole 30 miles or so of coastline that gets the eastern and western eyewall on both sides of the hurricane. You can usually add a few more miles, as the most extreme winds are not right at the edge of the eye, but several miles away. (In Charley it was only one mile; but that is the shortest distance I have ever heard).
Going back to Andrew, which had about a 12 mile eye at landfall, the first several miles north of the northern edge of the eye, the first several miles to the south of the southern edge of the eye, and the whole 12 miles that got the eastern and western eyewalls, covered that 15-16 miles or so.

regarding his first point you seem to generally agree

and in the spirit of accurately comparing cat4 cat 5 canes v. large tornado's (if there can be)

regarding KWT's second point ("strongest winds.... RFQ isn't much difference in area as tornando) your point C discredits that perspective IMO w some good critical thinking.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

My #1 not overdue but vulnerable is New Orleans including the southshore and northshore. Heck throw all of SE LA in there for that matter. The perfect slow moving w/wnw track the eye could take coming from the southeast gulf into Lake Borgne and Ponchartrain flooding everything. Then of course the cat 4/5 winds for hours over all the landmass finishing everything else off. One of the worse case scenarios for us that has yet to happen, but one day...