WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONSON

[Chacor]

In Vietnamese (southern dialect), "CONSON" (or Côn Sơn) would be pronounced /konˈʂɜːn/ (KON-SHEN).

[dexterlabio]

I don't think you can make that comparison, really. Wutip (which actually developed south of Pabuk) was a clear different disturbance which formed its own circulation. In this case the convection appears to be associated with Conson's LLCC.

My bad. Yeah, Pabuk was far off Taiwan then on its south was a developing invest, later became Wutip. On this case, Conson is just nearby those cluster of clouds. Whether it will also form its own circulation, it would be possible if Conson moves away.

On the other hand, we are experiencing mild winds and a little rain as of this moment. The night sky is dark and cloudy.

[drdavisjr]

From wunderground:

Wednesday
Thunderstorm. High: 30 °C . Wind SSW 21 km/h . 100% chance of precipitation (water equivalent of 195.38 mm). Heat Index: 35 °C .
Tropical Storm Conson
» Distance from this city: 51 km
» Estimated wind speed: 92 km/h

[dexterlabio]

I see many fellow Metro Manila people in here. What do you think we should do now? The core is inching closer to our area and yet the people don't know that Conson most probably would hit Manila rather than the Aurora province. I saw many billboards and signages still up on the streets. I wish people won't be caught by surprise.

[ManilaTC]

Im doing my part, Im issuing hourly updates on Facebook. I was hoping to have my own storm update site up, but looks like it would be a Blogger site for now.

[drdavisjr]

I see many fellow Metro Manila people in here. What do you think we should do now? The core is inching closer to our area and yet the people don't know that Conson most probably would hit Manila rather than the Aurora province. I saw many billboards and signages still up on the streets. I wish people won't be caught by surprise.

Over the last year, I've seen GMA use JTWC as one of their sources for TC updates. Not sure why they chose not to do so this storm.

[ManilaTC]

This storm is bound to take us by surprise.

[drdavisjr]

ANC was just interviewing the head of PAGASA:

http://twitter.com/ANCALERTS

Never mentions Metro Manila

[dexterlabio]

I think we are starting to feel it here in Quezon City. When is the storm supposed to be in the vicinity of Metro Manila? I couldn't convert the time included on the JTWC forecast into our own time.

[drdavisjr]

I think we are starting to feel it here in Quezon City. When is the storm supposed to be in the vicinity of Metro Manila? I couldn't convert the time included on the JTWC forecast into our own time.

We are 8 hrs ahead of UTC/Zulu time.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Some really deep convection erupting near centre at the moment.

For our friends in Manila, sounds like a perfect night to stay in with a few beers, a DVD (until the power fails) a torch and a good book / playing cards.

Hopefully due to the rather rapid forward speed of the storm, flooding won't be as bad as say it was with Ketsana. The relatively small wind field should also help keep wind damage to a smaller extent.

I notice flights tonight from Manila to Hong Kong are still scheduled.

[oaba09]

I think we are starting to feel it here in Quezon City. When is the storm supposed to be in the vicinity of Metro Manila? I couldn't convert the time included on the JTWC forecast into our own time.

We are 8 hrs ahead of UTC/Zulu time.

I'm giving PAGASA a chance...They have an 11 pm update later so I hope they make the necessary changes in their advisory...

[dexterlabio]

ANC was just interviewing the head of PAGASA:

http://twitter.com/ANCALERTS

Never mentions Metro Manila

What are they talking about? Though Mr. Nilo is correct in saying that Conson will make landfall in Northern Quezon, but he should also realize that it will also cut through Metro Manila after passing Northern Quezon. What are they planning to do...


If I were them, I would make an amended bulletin for this, especially now that Conson is taking on a fast pace towards Manila. It's odd to hear public storm signal being raised from 1 to 3 over here. As of now, rains and winds are picking up...

[drdavisjr]

ANC was just interviewing the head of PAGASA:

http://twitter.com/ANCALERTS

Never mentions Metro Manila

What are they talking about? Though Mr. Nilo is correct in saying that Conson will make landfall in Northern Quezon, but he should also realize that it will also cut through Metro Manila after passing Northern Quezon. What are they planning to do...

Oaba09 is right. They still have the 11pm update. Let's see what they say then

[dexterlabio]

I'm giving PAGASA a chance...They have an 11 pm update later so I hope they make the necessary changes in their advisory...

You're right. I wish they will do that in the next advisory. We still got some hours before Conson's anticipated passage here in the metro.

[oaba09]

Starting to feel the winds a little....not much yet....

[dexterlabio]

Conson has weakened, according to JMA.

<Analyses at 13/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°40'(14.7°)
E122°20'(122.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 14/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°25'(16.4°)
E118°10'(118.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area Wide 240km(130NM)
<Forecast for 15/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°40'(18.7°)
E115°00'(115.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 330km(180NM)
<Forecast for 16/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°30'(20.5°)
E112°40'(112.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 440km(240NM)

[oaba09]

55 knots per JMA



<Analyses at 13/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°40'(14.7°)
E122°20'(122.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 14/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°25'(16.4°)
E118°10'(118.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area Wide 240km(130NM)
<Forecast for 15/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°40'(18.7°)
E115°00'(115.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 330km(180NM)
<Forecast for 16/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°30'(20.5°)
E112°40'(112.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 440km(240NM)

[Chacor]

JMA has weakened it to 55 kt. Calling for 80 kt in 72 hours though.

WTPQ20 RJTD 131200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1002 CONSON (1002)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131200UTC 14.7N 122.3E FAIR
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 141200UTC 16.4N 118.2E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 151200UTC 18.7N 115.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 161200UTC 20.5N 112.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

[ManilaTC]

Here is my take on this, they will downgrade Conson into a Tropical Storm (which is a high end one ehehe) lower signal #2 in Camarines Norte (for the eye has passed) and place N Quezon, Manila and Rizal under #3 as they will have conson into a 110 kph storm...