Winter 2010-11 for the Southern Plains

[Portastorm]

It's July 11th. The tropics are quiet for the moment. The severe storm action at least in Texas has quieted down. So, what better time to start looking at next winter for the Southern Plains than right now!

La Nina looks to be establishing itself and there is some speculation we could be in for a strong Nina this coming winter. That usually means lots of frowns in this forum. It appears the CFS forecast right now is heading in that direction. Basically very dry and very warm (seasonally that is) for the Southern Plains. Graphics below. Let's discuss!

TEMPERATURE



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PRECIPITATION


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[vbhoutex]

I'll be interested to see if the early temp and precip progs pan out. What I see on the temps for the rest of summer doesn't make sense to me unless something strange happens considering there is the probability of another strong heat ridge across much of the South coming up. The precip maps make more sense, but indicate very little in the way of apparent tropical moisture during the season in the Gulf regions which find strange also.

[Ntxw]

La nina! Personal hunch but I don't think it will be as cold\snowy as last winter for the southern plains. Probably an event or two north of I-20. Though I do believe the cool trend will continue since cold winters usually come in cycles and the sun hasn't exactly been active this year either. I think best places for snow this year in Texas would be closer to the New Mexico border. Many are thinking an east based la nina which could be a good thing for us

[Portastorm]

Not sure about an east-based Nina ... what I have been reading (mostly over on the Eastern forum) is a +AO, +QBO, moderate to strong Nina with the likelihood of a strong persistent SE ridge, making the storm track through the Colorado/Texas panhandle area up into the western Great Lakes.

My recollection of AUS weather during those types of winters are mild with a lot of drizzle and fog days.

[somethingfunny]

I'm already looking forward to my mid-80s January burner coming up. Amarillo's only a six hour drive away if I want to see snow.

[Ntxw]

Not sure about an east-based Nina ... what I have been reading (mostly over on the Eastern forum) is a +AO, +QBO, moderate to strong Nina with the likelihood of a strong persistent SE ridge, making the storm track through the Colorado/Texas panhandle area up into the western Great Lakes.

My recollection of AUS weather during those types of winters are mild with a lot of drizzle and fog days.

Not sure if it will stay that way, but take a look at the colder origins off the S. American coast. East-based atm. Though I'm no expert on this, just pointing out what I see.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstanim.shtml

[Portastorm]

Not sure about an east-based Nina ... what I have been reading (mostly over on the Eastern forum) is a +AO, +QBO, moderate to strong Nina with the likelihood of a strong persistent SE ridge, making the storm track through the Colorado/Texas panhandle area up into the western Great Lakes.

My recollection of AUS weather during those types of winters are mild with a lot of drizzle and fog days.

Not sure if it will stay that way, but take a look at the colder origins off the S. American coast. East-based atm. Though I'm no expert on this, just pointing out what I see.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstanim.shtml

Totally agree that right now it looks east-based. I had read some posts suggesting a west-based Nina later this year but its hard to argue with the data. And I'm far from my an expert myself! Regardless, I don't think you North Texans are going to see the snow bonanza you saw last year!

[Ntxw]

Panhandle's year . Amazing how time flies, here we are in the midst of scorching heat. But soon (about a month or so) the kids go back to school, the leaves change color, and the first true cold front will wipe away this heat and humidity can't wait! Seems like just yesterday we were talking about spring snow!

[iorange55]

The forecast doesn't seem good for us, but I think last year was the like first year we were predicted to have cooler than average temps. As long as we get a snow or two, and some nice cold weather. I won't complain too much.

Anything but this awful heat. Only a little over a month, and the heat will be fading!

[Tireman4]

The forecast doesn't seem good for us, but I think last year was the like first year we were predicted to have cooler than average temps. As long as we get a snow or two, and some nice cold weather. I won't complain too much.

Anything but this awful heat. Only a little over a month, and the heat will be fading!

Are you sure? I thought September's were toasty too in Dallas.

