Top 5 Hurricane Vulnerable & Overdue Cities

[SFLcane]

Thought i'd post a link to this interesting article on the top 5 cities most vulnerable to a tropical cyclone put together by Rick Knabb early this morning from weather.com

1-Miami/Ft. Lauderdale
2-New York City
3-Tampa Bay
4-Savannah, GA
5-Atlantic City, NJ

http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/top5-most-vulnerable-overdue-hurricane-cities_2010-07-14

[KWT]

I suppose Miami is top only because it has a greater risk of getting hit by a cat-4/5 then most, but I'd imagine with Andrew still not being that many years ago New York/Tampa would be at more risk...esp Tampa, I feel its a bit like pre-Katrina New Orleans, a belief that a TC just won't hit there and thats been fueled further by the likes of Charley.

[wxman57]

It all depends on how one defines "vulnerable". Another significant hit on New Orleans could mean the end of the city. If Ike had hit about 30 miles down the TX coast, then Galveston Bay and the Houston Ship Channel would have taken the brunt of the surge, knocking out about 30% of the U.S. production of gasoline for a year or more. That would certainly be a big blow to the U.S. economy vs. a hit in Tampa, Savannah, Atlantic City or even Miami.

[KWT]

Yeah any major hurricane making a direct hit on any major city is obviously going to cause a big hit on the economy, certainly could see a 100 billion dollar storm if we saw any huge system hit, I'd dread to think if a 95-105kts hurricane hit New York though...

[AdamFirst]

New Orleans is still number one. They're just as vulnerable as ever.

They should be number 1 bolded, italicized and underlined because of the toxic oil soup that's just sitting offshore.

If you're saying overdue, I'd put either NYC or Tampa as number one...NYC to a lesser extent because some weird stuff's got to happen for that scenario to come about.

[HurricaneJoe22]

Andrew had minimal effects on the Fort Lauderdale area, and Miami itself largely was spared the storm's wrath. South Dade County, south of Miami, is where Andrew hit and did its devestation. Andrew was pretty small and compact and moved through fairly quickly, so I think Miami saw maybe Category 2 conditions and Fort Lauderdale might have received only tropical storm conditions with maybe some hurricane gusts. Not sure on that, just trying to remember as it was 18 years ago now. I was living northwest of Fort Lauderdale, so I didn't have much at all where I was.

[hurricaneCW]

Tampa is far more likely to witness a hurricane than New York City based on statistics. If we're talking about which city is likely to get hit, then it's no contest. Any coastal city at 30N south is much more likely to be hit than coastal cities 30N north. The few exceptions are of course parts of North Carolina, Cape Cod, and even Long Island but we're talking about major cities, not general locations.

Plus there is no such thing as being overdue. Mother nature will hit whoever it wants. There is no realistic average of being hit when it comes to such a small location as a city. Plus there are other factors that constantly change like the active hurricane cycle. Obviously if more hurricanes form in a season, the chances of being hit go up, it's a no brainer. Vulnerability is something completely different. Now we're talking about the damage that could be expected if a hurricane does hit a major city.

The impacts of a Cat 4/5 direct hit on Tampa will pale in comparison to a Cat 3 direct hit on NYC. Even though both impacts would be tremendous and devastating, NYC would fair much worse than Tampa. In fact, it would probably be the greatest U.S. nature disaster since maybe Galveston (at least when talking about potential loss of life not the cost of damage). A very high population living near the coast where they are not prepared for a hurricane just oozes vulnerability.

[KWT]

Without a doubt the hurricane hit on New York would be the worst possible thing that could happen in terms of tropical systems making landfall in the US, probably even more so then another big strike on New Orleans at this stage.

I remember similar threads in 2005 about New Orleans, I hope we aren't tempting fate here!

[TampaFl]

Hurricanecw

- IMHO I think a direct hit to the Tampa Bay Area by a cat.4 or 5 would have a more devestating effect than a cat 3 on NYC. People here in the Bay area to this day will not evacuate their homes. I believe reading a couple of years ago a study was done after Hurricane Charley & they found out that over 50% of the population who lived in evacuation zones did not leave as they were instructed to. Now that is down right scarey! The perseption here in Tampa is it will never hit here, or if it does it will not be as bad as they say it will be. So the loss of life in the Bay area IMHO would be greater than in NYC.

Thoughts & comments welcomed.
Robert

[StormClouds63]

Despite all the terrible human suffering and tremendous flood damage, Katrina was not the worse case scenario for New Orleans. On the Monday following Katrina, national news media were proclaiming that New Orleans once again "dodged a major bullet." Katrina had weakened from a category 5 to category 3. NO had avoided the right/front quadrant of the storm, leaving the Mississippi coast in ruins from the storm surge. It was not until the levees gave way on Tuesday that the terrible flooding and, consequently, the horrible human suffering, began to take place.

