Plains/MW/Great Lakes/OVSevere Threat 7/11-7/12

[wx247]

Thought I would start a thread on the potential severe weather the next couple of days.

Here is today's severe weather threat based on the brand new outlook:






I am really concerned about the damaging wind threat, especially across southern portions of the slight risk area... which does include me. Will be keeping an eye on it.

[wx247]

Here is a look at the two watches in effect for the region in this thread:

[KWT]

Pretty sizeable area under the slight warning today, already fairly busy out there in the warned zone.

[wx247]

It has been easy for the storms to tap into the available high wind potential. Quite a few damage reports, according to our local NBC affiliate KY3. They are being brave... breaking into Cardinals baseball like that!

[wx247]

KYTV is reporting that a MO Highway Patrolman is reporting a tornado on the ground in the city of Camdenton!!

[wx247]

Two New Severe Thunderstorm Watches out:

[Dave]

CRAWFORD MO-
445 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN CRAWFORD
COUNTY UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 441 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES WEST OF CHERRYVILLE...OR 11 MILES NORTH OF
SALEM...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHERRYVILLE...AND AREAS BETWEEN COOK STATION AND DILLARD.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
457 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL CRAWFORD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
IRON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...
NORTHERN REYNOLDS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 454 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTH OF BUNKER...OR 18 MILES EAST OF
SALEM...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BIXBY...BUNKER...OATES...REYNOLDS...CORRIDON...BLACK...
CENTERVILLE...LESTERVILLE AND REDFORD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
501 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN BOLLINGER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...
WEST CENTRAL STODDARD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...
SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT.

* AT 458 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 3 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SHOOK...OR 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF WAPPAPELLO LAKE
AREA....MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
SHOOK...
PUXICO...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NOW IS THE TIME TO IMPLEMENT YOUR TORNADO PLAN OF ACTION. SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS IN A BASEMENT...OR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A HOME OR BUILDING.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

&&

[Dave]

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
501 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL LONOKE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN PRAIRIE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS
EXTREME WEST CENTRAL MONROE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS
EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT

* AT 501 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR LONOKE...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CARLISLE...

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1256
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0505 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 112205Z - 112300Z

NERN PLUME OF OLD TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NEWD ACROSS NM AND
LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE
INFLUENCING CONVECTION ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR INTO THE WRN TX
PANHANDLE. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGEST CONVECTION IS FAIRLY
MOIST WITH PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES. GIVEN THE STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT EXIST ALONG THE SFC WIND SHIFT...PRECIP DRAG
MAY ENHANCE THE MICRO BURST THREAT WITH STRONGER TSTMS. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO
WARRANT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...ALTHOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR A MORE ORGANIZED E-W ORIENTED MCS.

..DARROW.. 07/11/2010


ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

[Dave]

REYNOLDS MO-IRON MO-
519 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR IRON AND NORTHERN REYNOLDS
COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 515 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR OATES...OR 23 MILES WEST OF IRONTON...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. LARGE HAIL...OVER AN INCH IN DIAMETER...IS
ALSO LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BLACK...CENTERVILLE...LESTERVILLE AND REDFORD.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
524 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL LONOKE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN PRAIRIE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS
EXTREME WEST CENTRAL MONROE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS
NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

* AT 524 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 11 MILES
NORTHWEST OF STUTTGART MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ULM...
HAMILTON...
SLOVAK...
FAIRMOUNT...
PARKERS CORNER...
ROE...

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1257
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0526 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL NEB...WRN SD...NERN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 453...454...

VALID 112226Z - 112330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
453...454...CONTINUES.

GREATEST SHORT-TERM SEVERE THREAT IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISCRETE CELL/EVOLVING CLUSTER OVER ARTHUR COUNTY NEB. DESPITE VERY
WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW...STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS
SUPPORTING EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40 KT. GIVEN A STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM /SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 30-40 DEG
F/...SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY ON ITS CURRENT E/SEWD TRACK AT 30-35 KT.
AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF WW 454 ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A LOCAL AREAL
EXTENSION...OR AN ADDITIONAL WW.

FARTHER NW...TSTMS HAVE LARGELY STRUGGLED TO BECOME ROBUST EVEN
WITHIN AN AREA OF FORCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SERN MT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVERAGE AND OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION
HAVE LIMITED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS SWRN SD/NERN WY. THUS...OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT MAY REMAIN QUITE MARGINAL/LOCALIZED WITHIN WW 453.

..GRAMS.. 07/11/2010


ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

[Sunshine™]

The forecast is across the map, literally.




The VWP in Dodge is crazy looking.


The VWP in Little Rock isn't as crazy, but still has pretty good spin.