[Portastorm]

It actually hasn't been too bad this summer so far in Austin. In fact, we have yet to record a 100-degree day which is unusual this late in July. Lots of humidity this summer though. But it beats last summer's High Pressure Ridge of Death!

[Ntxw]

The forecast doesn't seem good for us, but I think last year was the like first year we were predicted to have cooler than average temps. As long as we get a snow or two, and some nice cold weather. I won't complain too much.

Anything but this awful heat. Only a little over a month, and the heat will be fading!

Are you sure? I thought September's were toasty too in Dallas.

They can be, but at least nighttime temps are refreshing into the 60s. Unlike the current stretch of 80s for lows...my oh my. Cool nights make up for hot days. Anyone have maps of what La Nina winters are like in the states?

[somethingfunny]

^ Does not include this past year's El Nino

[gboudx]

The forecast doesn't seem good for us, but I think last year was the like first year we were predicted to have cooler than average temps. As long as we get a snow or two, and some nice cold weather. I won't complain too much.

Anything but this awful heat. Only a little over a month, and the heat will be fading!

Are you sure? I thought September's were toasty too in Dallas.

They can be, but at least nighttime temps are refreshing into the 60s. Unlike the current stretch of 80s for lows...my oh my. Cool nights make up for hot days. Anyone have maps of what La Nina winters are like in the states?

I've been impressed that we haven't start some Baatan Death March of consecutive 100 degree days yet. So far the DFW summer hasn't been too bad. But the peak is yet to come.

[Ntxw]

July hasn't been to bad for DFW, had some nice rainy days. June however was no walk in the park. Southern half of Texas is fairing better this summer which is well deserved from last summer. I heard winter is starting early in western Canada and Alaska this year (probably typical for La Nina). Perhaps that's where we should look for our first coming of crisp air since that's where it usually comes from anyway.

[Portastorm]

Good points/info Ntxw! Early autumns are synonymous with La Nina and I can see a two-fold benefit in that we can enjoy some cooler temps and it should steer any tropical mischief away from Texas.

Perhaps an early autumn and winter but moderation in early 2011? Wouldn't surprise me to see an ice storm threat in December for much of central/north Texas followed by a warm/dry-ish winter. I've seen it before in La Nina years.

[srainhoutx]

Don't forget about a late December Arctic Outbreak. Even La Nina years can throw a curveball or two.

Edit to add: We had a lot of great discussions in various threats last Winter. I look forward to the return of our Pro Mets and Winter Weather Watchers in a few month after the Tropical Season.

[Ntxw]

Accuwx has the first winter outlook posted! Last year Bastardi was pretty much on par with his map in the summer. Again as signs of la nina continues, this winter doesn't bode well for the southern plains or the deep south if you like cold and snow according to the outlook.

But like srainhoutx and Portastorm said, he too mentions cold spells early in the season.

Most long term models are predicting moderate to strong La Nina holding grip all winter.

[somethingfunny]

Accuwx has the first winter outlook posted! Last year Bastardi was pretty much on par with his map in the summer. Again as signs of la nina continues, this winter doesn't bode well for the southern plains or the deep south if you like cold and snow according to the outlook.

But like srainhoutx and Portastorm said, he too mentions cold spells early in the season.

[b]Most long term models are predicting moderate to strong La Nina holding grip all winter.[.b]

Great, that usually means a heavy wildfire season up here.

[CaptinCrunch]

Current SST show a very weak La Nina, but till we have 3 consective months it wont be offical. But as of now La Nina is favored for this winter, just hope it's a weak La Nina as it will allow us to have a better shot of a more balanced winter as we tend to get during Neutral winters.

The only good thing La Nina winters have going for them are the chance of a buckeled N jet stream that dumps arctic air into the deep south. While we trend to be warmer and drier during La Nina winters, the chance for extreme arctic outbreaks for short periods of time are higher, but winter precip chances are much lower due to the storm track being across the mid section of the U.S.


Aug 5th, 2010

NOAA announced today that, as predicted last spring, La Niña has formed in the tropical Pacific Ocean.