WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONSON

[dexterlabio]

I saw that JMA upgraded DT number to 4.5, but take a look at this:

TPPN10 PGTW 130625

A. TYPHOON 03W (CONSON)

B. 13/0532Z

C. 14.0N

D. 123.9E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T3.0/4.0/W0.5/24HRS STT: W1.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .50 ON LOG 10
SPIRAL YIELDING 2.5 DT. PT AGREES. MET YIELDS 3.0. DBO MET.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


ROSS

That's JTWC's latest satfix, are they now saying that Conson has weakened? I also couldn't see where the "eye" of Conson is located, can someone post a much clearer view of the center?

In Quezon city, the sun has appeared once again, but the clouds remain dark. It looks like the same thing as Mirinae last year, guessing if it will pass directly, pass north, or pass a few kilometers south of Manila. I wonder which path Conson will take this time.

[dexterlabio]

[Chacor]

That's JTWC's latest satfix, are they now saying that Conson has weakened?

According to their analysis of satellite and microwave imagery, their application of the Dvorak technique suggests a weakening, yes.

JMA is holding at 60 knots.
WTPQ20 RJTD 130600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1002 CONSON (1002)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130600UTC 14.5N 123.5E GOOD
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 140600UTC 16.0N 119.4E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 150600UTC 17.7N 116.2E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 160600UTC 19.7N 113.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

[oaba09]

<Analyses at 13/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°30'(14.5°)
E123°30'(123.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 14/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°00'(16.0°)
E119°25'(119.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area Wide 260km(140NM)
<Forecast for 15/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°40'(17.7°)
E116°10'(116.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 330km(180NM)
<Forecast for 16/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°40'(19.7°)
E113°40'(113.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 440km(240NM)

[dexterlabio]

Based on JMA forecast, Conson is at 14.5N 123.5E, and JTWC latest satfix estimated the core in 14.0N 123.9E. It could be Conson took a northwest run a while ago OR either of the two agencies couldn't pinpoint the exact location of its center. I am also puzzled on the coordinates of Conson because the deep convection has become somewhat scattered.

[Typhoon10]

Surely Conson will lose some of its strength over the Philippines but once back over water will regain strength and structure?

[dexterlabio]

Surely Conson will lose some of its strength over the Philippines but once back over water will regain strength and structure?

JTWC and JMA are telling two different scenarios. JTWC is for Conson's gradual weakening once it enters South China sea, while JMA forecasts favors the storm intensifying over South China sea before it hits somewhere near Hongkong.

[oaba09]

Based on JMA forecast, Conson is at 14.5N 123.5E, and JTWC latest satfix estimated the core in 14.0N 123.9E. It could be Conson took a northwest run a while ago OR either of the two agencies couldn't pinpoint the exact location of its center. I am also puzzled on the coordinates of Conson because the deep convection has become somewhat scattered.

I think they're having a tough time finding the eye of the system...

[dexterlabio]

^Yeah, and now am just waiting for the next JTWC issue.

[Chacor]

The circulation centre is not always an eye. The storm might not have an eye at all at the moment.

[oaba09]

Conson is not looking good right now.....

[drdavisjr]

Not sure but this appears to me to be the center of Conson.

[Chacor]

JTWC has dropped to 65 knots, barely a typhoon.

They're forecasting weakening here on out all the way.

WTPN31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 03W (CONSON) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 14.3N 123.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 123.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 14.7N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.7N 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.9N 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.9N 115.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 20.5N 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 22.9N 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 25.3N 109.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 14.4N 123.0E.
TYPHOON (TY) 03W (CONSON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SLIGHT
WEAKENING DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, A 130455Z AMSR-E 36 GHZ IMAGE
SHOWS A SMALL SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WITH A SMALL
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THIS SIGNATURE ALONG WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 45 TO 77 KNOTS SUPPORT THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 65
KNOTS. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION
BASED ON THE AMSR-E IMAGE. TY 03W CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD TOWARD
MANILA UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER AIR
DATA FROM LAOAG (98223) AND XISHA DAO (59981) INDICATE STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AT 45-70 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH CHINA
SEA. THEREFORE, TY 03W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN LUZON BUT SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS TRACK WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE GFS, WHICH DEPICTS AN ERRONEOUS NORTHWARD TRACK
TOWARD TAIWAN. TY 03W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD (BUT SHOULD MAINTAIN MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH OVER THE WARM WATER) DUE TO THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG NORTHERLY VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STR
ENTRENCHED OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. TY 03W WILL MAKE LANDFALL SOUTHWEST
OF HONG KONG NEAR TAU 72 AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND AFTER TAU 96.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.//

[KWT]

Its looking a little sheared right now IMO and thats causing a lop sided presentation. I once again don't think thats a 65kts presentation but there ya go.

[drdavisjr]

Maybe it will strengthen a bit when it gets back over water in the Lamon Bay, before projected landfall south of Infanta, Quezon.

[dexterlabio]

Its LLCC is partly exposed.

[dexterlabio]

^Wait, is it just me or is there really a separate cluster of clouds at the Philippine sea? I doubt that is still a part of Conson's circulation...

[ManilaTC]

Oh yes it is and it looks like its forming around 130-135E

[oaba09]

<Analyses at 13/09 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°30'(14.5°)
E122°50'(122.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 14/09 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°00'(16.0°)
E118°40'(118.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area Wide 260km(140NM)
<Forecast for 15/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°40'(17.7°)
E116°10'(116.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 330km(180NM)
<Forecast for 16/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°40'(19.7°)
E113°40'(113.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 440km(240NM)

[Chacor]

Oh yes it is and it looks like its forming around 130-135E

Unlikely, I'd say. It's way too associated with Conson to develop on its own. I don't think I've ever seen a reverse Fujiwhara occur.