WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONSON

[KWT]

Yeah I had a feeling this one may end up a little further south then predicited, yet another one in the last few weeks that has ended up south of the model forecasts, certainly some global trend occuring with that it seems.

[oaba09]

JMA UPDATE:



<Analyses at 13/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°20'(14.3°)
E124°50'(124.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 14/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°50'(15.8°)
E120°30'(120.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area Wide 260km(140NM)
<Forecast for 15/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°20'(17.3°)
E117°10'(117.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 330km(180NM)
<Forecast for 16/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°20'(19.3°)
E113°55'(113.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 440km(240NM)

[Chacor]

The full text output of the above is here: http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... TPQ20.RJTD. Easier to read.

WTPQ20 RJTD 130000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1002 CONSON (1002)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130000UTC 14.3N 124.8E GOOD
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 140000UTC 15.8N 120.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 150000UTC 17.3N 117.2E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 160000UTC 19.3N 113.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[dhoeze]

By the looks of the latest satellite images of Conson, its still moving further
South West South, it this suddenly tracks North North West, my eyes are tellling
me that the track would be over Metro Manila....

[Typhoon10]

Hopefully it wont lose that much strength over the Philippines, get back into the warm waters of the SCS, gain strength upto Cat 4 or 5 Typhoon and head towards HK.

Then me and the HK guys on here can get together!

[Chacor]

Okay, I never thought I'd see such -removed- in the WPac. A Cat 4 storm is not something to be wishing for.

[cycloneye]

JTWC 0300z=70kts

WTPN31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 03W (CONSON) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 14.2N 124.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 124.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 14.7N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 15.3N 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 16.3N 117.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 17.4N 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 19.6N 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 22.4N 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 24.4N 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 124.0E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 19 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.//
NNNN

[Chacor]

Much more southerly/westerly track from JTWC now that has it just 20 nm shy of Manila and 100 nm west of Hong Kong.

[Typhoon10]

Okay, I never thought I'd see such -removed- in the WPac. A Cat 4 storm is not something to be wishing for.

It comes from living in the UK. Then moving to HK, seeing proper rain, yellow/red/black, amazing lightning and thunder and the excitement when they raise the T1,T3 and T8 alerts and the whole of HK goes crazy. I was unlucky enough that when i was here we didnt have a strong storm come near us, or ones that did werent strong.

Then moved to Singapore for 18 months, again saw some amazing lightning, thunder a few squally winds.

And hence part of reason to move back to HK was the chance of seeing a "proper" Typhoon

[Chacor]

Trust me, a Cat 1 or 2 would be more than enough imo. A Cat 4 is insanely strong any way you cut it.

[oaba09]

Still moving WSW...It looks like my location will feel its full force....

[cycloneye]

It looks like the center will pass over or just south of Manila.

[zaqxsw75050]

Cat 4 or 5 is way too extreme... I understand that you want to experience a Typhoon (I haven't been in any tropical cyclone in 10 years, except Ike's outer rainband), but even a strengthening cat 2 making landfall would be more than enough. If I remember right, Typhoon Wanda from 1962 is a cat 2-3 or similar strength and it still is one of the most damaging storm in HK's history.

[Typhoon10]

Cat 4 or 5 is way too extreme... I understand that you want to experience a Typhoon (I haven't been in any tropical cyclone in 10 years, except Ike's outer rainband), but even a strengthening cat 2 making landfall would be more than enough. If I remember right, Typhoon Wanda from 1962 is a cat 2-3 or similar strength and it still is one of the most damaging storm in HK's history.

Hey, I got your message. We should meet up, maybe with Typhoon Hunter if he is interested?

Wasnt Typhoon York the strongest Typhoon to hit HK?

[oaba09]

It looks like the center will pass over or just south of Manila.

If it continues it's current movement, yes, it seems like it'll pass south of manila(like mirinae).....I guess I better start preparing....

[Chacor]

Expecting PAGASA to upgrade this to a typhoon at its next warning in a few minutes.

[dexterlabio]

PAGASA may want to amend their previous bulletin. Don't they think the center of the typhoon has stayed much on the lower latitude than predicted earlier, and it is quite impossible for it to track abruptly on a northwest direction, taking into consideration that the STR above the storm remains strong at the mean time?

I'm a college student right here. Local authorities would suspend the college classes if and only if the eye of the typhoon is right in front of our own eyes. If PAGASA anticipates this typhoon to hit the northern provinces, and JTWC forecast (which tracks Conson to Central and Southern Luzon) turns out right, what will happen to all those students out here later in the afternoon? It is already rainy here in the metro, and I wish we can make it to our homes once the core of Conson nears our area.

[oaba09]

PAGASA may want to amend their previous bulletin. Don't they think the center of the typhoon has stayed much on the lower latitude than predicted earlier, and it is quite impossible for it to track abruptly on a northwest direction, taking into consideration that the STR above the storm remains strong at the mean time?

I'm a college student right here. Local authorities would suspend the college classes if and only if the eye of the typhoon is right in front of our own eyes. If PAGASA anticipates this typhoon to hit the northern provinces, and JTWC forecast (which tracks Conson to Central and Southern Luzon) turns out right, what will happen to all those students out here later in the afternoon? It is already rainy here in the metro, and I wish we can make it to our homes once the core of Conson nears our area.

I'm actually thinking of letting my employees go home early......what do you think? One of my employees live in the Bulacan area so if the JTWC forecast holds true, her area will be hit directly....

[HURAKAN]

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