A category 5 hurricane, moving west/northwest and approaching NO, is the absolute worst case scenario. It would be a path similar to the 1947 storm:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1947/4/track.gif

[KWT]

The 1947 storm wouldn't just be severe for NO but also for for Florida, seems like it followed a track alot like Andrew. That sort of storm would overload this board you'd have to think!

But yeah as you say a big strong category-4 hitting NO on that track would be pretty horrific.

[thetruesms]

TampaFL's comments really point out to me what the real nature of "overdue" is. It's not so much a meteorological term as it is a psychological term. When a population's perception of their risk is seriously out of phase with their actual risk, that is when a place could be considered "overdue" for a storm.

Also, I think the list is interesting in that it tries to look at both the concept of being vulnerable and overdue. We can certainly identify places not on the list that are more vulnerable, and others that have gone a more significant time without being struck, but sometimes you get different - and interesting - results when you try to look at who has a mix of both qualities.

[petit_bois]

New Orleans is still number one. They're just as vulnerable as ever.

They should be number 1 bolded, italicized and underlined because of the toxic oil soup that's just sitting offshore.

If you're saying overdue, I'd put either NYC or Tampa as number one...NYC to a lesser extent because some weird stuff's got to happen for that scenario to come about.

I would have to agree about New Orleans... and Katrina was nothing more than a glancing blow for the city (levy break was devastation).
I don't beleive New orleans has sustained Cat 3 winds in a long long time.

[KWT]

New Orleans got something like low end category-2 winds I believe from Katrina, as has been said it was far from a huge blow with regards to winds, it was the surge that did the real damage.

Also I totally agree with the idea that 'overdue' is a psychological term

[NOLA2010]

New Orleans got something like low end category-2 winds I believe from Katrina, as has been said it was far from a huge blow with regards to winds, it was the surge that did the real damage.

Also I totally agree with the idea that 'overdue' is a psychological term

In early July 2005, New Orleans had a Category 1 Hurricane named Cindy. We had a lot trees that got knocked but nothing compared to what happened later.

I hate the term "overdue" when people talk about places where Hurricane could go. Nobody is "overdue" for Hurricanes. It either happens or it doesn't, it is not like we or anybody else can decide. And New Orleans is not in as bad shape as you may think. Everyday our levees are being worked on and improved and I am confident that IF we had a Category 3 Hurricane this year, our levees would do just fine. We might not be where we were before Katrina, but were getting there.

[KWT]

I sure hope that would be the case, but pre-Katrina standards weren't good enough to stop Katrina, so if they aren't upto that level yet...well...

I suppose you could say Cindy was a little pre-empting to what was to come that season. Still as you say you certainly can't decide whether it happens or not really can ya, just need to hope it doesn't happen at all.

Pray for the best, prepare for the worst I spose is the best saying of all.

[Category 5]

Everytime someone says "due" or "overdue" I wanna put my fist through my monitor

and nobody seems to understand how bad a Jersey Shore hurricane could actually be.

[StormClouds63]

Regarding the 1947 path of the September hurricane:

Another similar path looked to be Elena (1985). After days of erratic movement, it paralleled the Florida and Alabama coasts before moving inland in Mississippi. Had it remained over water for another few hours, it would have struck NO at its most vulnerable point.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1985/ELENA/track.gif

Imagine this board had we had the Internet during the track of Elena in 1985.

[NOLA2010]

I sure hope that would be the case, but pre-Katrina standards weren't good enough to stop Katrina, so if they aren't upto that level yet...well...

I suppose you could say Cindy was a little pre-empting to what was to come that season. Still as you say you certainly can't decide whether it happens or not really can ya, just need to hope it doesn't happen at all.

Pray for the best, prepare for the worst I spose is the best saying of all.

When I said we are not where we were pre-Katrina, what I meant was the city as a whole, not the levees. Are levees are better than they were pre-Katrina because before Katrina the levees were done as a half-a$$ job.

[Florida1118]

Lets face it. Anywhere A Major Storm hits will be horrific. Now, Pretty much any Ctiy on the Atlantic/GOM is Vulnerable. Now, Cities in FL have a risk for experiencing something because FL Juts out of Georgia. TX and other Gulf states have a great chance of being hit because once something enters the Gulf, it doesn't come out. We all know were at risk, and i dont like looking at people Opinions of Cities, Because they likely wont happen. Someones website said Tampa has a 1/21 chance of getting hit. Well, its been almost 90 Years. Nothing. Close calls, but nothing. We just all need to prepare. Everyone is at risk in any year, So Prepare for the Worst, hope for the best. Good luck to us all this season!