WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONSON

[dexterlabio]

I remembered on this case Typhoon Pabuk (Chedeng in PAGASA) in 2007 WPAC season. After passing in Batanes-Taiwan straight, a cloud cluster behind it became an invest, and few hours later became Tropical storm Wutip (Dodong). Both of them affected Luzon via enhanced southwest monsoon. However, in that case, Pabuk was already dissipating in Hongkong while Wutip was developing in Batanes.

[oaba09]

The PAGASA track is still different w/ the JTWC track.....I can't locate the center of the system so I'm not really certain what track it's following...any help will be appreciated...thanks!

[dexterlabio]

I am more confident on the JTWC track. It seems that the storm is still moving west, and I wonder how PAGASA will plan to change the storm warning signals on some places, especially here in Metro Manila.

[Chacor]

I remembered on this case Typhoon Pabuk (Chedeng in PAGASA) in 2007 WPAC season. After passing in Batanes-Taiwan straight, a cloud cluster behind it became an invest, and few hours later became Tropical storm Wutip (Dodong). Both of them affected Luzon via enhanced southwest monsoon. However, in that case, Pabuk was already dissipating in Hongkong while Wutip was developing in Batanes.

I don't think you can make that comparison, really. Wutip (which actually developed south of Pabuk) was a clear different disturbance which formed its own circulation. In this case the convection appears to be associated with Conson's LLCC.

[oaba09]

I am more confident on the JTWC track. It seems that the storm is still moving west, and I wonder how PAGASA will plan to change the storm warning signals on some places, especially here in Metro Manila.

That's my amateur observation too.......The system's becoming a bit too disorganized so I'm having a harder time of locating the center....Thanks!!

[Chacor]

Has anyone looked at the latest microwaves off NRL yet? They might help determine the centre.

[ManilaTC]

Its just off the coast of Daet Camarines Sur...
Hope PAGASA puts the Dopplers online soon...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... dt/03W.GIF

[ManilaTC]

[Chacor]

Some incredibly deep convection in the central convective mass. Looks like heavy rain's due.

Very disorganised at the moment though.



Wouldn't be surprised if the centre was becoming a bit exposed.

[oaba09]

Found something, I'm not sure if this helps....

[ManilaTC]

I am more confident on the JTWC track. It seems that the storm is still moving west, and I wonder how PAGASA will plan to change the storm warning signals on some places, especially here in Metro Manila.

I really find it stupid not to raise to signal #2 as it clearly shows that the storm is going head on to Metro Manila in about less than 12 hours!!!

[drdavisjr]

The PAGASA track is still different w/ the JTWC track.....I can't locate the center of the system so I'm not really certain what track it's following...any help will be appreciated...thanks!

Hi Oaba9, I think this is it.

[Typhoon10]

This shows 2 tracks to the West of HK, with another taking a sharp turn and East of HK

http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/st ... racks.html

[Chacor]

This shows 2 tracks to the West of HK, with another taking a sharp turn and East of HK

http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/st ... racks.html

The red track is the official JTWC forecast.

I'm not buying the AVNO. It's not all that reliable, and that doesn't seem very likely at the moment.

[P.K.]

Looking at the other 06/09Z advisories there is also a split as to if this will strengthen anymore.

KMA have a 60kt STS forecast to reach 78kts in 72hrs.

** WTKO20 RKSL 130600 ***
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 6
NAME STS 1002 CONSON
ANALYSIS
POSITION 130600UTC 14.5N 123.5E
MOVEMENT W 12KT
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 60KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 140600UTC 16.1N 119.2E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 70KT
48HR
POSITION 150600UTC 18.0N 115.9E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 74KT
72HR
POSITION 160600UTC 20.5N 114.0E WITHIN 215NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 78KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


CMA have a 33m/s TY which whilst it is forecast to regain it's current strength they don't expect it to get much higher than it currently is.

** WTPQ20 BABJ 130600 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY CONSON 1002 (1002) INITIAL TIME 130600 UTC
00HR 14.3N 123.5E 975HPA 33M/S
30KTS 150KM
50KTS 50KM
P12HR WNW 25KM/H
P+24HR 15.5N 118.8E 980HPA 30M/S
P+48HR 17.8N 115.5E 975HPA 33M/S
P+72HR 20.1N 112.7E 970HPA 35M/S
P+96HR 22.4N 111.1E 985HPA 25M/S


The HKO also have a 60kt STS and expect a little more strengthening.

** WTPQ20 VHHH 131045 ***

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 130900 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CONSON (1002) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (14.3
N) ONE TWO TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (122.7 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 90 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140900 UTC
ONE SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (16.8 N)
ONE ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (117.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150900 UTC
ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N)
ONE ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (114.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160900 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (20.8 N)
ONE ONE TWO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (112.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

[oaba09]

The PAGASA track is still different w/ the JTWC track.....I can't locate the center of the system so I'm not really certain what track it's following...any help will be appreciated...thanks!

Hi Oaba9, I think this is it.

Thanks!!!!

[oaba09]

From the typhoon2000 website:
+ Forecast Outlook: CONSON (BASYANG) is expected to continue to track slightly Westward and will be over Polillo Island around 9 PM tonight. The center will weaken into a Tropical Storm as it makes landfall over Northern Quezon or over Real, Quezon around midnight tonight and shall be over the northern part of Metro Manila early tomorrow - passing very close to Quezon City between 3-4 AM tomorrow [2AM JUL 14: 14.7N 121.3E]. CONSON shall continue moving across the provinces of Pampanga & Zambales and will be over the South China Sea by tomorrow afternoon [2PM JUL 14: 15.7N 118.8E]. The 3 to 5-Day Long-Range Forecast shows the system making its final landfall on Saturday morning along Southern China or just west of Macau [2PM JUL 17: 22.9N 111.3E]. *Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): There is a possibility that CONSON will continue tracking Westward and pass over Cavite or Manila -- if the strong, steering High Pressure Ridge which extends east of Taiwan will not weaken.--> Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

[ManilaTC]

Just got out to buy candles for its going to be a wild night!
Just hoping that no Ketsana/Ondoy type rainfall happens for its very dangerous and the typhoon is to pass late at night...

[ManilaTC]

Daet, Philippines (Airport)
Updated: 3 hr 9 min 38 sec ago
This station is not reporting!

From Weather Underground... looks like Daet just got KO'ed

[Chacor]

For some reason, JMA is holding steady on its sat estimate of T4.5.

TCNA21 RJTD 131200
CCAA 13120 47644 CONSON(1002) 02147 11223 13134 245// 92812=