About as quiet as can be

[hurricaneCW]

Well if anything the heat potential can continue to build throughout the Atlantic. I know temperatures off my coast (NJ) are running over 3 degrees Celsius above normal (77 to 79 degrees) and the MDR continues to gradually warm both on and beneath the surface. The SAL makes me think we'll have more homegrown systems but with a lot of quality instead of a few weak tropical storms. I don't know what will happen with the SAL by August so it remains to be seen.

[rockyman]

For those in the CONUS, looks like closer to home might be the area to watch this week:



Note, the above map will be updated at 4pm today (Monday).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... ghaz.shtml

[KWT]

Not sure there is really much risk of anything developing this year, of course if there was a spot that has a better shot it is indeed in the W.Caribbean which is shielded away from the SAL but still nothing really seems out there for now.

[StormClouds63]

CZ and others who are thinking a slower start doesn't mean as much activity down the line...I'll quickly reel off a list of years, and then later I'll give you the one link that binds them altogether though I'm sure you'll know lol...all these years came in at least 20% above average in terms of the ACE btw...

1958: 121 ACE, 10/7/5
1967: 122 ACE, 8/6/1
1980: 147 ACE, 11/9/2 (all from now on are above 2008 in ACE...)
1969: 159 ACE, 18/11/5
1999: 177 ACE, 12/8/5
1998: 182 ACE, 14/10/3
1955: 199 ACE, 12/9/6
1961: 205 ACE, 11/8/7
2004: 225 ACE, 14/9/6
1950: 243 ACE, 13/11/8

Note how all but 3 of those years had over 5 major hurricanes, and all but 1999 had at least 1 category 5 hurricane as well...1999 just misses out but it had 2 hurricanes that were at 155mph...

So what links all those seasons then?....

I'm guessing the first hurricane of the season didn't form until the month of August?

[KWT]

All of those seasons had either 1 or 0 Named storms by the end of July, though your answer probably does count for a number of those as well.

[HurrMark]

If you go back to the beginning of the active period, 15 is roughly average. I think we will have about that, or slightly more. The window of it matching 1995 (or greater), however, is rapidly closing. I would not be surprised to see an extended "hyperactive" period or two of three named storms in the Atlantic at the same time, however.

Funny how the talk of hyperactivity just rapidly faded over the last week or so. If 92 had a little more oomph and if the Gulf coast was pushed back 50 miles for 95 and TD 2, 2005 comparisons would be rampant right now.

[Aquawind]

The quiet before the storm(s) alright..no worries the season will be bustin a move soon enough. Undoubtedly plenty of worries ahead..as usual for prime time.

[Macrocane]

I think that people is missunderstanding the concept of an hyperactive season, 2010 hurricane season could have "only" 14 or 15 named storms but if they are long lived hurricanes the ACE will be high enough to consider them hyperactive. Look at 1950 with 13/11/8 had an ACE of 243, 1998 with 14/10/3 had an ACE of 182 both of them hyperactive seasons with less than 15 named storms.

[HurrMark]

I think that people is missunderstanding the concept of an hyperactive season, 2010 hurricane season could have "only" 14 or 15 named storms but if they are long lived hurricanes the ACE will be high enough to consider them hyperactive. Look at 1950 with 13/11/8 had an ACE of 243, 1998 with 14/10/3 had an ACE of 182 both of them hyperactive seasons with less than 15 named storms.

True. It took Zeta for 2005 to overtake a 13 storm season in terms of ACE...in a sense, 1950 gave a hurricane aficianado (if they existed back then) a lot of bang for their buck. Same with 1961...it only had 11 storms, but is 5th on the ACE list. Then you have a year like 2002, which had 12 storms, but they were mostly weak, and hence ACE was below normal.

[Scorpion]

Yes, I have a feeling this season will be less in quantity but greater in quality.

[KWT]

Or even better example would be 2007, despite 2 category-5s and 15 storms we still managed to end up below average in terms of ACE, Dean nearly takes up half of the whole total!

Also FWIW 1969 was not a hyperactive season, it just fell short of what was needed in terms of ACE.