Tropical Wave in the central caribbean

[cycloneye]

Pedro Fernandez , I merged your thread with this one as is about the same area of interest.

[rockyman]

My first attempt at an animated GIF (in years):

[HURAKAN]

All at the mid levels, nothing at the surface

[HURAKAN]

Nice pic

[tolakram]

There are some hints (satellite can be deceiving) at something forming at the surface.

Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=18

Notice that as the day goes on the W->E flow turns NW toward the convection.

[Sanibel]

Looks like a developer but headed towards land.

[Macrocane]

It looks like a mini TS in the IR it even looks like it has banding features but if you look at the visible it doesn't have much spin.

[cycloneye]

Area is mentioned at 8 PM EDT TWO but with Central America on sight,they put it at 0%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 9 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
ABOUT 90 MILES WEST OF LAREDO TEXAS. THESE ADVISORIES CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT32 KWNH.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT AROUND 20 MPH. WHILE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT
EXPECTED BEFORE THIS SYSTEM REACHES CENTRAL AMERICA...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE REFER TO
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[thetruesms]

That seems fair, but it might be interesting to catch it on the flip side; though I must admit I'm not fully up on the environmental setup right now in the EPAC

[HURAKAN]

This system "looks" great but observations don't lie, nothing at the surface

[KWT]

Just moving too fast and too close to land to develop but it did look decent. I suspect this one probably has a fair chance of development in the EPAC more then likely.

[Weatherfreak000]

Curiously enough there is still a moderate amount of vorticity here, convection re-firing as well.

I wonder if a low is trying to develop there still?

[AJC3]

Curiously enough there is still a moderate amount of vorticity here, convection re-firing as well.

I wonder if a low is trying to develop there still?

There is a semi-permanent area of low pressure and cyclonic vorticity in the SW Caribbean sea north of Panama, so convection tends to fire up in that area quite often.

[Weatherfreak000]

Curiously enough there is still a moderate amount of vorticity here, convection re-firing as well.

I wonder if a low is trying to develop there still?

There is a semi-permanent area of low pressure and cyclonic vorticity in the SW Caribbean sea north of Panama, so convection tends to fire up in that area quite often.

Yes, you are right. Thanks for the reminder.

[Sanibel]

That crossover wave is firing a lot of convection. It has depth.